Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

Well, I guess we get to hurry up and wait for hi res data to come in. Right now, it's not looking THAT scary. Cold, but not close to 83/89.

I'll begin to trust the models in about 5 more days (12Z next Wednesday).

[Portastorm]

Some interesting comments this afternoon from Texas-based NWSFOs. See below for snippets/excerpts:

Houston/Galveston
AS OF NOW...THERE
ISN`T ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP OVER
CHRISTMAS. OF COURSE...ANY 10-PLUS DAY FORECAST IS A CRAP SHOOT
BUT LATE PERIOD TRENDS ARE FOR A COLD...ALBEIT NOT FRIGID...CHRISTMAS
WEEK. IF THE PACIFIC RIDGE DOES AMPLIFY FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA...WITH THE EXISTENCE OF A DESCENDING POLAR VORT
INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS...THEN CREDENCE CAN BE GIVEN FOR A SIGNIFICANT
ARCTIC OUTBREAK CHRISTMAS WEEK. UNTIL THEN...STAY TUNED!

Fort Worth
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE GATHERING ACROSS CANADA
AS A POLAR VORTEX TRACKS FROM SIBERIA...ACROSS THE NORTH
POLE...AND INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN ANTI-CYCLOGENESIS AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN INTENSE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL THAT DROPS INTO THE PLAINS
BY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WOULD LIKELY TRACK THROUGH NORTH TEXAS ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NEXT
WEEKEND. WE HAVE SEEN THE MODELS WAFFLE A BIT ON JUST HOW COLD
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FOR NORTH TEXAS. WHILE
THIS WILL SURELY BE ANOTHER NOTEWORTHY COLD SNAP FOR MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...AS FAR AS NORTH TEXAS IS CONCERNED...THE MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING AN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT WOULD RESULT IN ANY TYPE
OF RECORD BREAKING COLD HERE. AT THIS POINT I DONT SEE ANY
COMPELLING REASON TO BELIEVE THIS WILL BE ANY COLDER THAN OUR LAST
ARCTIC SPELL. THIS IS BECAUSE ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
ON STRONG SURFACE LOW CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GREAT
LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH
MORE PROGRESSIVE. PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGHS DONT LET AS MUCH
COLD AIR DROP THIS FAR SOUTH AS SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY UPPER
TROUGHS DO. ESSENTIALLY IN THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...THE CORE OF
THE COLD AIR ENDS UP HEADING MORE EAST THAN SOUTH ONCE IT ARRIVES
INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

CONCERNING WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL...THERE IS STILL A TREMENDOUS
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES THAT
WOULD POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE REQUIRED FOR POST
FRONTAL WINTER PRECIP. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH OVER NORTH
TEXAS FOR WINTER PRECIP AND LIKELY SNOW BY SATURDAY. THE KEY AT
THIS POINT IS VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A RATHER INNOCUOUS POCKET
OF POTENTIAL VORTICITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...BUT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/INTENSIFY AS IT
ARRIVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE 12Z
GFS/CANADIAN PHASE THIS ENERGY INTO THE BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH...
AND SUGGEST ALL PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THE AIR GETS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW. THE ECMWF AND SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE
THAT THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DETACHED FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND FORM INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH TRACKS
OVER THE REGION SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN A CHANCE
OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW BASED ON ALL ENSEMBLE AND AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL RUNS WE
WOULD ESTIMATE THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN PART OF OUR CWA NEXT
SATURDAY AT 20 PERCENT. OF COURSE AT THIS TIME RANGE THERE IS
PLENTY OF TIME FOR MODELS TO TREND IN EITHER DIRECTION...SO WE
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

Midland/Odessa
Next Friday...December 20...looks like a potential day of transition
back to colder weather as both the ECMWF and the GFS are
indicating a cold front will move into the Permian Basin during
the early evening. A lot can change between now and then. We will
have to take a closer look at the timing of this front on future
forecast model runs. Plus we will begin to have a better idea of
how long that colder weather will persist.

