Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ivanhater]

From the plymouth site, looks like the Euro finally buckled, doesn't show a historic storm. Not a good sign tonight.

Certainly not the bomb it was showing earlier

However, I'm hearing it does show some accumulating snow for Southern Alabama/ Southern Georgia and possibly the Florida panhandle. I don't have the pay site though.

[Ntxw]

From the plymouth site, looks like the Euro finally buckled, doesn't show a historic storm. Not a good sign tonight.

Certainly not the bomb it was showing earlier

However, I'm hearing it does show some accumulating snow for Southern Alabama/ Southern Georgia and possibly the Florida panhandle. I don't have the pay site though.

It does maybe for a brief time just north of the coast where precip meets cold air, but the thing here is that without that bomb, the trend will be less cold. We'll have to see how quickly the cold air moves in.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z ECMWF..

72 hrs


96 hrs


29mb drop (1009mb --> 980mb) in 24 hours, so still technically a "bomb" on this run.

[Ivanhater]

I will say this. The Euro was always showing a close call with the timing of the phase. This is probably a case where we will have to see how the low take shapes in the Gulf in real time...A matter of a few hours could mean all or nothing.

[Ntxw]

I will say this. The Euro was always showing a close call with the timing of the phase. This is probably a case where we will have to see how the low take shapes in the Gulf in real time...A matter of a few hours could mean all or nothing.

It's VERY difficult to get perfect conditions to work out exactly. That's why I was so astonished at how the EC was so consistent. Usually a model will vary at least a little left or right which the euro did not for many consecutive runs. The northern stream/digging trough is important because if it comes in too fast (as depicted by the GGEM/GFS/NAM) it won't matter how much moisture a gulf low brings back, there won't be cold air arriving in time. I still do think despite the yuckiness tonight, a few in the southeast will still get to enjoy somewhat of a white Christmas!

[Ivanhater]

I will say this. The Euro was always showing a close call with the timing of the phase. This is probably a case where we will have to see how the low take shapes in the Gulf in real time...A matter of a few hours could mean all or nothing.

It's VERY difficult to get perfect conditions to work out exactly. That's why I was so astonished at how the EC was so consistent. Usually a model will vary at least a little left or right which the euro did not for many consecutive runs. The northern stream/digging trough is important because if it comes in too fast (as depicted by the GGEM/GFS/NAM) it won't matter how much moisture a gulf low brings back, there won't be cold air arriving in time. I still do think despite the yuckiness tonight, a few in the southeast will still get to enjoy somewhat of a white Christmas!

Wise words...Hopefully tomorrow is a good day

[Ivanhater]

I'm still hearing South east Alabama and parts of the Florida panhandle did pretty well on this run..So all in all still a nice run for this area. Not so much for other areas that were showing historic levels like North Georgia and parts of the Carolinas.

[MississippiWx]

I don't think this morning's model runs are as bad as we were thinking. The Euro doesn't show quite as strong of a system, but it's still strong. It shows a rapidly strengthening 1009mb low in the North-Central GOM on Saturday. This would still be a great setup for a southern snow. Still crossing my fingers that I could see a few flakes here in South Mississippi. Mobile NWS Office still likes the possibility, as well as Birmingham. All of them are siding with the Euro and they mentioned that the 6z GFS was coming back towards the Euro solution, which it did. Will be interesting if the GFS goes stronger for 12z run. GFS ensembles still show a heck of a snowstorm across the South. Still a lot left to be resolved on this storm and I don't think we should give up, yet!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I wouldnt give up hope yet on this storm. Typically, the models will shift a bit a few days out. (At least ive noticed this on some sno storms, like Dallas last Feb.)

So hang tight, next couple runs will be important though.

[GTStorm]

I wouldnt give up hope yet on this storm. Typically, the models will shift a bit a few days out. (At least ive noticed this on some sno storms, like Dallas last Feb.)

So hang tight, next couple runs will be important though.

Accuweather certainly has backed off the hype, although I only look at the free content (not the pro stuff). Weather Channel somewhat non committal at this point, but indications are for less of an impact than indicated yesterday.

Isn't that almost always the case?

[Portastorm]

As indicated by the NCEP folks in their morning forecast discussion out of Washington, DC, by tonight's 0z runs we should have a much better idea on how this one shakes out. The main storm system is coming onshore out west where we have much more observational data tools. The 12z runs in a few hours should shed some light but then by tonight ... it will probably be much clearer.

[Ntxw]

12z NAM is too far south and not very optimistic. There would be light snow showers possible per this run in the Tennessee valley to the northern sections of the SE from the ULL. Gulf low is too far south then goes out to sea similar to last night's GGEM in a way.

