Texas Winter 2017-2018

[chrisdanger76]

Got about a 1/2 " here in Southern Denton Co.

Also, like many others here, Id prefer a proper winter weather event than just raw cold. Seriously, these models keep kicking the can down the road..

[wxman57]

Before getting too excited about an upcoming winter weather event, keep an eye on the source region for the projected cold temperatures. As of this morning, there is still no cold air in western Canada. You need very cold air there before we can get it down here. That cold air over southeastern Canada isn't coming to Texas. Keep an eye on the source region this week.

[wxman57]

Looking farther north (maybe the extreme cold is over the Pole or across the Pole in Siberia? No, it's not there either. Watch for the source region to get very cold before counting on extreme cold down here. One plus for getting cold air here is the relatively warm temps in Alaska. Usually, a warm Alaska translates into cold here.

[bubba hotep]

The GEFS still believes...

[ronyan]

Siberia looks mixed, there is a channel of warm and cool near the pole. But the source regions aren't especially cold at this time.

I found where the cold air is hiding: https://www.wunderground.com/weather/ru ... 7%2C143.21

[bubba hotep]

Officially, DFW picked up 0.73" of rain and the Euro is showing another inch falling with this next system. That should put DFW above normal for December rainfall, which I don't remember any of the long term (weekly, monthly) models showing above normal precipitation for December.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3K NAM is way juiced up showing 1.5 - 3"+ rain for the DFW area with totals increasing as you move from west to east. It actually has 4-5" falling out in areas from Ennis up to towards Wills Point.

[Yukon Cornelius]

So was all of this one of those, “if it seems too good to be true, it usually is” type of things?

[Portastorm]

Travis County yesterday received anywhere from 1-1.5” of rain. Model guidance within 24 hrs suggested we would see a half inch to maybe an inch. If the models cannot even get it right that close, what’s the point of living and dying with each of these model runs 7-8 days out?!

I’d recommend that everyone take a step back from their computers today and go do something fun. Recognize that we have a 10-14 day pattern ahead with some “opportunity” and leave it at that.

[chrisdanger76]

Ive always said this region has weird weather, especially in the wintertime. It'll be interesting to see how things play out..

[wxman57]

Travis County yesterday received anywhere from 1-1.5” of rain. Model guidance within 24 hrs suggested we would see a half inch to maybe an inch. If the models cannot even get it right that close, what’s the point of living and dying with each of these model runs 7-8 days out?!

I’d recommend that everyone take a step back from their computers today and go do something fun. Recognize that we have a 10-14 day pattern ahead with some “opportunity” and leave it at that.

Good advice, Portastorm. It's easy to get too excited about a model projection more than a week out. Just keep an eye on the source region this week. I'm not saying that no very cold air or winter weather is coming to Texas. Just don't believe it until the air to our north gets cold.

[bubba hotep]

Before getting too excited about an upcoming winter weather event, keep an eye on the source region for the projected cold temperatures. As of this morning, there is still no cold air in western Canada. You need very cold air there before we can get it down here. That cold air over southeastern Canada isn't coming to Texas. Keep an eye on the source region this week.

This is certainly something I have been watching. The Euro EPS is building bigger cold anomalies in WCAN by the end of December. That might open the door for a big cold dump in early January but that air could also just slide into the East, depending on the pattern.

[hamburgerman7070]

Bubba, got a question. So, is the euro in depicting a 1050+ high coming south overdone? Like Mike ventrice said yesterday, u don't get those type thicknesses in the northern plains often.

[gpsnowman]

Look on the bright side, we are getting unexpected higher rain chances, a colder Christmas holiday, and families hopefully won't have to scramble to alter travel plans next weekend. Winning. Our chances will come this season for winter fun. I am just so happy another 80 degree Christmas is not going to happen.

[stormlover2013]

Safe to prob say Friday and Saturday will just be rain

[CaptinCrunch]

These are the typical mid range model runs, look for the source region to start showing its cards Tuesday. I'm still on board with surface cold making its way into NTX early Saturday morning with precip chances increasing as we head into Christmas eve. Best get your firewood ready and stored in a dry area, because tossing frozen ice covered logs into the fireplace sucks.

[Brent]

Lol now the gfs is warm through Christmas Eve

Why even bother wasting time on this model

[hriverajr]

LOL.. 300 mile difference in placement of cold front between 12z and 6z christmas eve

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS has surface temps 15 - 20 degrees warmer on Christmas Eve with most of Texas in the 60s & 70s



This is Christmas morning, Merry Christmas everyone!

[CaptinCrunch]

Step away from the GFS till Wednesday to cut down on potential anger management issues.