Frances Advisories

[Doc Seminole]

Maybe I am on crack.... maybe it is moving WSW. I am an amateur observer anyway.

[Rainband]

Derecho,

Although I haven't broken out my protractor yet, I'm looking at this morning's satelite imagery and I just don't see what you're referring to with north movement last night. It's still south of 20, and appears to be just about the same place it was when I last looked at it last night. It appears to be heading due west to me.

8PM NHC position: 18.8N

11PM NHC position: 18.9N

2AM NHC position: 19.0N

5AM NHC position: 19.0N

8AM NHC position: 19.2N

I continue to be amazed at the ability of people to see movement with a fairly clear eye, on either radar or satellite, that's at variance to reality.

How many times do I have to tell you to have some respect for the members here. Not everyone has as much experience as you. Gheez lighten up. You add alot of education here but your attitude suprcedes it sometime. Just try to be nice

[feederband]

Yea i also think things have changed....

[Guest]

Picking up speed be good or bad for FL? What would you interpret from this?
...Jennifer...

[BonesXL]

Any ideas how things will change with this new speed info...

[LowMug]

Update from Anguilla 
Mon, 30 Aug 2004 07:54:38 -0400

Beautiful morning here - some clouds in the east and a NE breeze of 6 - 10, but nice.

The trend for Frances is not good

Frances gained quite a bit of latitude overnight...

It's clearly not moving due W. The trend is actually pretty good for you.

Derecho,

Will you chill with the quite a "bit of latitude" already...no need to make the island folk seem safe when things could change...It gained .4 degrees north while gaining 2.5 degrees west...this is not quite a "bit of latitude"...and now she is beginning to quicken her pace which means even more westward gain - she is still a long way away from the US

I'm not sure which is worse ... an optimist or a pessimist

...Go hang out with DESTRUCTION5

[B-Bear]

Picking up speed be good or bad for FL? What would you interpret from this?
...Jennifer...

Still too early to tell, for sure. But the earlier models taking her into south Florida were predicated upon a faster forward speed that would get her to the U.S. before the ridge deteriorated, keeping her further south and west.

[caneman]

Picking up speed be good or bad for FL? What would you interpret from this?
...Jennifer...

Picking up speed would be worse for Florida. Let see if this verifies at 11:00. Assuming I ran the number right it looks to have really picked up speed earlier than expected.

[btsgmdad]

If it continues west like it is, not good.

[x-y-no]

It looked to me like the models anticipated some accelleration (compare their positions to the xtrap). But if you're right about how fast she's moving, then I think that's outstripping them, yes.

I've been trying to figure out why the models slowed her down so much in the recent runs. It seemed to me that accelleration would be natural once the westward turn was complete. I was pretty surprised she moved so slowly last night.

Guess I've still got a lot to learn.

[caneman]

It looked to me like the models anticipated some accelleration (compare their positions to the xtrap). But if you're right about how fast she's moving, then I think that's outstripping them, yes.

I've been trying to figure out why the models slowed her down so much in the recent runs. It seemed to me that accelleration would be natural once the westward turn was complete. I was pretty surprised she moved so slowly last night.

Guess I've still got a lot to learn.

well, I don't proclaim to no alot but by running the numbers it has clearly picked up speed and will get to the 12 hours position about 6 hours earlier than what was forecasted. Remember 60 miles difference in track can make all the difference for Florida.

[Air Force Met]

Just examined the speed issue. Here's the data.

At 0645z. She is located at 19.14N / 56.94W

At 1245z. She is located at 19.22N / 58.08W

So...over the last 6 hours she has moved on a heading of 274 and has covered a distance of 66NM...or 76 statute miles.

So...over 6 hours...her speed is 11 knots...or 13 mph.

The NHC did say they expected her to pick up some speed today and if you take the new speed and extrapolate it out...it ends up just a little further west than forecasted.

[feederband]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004
...CORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...
...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD



probably faster than that

[MWatkins]

Storm2K Special Tropical Update - Hurricane Frances

9:30AM EDT Monday 8/30/2004

...Updated with information for Bahamas in Questions section...

CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVEMENT

Currently...Frances is moving to the west at a faster forward speed of 11 knots...or 12 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 miles per hour...making Fraces a dangerous category three hurricane. Although the core of the hurricane is still expected to pass to the north of the extreme North East Caribbean and Puerto Rico...residents of those islands should continue to monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane until it has safely passed their location.

