ATL: IKE Discussion

[caneseddy]

While the black line has shifted to the Middle Keys, as they always tell you, don't look at the skinny black line (which unfortunately, a lot of people do), look at the entire cone. As easily as the track shifted south this morning, it could just as easily shift north back towards the mainland.

So everyone is in South Florida should be prepared and be on alert. I fear that people will see the black line and think it is not coming to the mainland.

Once the plane flies in, and samples the atmosphere and gets synoptic data, then we will have a better idea of what the storm will do. The upcoming tracks starting at 11:00 pm will be the key

I am still preparing for the possibility of a Cat 3-Cat 4 in my area early next week

[cycloneye]

The Air Force plane has departed from St Croix so it wont be much time before it gets into the eye.

[jinftl]

You are welcome....i am an accountant in my non-s2k life so putting spreadsheets with numbers is just dorky enough to interest me!

I will continue to update so we can see the trend by region and city....this is a useful tool. Right now, Miami/Marathon/Key West all pretty much have the same likelihood of experiencing wind thresholds given.

My post from before....
Trend of cumulative probability of the areas experiencing 34kt, 50kt, 64kt in the forecast period (120 hours). The first % is what was forecast with 11pm Thursday advisory, the second was the forecast with the 5am friday advisory, the third is the current friday 11 am forecast probability.



Fort Pierce
34kt 30%-34%-33%
50kt 13%-15%-13%
64kt 5%-8%-7%


West Palm Beach
34kt 35%-40%-40%
50kt 14%-18%-18%
64kt 7%-9%-9%


Miami
34kt 35%-42%-45%
50kt 16%-21%-22%
64kt 8%-11%-12%


Marathon
34kt 28%-37%-44%
50kt 13%-19%-22%
64kt 9%-11%-13%


Key West
34kt 24%-33%-39%
50kt 12%-16%-22%
64kt 7%-10%-12%

Great post jinftl, on the wind probabilities. Thanks for putting that together for everyone.

[jlauderdal]

After cleaning my glasses, I see that Ike just hit the forecast point near 23N and 63W. It also appears he may pass slightly north of the next point.

nhc right on track as usual

[jrod]

There is no science behind this theory. But traditionally here in SFL if a Hurricane from the E or ESE landfalls south of Miami they usually go farther W than the Panhandle. When a Hurricane landfalls N of Miami it's usually in a recurve mode and recurves NW then N into the Peninsula. If the NHC track begins to flatten out a more W track into the GOM may happen. If the next track bends up into the Peninsula it would not take much of an angle to bring the eye back to the EC of Florida. Pins and needles!!

Well this storm maybe one to go against climatolgy. IIRC where Ike was when it started getting it's act together we have no record of a storm hitting Florida and possibly the east coast from that area. Ike is a storm that climatology has been useless for forecasting.

[KWT]

MiamiensisWx, I totally agree with you everyone needs to pay attention to the cone, we are still at least 96hrs away from any real threat to Florida and things can change and very often do change, sometimes for the better sometimes ofr the worse.

At this stage nearly all the islands east of Florida, the keys, Florida and also Cuba are in that cone and it could just about go anywhere.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has shifted north so far out to 36 hours.....showing Ike moving due west and no WSW movement.

still awaiting the rest of the run.

[KWT]

After cleaning my glasses, I see that Ike just hit the forecast point near 23N and 63W. It also appears he may pass slightly north of the next point.

nhc right on track as usual

The NHC were actually to the north of where Ike passed if you look back at previous forecasts, not by a big deal mind you and thats no reason to not think they've got the track sorted, at least in terms of the general evolution however details, who knows its just too early to know.

[Sabanic]

I know I don't like what I'm seeing either. Things could change but I'd say the Panhandle might take this one head on.

It looks like Ike is going to be trouble for many

[jinftl]

Forecast as of 11 am is for 115 knots either off of south florida or the straits...that is a Cat 4.
72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 77.0W 115 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 80.0W 115 KT

I find it intersting that accuweather shows Ike being a threat to the southeast and is not centered on Florida. Only time will tell, by Sunday hopefully we will have a good idea of where this will make landfall and the only suprises will be a much weaker system.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&ocean=atlantic&storm=Ike&imagetype=move&stormNum=8

I honestly can't undestand why they would only call this a cat2 on that path

[KWT]

Yep shouldn't take at all cycloneye.

[bikerbabe]

People already flocking to Home Depot and other stores. Everyone is beginning to jump on hurricane mode.

I've been in hurricane mode for 2 days now. Got the jitters on this one.

While I understand that there are bobbles in the 5-day, and the adjustments to intensity as more current data becones available, what I don't understand is why we are only getting 6-hour updates. Florida has been in the cone for 2+ days now. Wazzup?

[Weatherfreak000]

If you wanna follow something, follow the GFDL and EURO...they have definitely been the trend-setters for Ike.

[KWT]

I think a cat-4 that is just to the south of Florida is a very worrying set-up, its close enough to Florida and esp the keys to need to be ready to get out of there.

Recon flying, I suspect they may just about find a cat-3, maybe...

[ROCK]

If you wanna follow something, follow the GFDL and EURO...they have definitely been the trend-setters for Ike.

that is correct....we argee on something...

[CourierPR]

After cleaning my glasses, I see that Ike just hit the forecast point near 23N and 63W. It also appears he may pass slightly north of the next point.

Thats not a forecast point but the current location of Ike.

Current track very scary for the T&C, Inagua islands and also many of the Bahamas islands.

KWT, I WAS looking at the current forecast points. Also, Ike appears to be headed slightly north of the next point. So, if he tracks closer to the old forecast track, will the NHC nudge the track a little to the right at 5:00 pm?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS mean movement just north of West between 6 and 54 hours heading towards Central Bahamas now....

shift north.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like Ike turned back more westerly ,could be a wobble though.

[Storm Contractor]

Mets have enough problems being right 50% of the time with a handicap.

AFM- We had a saying when I was in the minors and you had a hot month at the plate, you would be "hitting it better than the weatherman!" Just thought that might apply here! Thanks for all the intel!

[Vortex]

I'm not liking the 12Z GFS one bit for those in the keys/sfl.