[georgia_tech_swagger]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1038 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1030 AM THURSDAY...A FEW ADDITIONAL MODEL DETAILS ARE STARTING
TO EMERGE WITH REGARD TO THE SAT/SAT NIGHT SOLUTIONS. THE AVAILABLE
00Z/06Z MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NEWLY ARRIVED 12Z NAM...ARE STARTING
TO CONVERGE SLIGHTLY ON A FAIRLY QUICK HIT OF THE INITIAL WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM ON SAT AS THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
BEGINS TO TRANSIT THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING FROM W TO E DURING THE DAYTIME IN MOST
AREAS...WITH WEAK FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCE AT THIS POINT IS THAT THE 00Z
ECMWF DEVELOPS A NRN TIER CLOSED LOW OVER INDIANA MIDDAY SAT...WHILE
THE NAM/GFS/GEM/GEFS AND SREF ARE ALL FARTHER NE WITH THE NRN TIER
H5 LOW CENTER...AND NOT AS DEEP. THIS ALLOWS THE ECM SFC LOW TO
DEEPEN MORE STRONGLY THAN IN THE OTHER MODELS AS IT HUGS THE SE
COAST SAT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE ECM HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM
RUN TO RUN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...TIME LAG TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHTLY
FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE GULF SFC LOW ON SAT...AND A CORRESPONDING
SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIER STRIPES OF QPF. THE 06Z GFS
ALSO HUGS THE COAST...BUT IS LESS DEEP THAN THE ECM...WHILE THE
NAM/GEM/SREF HAVE A MORE OFFSHORE SOLUTION WITH LESS INLAND QPF.

WILL AWAIT THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY
DECISION ON WINTER STORM WATCHES...HOWEVER...THE FOLLOWING TRENDS
ARE EMERGING. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST ON SATURDAY WITH THE INITIAL ROUND OF MOISTENING AND WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW COULD THEN SHIFT
TO THE PIEDMONT AS DEFORMATION ZONE FORCING INCREASES NW OF THE
PASSING COASTAL LOW SAT NIGHT. THIS COULD INCLUDE THE CHARLOTTE
AREA. THE DURATION THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW WOULD THEN SHIFT TO NW FLOW
ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE TN BORDER IN THE WRN MOUNTAINS SUN/SUN NIGHT.
MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE FULL AFTERNOON SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

[Ivanhater]

NWS Mobile/Pensacola increased chances of snow for the Florida Panhandle north of interstate 10. Even mentions black ice.

Saturday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

DURING THE AFTN...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS THE LOW OFF
THE COAST MOVES EASTWARD AND PULLS COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS IS WHEN
THINGS LOOK TO BECOME MORE INTERESTING OVER THE INTERIOR. ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM GREENVILLE AL TO WAYNESBORO MS...FORECAST DEEP LAYER
THERMAL PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN GOOD MOISTURE DEPTH WHILE COOLING TO
BLO FREEZING JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY EVENING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THERE...LATER IN THE DAY. COULD
VERY WELL BEGIN TO SEE SOME DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES AND EXPOSED
OBJECTS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING A RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THE DEEP
SOUTH. ELSEWHERE...A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY OUT BY
EVENING...RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS AS THE DEEP
LAYER COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD. THIS RESULTS IN A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR OF SW AL AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ZONES OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAINLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
MOISTURE SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SNOW POTENTIAL ENDS. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING SUN AM...THERE IS CONCERN THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE ON ROADS WILL FREEZE RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF
BLACK ICE AND AN INCREASED DRIVING HAZARD FOR MANY AREAS. STAY TUNED.

[Horstman]

Guys I know the 12z Euro comes online around 1230-1PM, correct?

Easy to see the >link< on the PSU site (thank you) but >hard to tell< which run model we're looking at. For instance, if you click 12z *now*; are we close enough in to be seeing first runs of TODAYS 12z, or are we still looking at YESTERDAY's 12z?

Anyone know where the time stamp is on the runs?

[sherry]

When will the next round of data come in? I'm so confused with this storm. Trying to figure out if we are going to be hit worse than expecting. We get info out of Charlotte and truth be told if it doesn't effect Charlotte they really aren't that worried about it. So part of the piedmont is sometimes left in the dark.

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI: There may be a winter RECON mission scheduled for the Gulf (should the short wave drop S) or Atlantic. I'm sure Luis will be monitoring for that information should it be tasked.

[Brent]

I don't know what to think anymore but I'm backing way off. I think most places around here will be lucky to get more than an inch or so.

[Ntxw]

These are the snow maps for various locations from the 12z GFS. NAM is similar. Lets see what the ECM says in about an hour.







I didn't post any other spots further south or west because it doesn't show anything happening there.

[Ivanhater]

I'd be very surprised if those maps verified. IMO Central and South Alabama and Georgia have a better chance of snow than extreme north because of the precip being confined further south. Also one would expect the snow shield to be SW to NE oriented with this set up.

00z Euro still looked good for this area for some kind of snow...hopefully the 12z follows as well.