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting how the Austin/San Antonio office did not even mention the Arctic outbreak this run, just the mention of a SW flow with the approach of an upper level trough by next Friday. Fort Worth has a great institutional knowledge base of experts in their office. I love reading their discussions! I feel like I learn something every time, like I'm in class.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
235 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE LONG AWAITED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. OTHERWISE A DRY WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF COLD
MORNINGS WILL STILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. MORNING LOWS WILL THEN WARM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS SFC WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTH.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What NWS Austin/ San Antonio is ignoring, NWS Corpus is not.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
408 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013


LONGER RANGE MODELS BRING A SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND. CURRENT TIMING HAS ITS IMPACT AFTER THE
END OF THE PERIOD HERE IN THE COASTAL BEND...BUT IT WILL ASSUREDLY
BE THE FOCUS OF MUCH ATTENTION IN THE WEEK TO COME.]

[Tammie]

Freaking HAIL storm right over my house in Denton! Ground is completely white. WHAT THE HECK?????

[Tireman4]

Freaking HAIL storm right over my house in Denton! Ground is completely white. WHAT THE HECK?????

You might want to move. LOL

[Portastorm]

Freaking HAIL storm right over my house in Denton! Ground is completely white. WHAT THE HECK?????

You might want to move. LOL

Denton seems to have angered supernatural forces. Could this be next for them?



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[Tammie]

We've been the bullseye this December for sure! I still have almost 2 inches of ice in my yard and driveway that needs to melt.

[JDawg512]

After seeing the CPC outlook a couple of pages back, it only increases my doubts on their forecasts at least for this winter. Yea I know we haven't reached the Winter Solstice yet but technically we are in meteorological winter so their winter outlook is already wrong for Texas. Now who knows what late Jan through Feb will bring though on average the last 2 weeks of Jan and first 2 weeks of Feb is the coldest time of winter for Austin. I just don't buy their recent forecast or their winter outlook for Texas.

[dhweather]

DFW CBS Met Jeff Jamison opines here:

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2013/12/13/warm ... -and-then/


Here’s the summary of next weekend’s temperature plunge, as it stands right now. I’m not expecting a repeat of last week’s ice storm. The models are hinting at some wintry precip Saturday and/or Sunday next weekend, but it doesn’t appear that the precip will be as heavy as last week. The cold air also doesn’t look to stick around quite as long, either. Of course, we’re still far away from the event, and things could change. But it’s not looking as bad at the time of this writing.

[TheProfessor]

Yeah that hailstorm just barely missed my area.

[gboudx]

Update from Steve McCauley on FB:

Just ran the SM on next Friday's arctic surge, and although rain chances are very good as it blasts through it is only holding on to a brief opportunity for ice and snow, and any wintry precip amounts "should" be light. There continues to be nothing in the data to suggest a major ice storm with this system.

I should point out, however, that the European model is hitting the ice and snow potential pretty hard for next weekend, but its forecast does not look right to me for it depends on too many features coming together at the same place and same time to come true, so I will ignore that model ... for now

And regarding the rumors that this will be a record-setting cold event with temperatures dropping to the single digits and highs in the teens ... this, too, appears to be overdone. Neither the SM nor any other model suggest such an occurrence ... at this time

Remember, the polar regions are much warmer now than they were 30 years ago, so even if we were to exhaust the arctic air into the United States, it is unlikely we would see temperatures as cold as they were when this type of atmospheric flow pattern happened in the 1980s!

[katheria]

i agree, not going to model watch until tuesday night...

just watch temps up north...

a interesting read about 1989 from Burlington Vt NWS

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/events/Dec1989/

[Texas Snowman]

Ahh yes, the "we can't have record cold" because everything is warmer now idea. Even in the Arctic.