After becomming less organized during the day yesterday...Frances appears to be intensifying based on the latest available satellite imagery this morning. The eye is better-located in the center of the central dense overcast...and overall outflow has improved as well. Category four intensity is possible later today. Further down the road...although changes in intensity are difficult to predict...overall intensity will fluctuate...but Frances could become a Category 5 hurricane sometime within the next few days.

5 DAY FORECAST MOTION

After last night's synoptic mission by the NOAA Gulfstream aircraft...the global models have come into excellent agreement on track for the next 4 days. Even the NOGAPS model...once a signigicant outlier to the east...is now in line with the other global guidance in calling for a forward motion mostly to the west until 70W...then a WNW motion thereafter. Late in the forecast period...Frances is expected to bend more to the northwest...although there is some disagreement on the exact track the hurricane may take.

The NOGAPS and GFS models bring the core of the hurricane very close to the Florida east coast and suggest a landfall further to the north. This scenario is currently favored by the NHC. The UKMET model is further to the west....and the 00Z European model once again presents a direct impact on south/central Florida. The Canadian model takes the storm into the Florida Keys. The spread in the guidance late in the period is a result of how these individual models handle features well upstream (west) of the hurricane as they rotate around the globe and potentially impact the hurricane.

This turn is expected to take place very close to the Florida east coast and residents there should not let their guard down. The average foreacst error at 5 days is 325 nautical miles.

EXTENDED MOTION

Much depends on the exact track Frances takes...but at this time residents along the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Cape Hattaras should closely monitor the progress of this system.

MISC QUESTIONS
Q: What can we expect in the Bahamas?
A: Unfortunately...the forecast path of Frances takes the core of the hurricane through most of the Bahama islands. If the NHC track verifies...category 3 or stronger effects can be expected through much of the Bahama chain...much like the Bahamas were affected during Hurricane Floyd. Based on the current track and intensify guidance available from TPC/NHC...hurricane watches will be required for the southern and central Bahamas tomorrow and possible warnings as early as Wednesday.

Q: What should residents of Florida and the Bahamas be doing right now?
A: Residents should take time over the next day to review their hurricane plans and bring them up to date. If residents do not have a plan...now would be a good time to make one. More preliminary steps can be found in this post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=39085

Q: I live in (ANY CITY) and our meteorologist thinks the system is coming here...what should I do?
A: This far out...landfall points are guesswork. We have plenty of time to watch this system...you should go ahead and do everything you should have done at the beginning of the year...including getting your hurricane plan and supplies together. From there...no additional action is needed before a Hurricane Watch is issued for your area...unless there are things you should have already done still left to do.

Q:When will this impact the US if it does at all?: A:It still appears this could be another 5 days from the US coast...however...we could see the system impact the US East Coast sooner if the forward motion is faster than officially forecast.

We will update or replace this update around 4PM today.

MW

[btsgmdad]

Thanks for the great info!

[Stormcenter]

Just examined the speed issue. Here's the data.

At 0645z. She is located at 19.14N / 56.94W

At 1245z. She is located at 19.22N / 58.08W

So...over the last 6 hours she has moved on a heading of 274 and has covered a distance of 66NM...or 76 statute miles.

So...over 6 hours...her speed is 11 knots...or 13 mph.

The NHC did say they expected her to pick up some speed today and if you take the new speed and extrapolate it out...it ends up just a little further west than forecasted.

Thanks Air Force Met! In my opinion the jury is still out as
to when and where Frances will make her first and only (hopefully) landfall.

[Rainband]

I hate uncertainty *sigh*

[HeatherAKC]

Some So. Florida mets mentioned that the slow speed was good for us as Frances would then be influenced by the weakness and trough. The faster speed is not good news, but it could just as easily be only temporary. Besides, does 2-4 mph faster really matter THAT much in the forecast?

[mb229]

NC.. again thanks for your forecast. Oh man.... NC, not NC, NC. Looks like I need to get my 84 year old Mom prepped. She is a 25 year IOB resident.

[btsgmdad]

When you factor it out over the course of 24-48 hours, 50-75 miles change in track makes all the difference.