ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the visible loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

Shear seems to be either backing off or changing directions. Convection getting closer to LLC.

hhehe.. was just going to say that.. but actually the center is being pulled back towards the convection..

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 011906
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 18 20090901
185700 1710N 05703W 9644 00383 0075 +234 +199 116009 010 999 999 03
185730 1711N 05702W 9644 00384 0075 +235 +199 120010 011 999 999 03
185800 1712N 05700W 9645 00382 0075 +235 +199 123012 013 999 999 03
185830 1713N 05659W 9641 00387 0076 +233 +199 126011 011 999 999 03
185900 1715N 05658W 9641 00387 0077 +233 +198 134011 012 999 999 03
185930 1716N 05657W 9645 00385 0078 +235 +197 135012 012 999 999 03
190000 1717N 05655W 9647 00383 0078 +235 +197 134011 012 999 999 03
190030 1718N 05654W 9642 00388 0078 +235 +197 137011 012 999 999 03
190100 1719N 05653W 9645 00385 0079 +235 +197 135010 011 999 999 03
190130 1721N 05651W 9638 00392 0079 +232 +198 133011 011 999 999 03
190200 1722N 05650W 9651 00381 0081 +226 +198 106013 016 999 999 03
190230 1723N 05649W 9638 00393 0081 +225 +197 110015 016 999 999 03
190300 1724N 05648W 9646 00386 0083 +214 +194 116017 017 999 999 03
190330 1725N 05646W 9644 00388 0083 +218 +190 115017 019 999 999 03
190400 1727N 05645W 9643 00389 0084 +216 +186 110014 014 999 999 03
190430 1728N 05644W 9645 00389 0083 +225 +183 106017 019 999 999 03
190500 1729N 05643W 9647 00387 0084 +227 +181 103020 020 999 999 03
190530 1730N 05641W 9645 00390 0084 +225 +181 102019 019 999 999 03
190600 1731N 05640W 9643 00393 0085 +226 +182 102021 022 999 999 03
190630 1732N 05639W 9642 00393 0086 +225 +182 108023 024 999 999 03
$$
;

[wxman57]

I guess that the CIMMS shear map Chris Velden made isn't a secret (is it?), so it should be ok to post here. How can SHIPS see only 3 kts of shear? The $64,000 question is what will the shear look like in 24-48 hours?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through OB 17:


Through OB 18:

[otowntiger]

saw the shear at HRD. An area of 40KT ahead of this

not sure how GFS can be this clueless. Wonder if something is wrong with the data assimilation

So it'll get ripped up again. Awesome.

[Evil Jeremy]

I would not be surprised if the Yellow and Green models would be the outlines of the NHC cone lol.

[Ivanhater]

I guess that the CIMMS shear map Chris Velden made isn't a secret (is it?), so it should be ok to post here. How can SHIPS see only 3 kts of shear? The $64,000 question is what will the shear look like in 24-48 hours?

I would think the shear has a lot to do with track as well. If it keeps her in check in the short term, might miss the 1st weakness

[Aric Dunn]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

I would not be surprised if the Yellow and Green models would be the outlines of the NHC cone lol.

While these are pretty colors to look out the NHC dont take any of the models into consideration when making a cone...I mean if the NHC started using the clipper we would be set back 50 years..LOL

They usually go with a blend of the globals...(Euro,GFS,CAN,HWRF,GFDL)....And thier super secret FSU Super Ensemble..

[Gustywind]

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 011916
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 19 20090901
190700 1734N 05638W 9644 00393 0087 +227 +182 113025 026 999 999 03
190730 1735N 05637W 9647 00390 0089 +217 +183 104028 031 999 999 03
190800 1736N 05635W 9641 00394 0088 +214 +182 099030 031 035 000 03
190830 1737N 05634W 9643 00393 0087 +227 +180 100029 030 034 000 03
190900 1738N 05633W 9644 00394 0087 +229 +180 103030 030 034 000 03
190930 1739N 05632W 9645 00393 0087 +230 +181 106029 030 034 000 03
191000 1740N 05631W 9646 00391 0087 +230 +182 107030 031 033 001 03
191030 1741N 05629W 9645 00393 0088 +233 +185 107029 030 033 000 03
191100 1743N 05628W 9643 00395 0088 +232 +187 109032 035 033 000 03
191130 1744N 05627W 9646 00393 0089 +225 +189 109036 036 034 000 03
191200 1745N 05626W 9643 00396 0090 +223 +191 111038 039 037 000 00
191230 1746N 05625W 9645 00395 0091 +219 +191 108039 040 038 000 03
191300 1747N 05624W 9653 00387 0091 +219 +191 106041 041 039 000 03
191330 1748N 05622W 9641 00399 0092 +218 +190 106043 044 041 000 03
191400 1749N 05621W 9647 00392 0093 +217 +190 105045 046 040 000 03
191430 1750N 05620W 9646 00397 0093 +216 +189 108046 047 039 000 00
191500 1751N 05619W 9646 00396 0095 +215 +188 109045 046 040 000 03
191530 1752N 05618W 9647 00398 0097 +215 +187 108048 049 042 000 00
191600 1753N 05617W 9643 00401 0098 +214 +185 110049 050 042 000 03
191630 1755N 05616W 9642 00402 0099 +213 +184 111047 049 043 000 03
$$
;


50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

[sandyb]

the models are looking pretty good for this thing to be a north carolina hit

[HURAKAN]

They're flagged but the three unflagged are quite strong

[cycloneye]

Hello Erika!

50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: They're flagged but the three unflagged are quite strong

and thats not even in the deepest convection.. yet

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hello Erika!

50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

they were flagged

[sandyb]

sure wish someone would explain what they are seeing

[RL3AO]

Hello Erika!

50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

Well, there hasn't been a VDM to show its a well defined LLC yet.

[wxman57]

There's little question that the system is producing sustained winds at or above 39 mph. The big question is whether or not the LLC is well defined enough to call it a TS. Looks borderline. I'd rather them name it now than at 4am tomorrow, though.

[Sanibel]

No doubt that was there last night too.