With all due respect, come on Mr. McCauley. I've got a yard 75% covered with 1/2 inch of sleet nine days after the storm in North Texas.

And this is in a week when scientists announced the confirmation of the coldest temperature ever recorded on planet earth.

And on a day when it snowed in Cairo for the first time in 112 years.

[TheProfessor]

Ahh yes, the "we can't have record cold" because everything is warmer now idea. Even in the Arctic.

With all due respect, come on Mr. McCauley. I've got a yard 75% covered with 1/2 inch of sleet nine days after the storm in North Texas.

And this is in a week when scientists announced the confirmation of the coldest temperature ever recorded on planet earth.

And on a day when it snowed in Cairo for the first time in 112 years.

We still have some sleet left over here too.

[weatherguy425]

Ahh yes, the "we can't have record cold" because everything is warmer now idea. Even in the Arctic.

With all due respect, come on Mr. McCauley. I've got a yard 75% covered with 1/2 inch of sleet nine days after the storm in North Texas.

And this is in a week when scientists announced the confirmation of the coldest temperature ever recorded on planet earth.

And on a day when it snowed in Cairo for the first time in 112 years.

He's referring to current temperatures in the source region; no Global Warming implication - Just stating that in this particular case temperatures are not quite as cold as they were during both the 1983/89 outbreaks. Now, I haven't done much research into 2M temps prior to both outbreaks; simply interpreting his statement.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Been watching for awhile...fun to have hoopla over long range model predictions, but, they've come back to being realistic...we'll see, but, doesn't look anything out of the ordinary for a chilly Christmas. I don't see any ice invading yards in Galveston anytime soon. HEHE...

[Ntxw]

Just ran the SM on next Friday's arctic surge, and although rain chances are very good as it blasts through it is only holding on to a brief opportunity for ice and snow, and any wintry precip amounts "should" be light. There continues to be nothing in the data to suggest a major ice storm with this system.

I should point out, however, that the European model is hitting the ice and snow potential pretty hard for next weekend, but its forecast does not look right to me for it depends on too many features coming together at the same place and same time to come true, so I will ignore that model ... for now

And regarding the rumors that this will be a record-setting cold event with temperatures dropping to the single digits and highs in the teens ... this, too, appears to be overdone. Neither the SM nor any other model suggest such an occurrence ... at this time

Remember, the polar regions are much warmer now than they were 30 years ago, so even if we were to exhaust the arctic air into the United States, it is unlikely we would see temperatures as cold as they were when this type of atmospheric flow pattern happened in the 1980s!

I have to respectfully disagree to some of his ideas here. I do agree cold anomalies are not as expansive as they were 30 years ago in a colder period overall (natural or unnatural) but 2011 proved it can be done. Take example Oklahoma did not shatter their state record lows in 83 or 89 but they did in 2011 in a much weaker outbreak. All it takes is for you to be in direct line as well as good snow cover to dip. Sure, in the past it was easier to get colder in a lesser pattern but that does not mean a singular event cannot deliver.

As of Today DFW is a little more than 1F away from topping 1989 as 2nd coldest December (to date). Of course 89 is about to take a big dive with the big outbreak, depending on how cold we get for how long there is a chance we could slip into 2nd. IMO we need to do a little less modeling and a little more forecasting using other tools as well.

[Ntxw]

After going through the ensembles and teleconnections, I still believe a direct discharge of a severe Arctic outbreak(s) will be plunging down the lee-side of the Rockies with end destination of Texas. There is a good signal of a powerful storm (blizzard?) in association for the southern plains.

Cutoff lows will become the norm beyond the Christmas period. Something to keep behind our minds as heights begins to rise over the Great Lakes.

[Wntrwthrguy]

I am looking forward to Portastorm's Sunday news conference and the first half of the week as the models get a better handle on what's going to happen next weekend. I'm hoping Austin can get some snowfall soon because, as has been mentioned many times around here, Austin sure is due for some accumulating snow!