ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rickybobby]

Wesh 2 met said we should know on Tuesday what kind of impact central Florida will get.

[eastcoastFL]

Channel 7 in Miami showing impressive restraint @11:30 newscast. Hype machine is getting waxed and buffed for tomorrow perhaps but low key tonight

Im sure tomorrow the South Florida Mets will be all over it. It will be a stressful work week. Is it me or do these things always tend to show up on the weekend?

[tiger_deF]

Irma just fired a very intense burst of convection directly over the eye of the hurricane. Is this a sign of weakening? Is dry air still trapped in the storm?

[floridasun78]

i have never seen water be gone this far ahead of a storm!

I was thinking the same thing. It was gone yesterday in my local store and then again today. Hopefully folks will get out there tomorrow and do their shopping. I can't imagine there will be much left later in the week.

i did some today here in miami

[floridasun78]

Channel 7 in Miami showing impressive restraint @11:30 newscast. Hype machine is getting waxed and buffed for tomorrow perhaps but low key tonight

Im sure tomorrow the South Florida Mets will be all over it. It will be a stressful work week. Is it me or do these things always tend to show up on the weekend?

a lot chief met are off for holiday so be working on tue

[ObsessedMiami]

i have never seen water be gone this far ahead of a storm!

I was thinking the same thing. It was gone yesterday in my local store and then again today. Hopefully folks will get out there tomorrow and do their shopping. I can't imagine there will be much left later in the week.

i did some today here in miami

People buying water here in Kendall. Got my preps done today, including hard to find stuff like tarp clips just in case

[eastcoastFL]

i have never seen water be gone this far ahead of a storm!

I was thinking the same thing. It was gone yesterday in my local store and then again today. Hopefully folks will get out there tomorrow and do their shopping. I can't imagine there will be much left later in the week.

i did some today here in miami

Glad to hear that. Since I have the day off tomorrow I might just head to my grandmother's house in Boynton and put her shutters up Incase. I can always take them down next weekend if nothing happens.

[eastcoastFL]

My local forecast has the wind picking up on Friday but I'm not sure if it's from the cold front or Irma.

Friday Night
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. North northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

[Blinhart]

Irma just fired a very intense burst of convection directly over the eye of the hurricane. Is this a sign of weakening? Is dry air still trapped in the storm?

Usually it is a sign of strengthening. Really no dry air to talk about anymore. Should be all out strengthening from here on out until land interruption.

[ObsessedMiami]

Discussion is dead due to everyone over in the model thread watching GFS

[bob rulz]

Irma just fired a very intense burst of convection directly over the eye of the hurricane. Is this a sign of weakening? Is dry air still trapped in the storm?

Don't quote me on this since I haven't been tracking hurricanes as intensely as I used to, but it likely just means that the air is very unstable and the water is warm. It could potentially signal quite the opposite - incoming rapid intensification. Storms don't blow up like that unless there's a lot of fuel.

We've been saying this could rapidly intensify for quite a while now, but I think it's finally hitting favorable enough conditions for it to do so.

It's also looking a lot larger than it was even earlier today if my eyes don't deceive me.

[hurricanehunter69]

Checking out the latest steering levels at 700-800 MB, I see no reason why Irma will not continue to dive WSW. Moreover, I would be increasingly confident in forecasting Irma to bottom out even further south than the lowest forecasted point of 16.4. I would be very tempted to forecast a more westward movement( as opposed to WNW ) thereafter as well. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[Aric Dunn]

oh boy.. here we go.. its about to deepen.. next hour or 2.. and its still dropping more wsw looking to miss even the new forecast point.. as long as it does not get close to 16n PR should be ok...

[brghteys1216]

Sure we've all seen the latest GFS by now and I know anything can change but I want to have a plan just in case.

I live in Orlando, not in a low lying area. If you were me, would you evacuate or stick around? (I know most of you will say follow law enforcement orders) but do they typically evacuate Orlando? I'm new to hurricanes so this would be my first.

[Aric Dunn]

Sure we've all seen the latest GFS by now and I know anything can change but I want to have a plan just in case.

I live in Orlando, not in a low lying area. If you were me, would you evacuate or stick around? (I know most of you will say follow law enforcement orders) but do they typically evacuate Orlando? I'm new to hurricanes so this would be my first.

your in a zone where evacuees go.. only reason for you to leave is if you dont want to be without power and the amenities... floding is your other concern.. so it would be up to you what you want to deal with.

with such a large hurricane .. wind damage mostly trees falling on everything will be dangerous as well.

[galaxy401]

Is there a chance that at the rate the southern shifts keep happening, Irma might just slam into Hispaniola get shredded apart there?

[AdamFirst]

Sure we've all seen the latest GFS by now and I know anything can change but I want to have a plan just in case.

I live in Orlando, not in a low lying area. If you were me, would you evacuate or stick around? (I know most of you will say follow law enforcement orders) but do they typically evacuate Orlando? I'm new to hurricanes so this would be my first.

The GFS would be the absolute worst case scenario imaginable.

Almost 6 million in the Miami metro (Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm) as of 2014. I know some folks would stay behind, but could you imagine an exodus of that many people north? There's only four highways out of South Florida - I-95, the Turnpike, US 27 and I-75.

I don't even want to think about that. And thats not to mention the extra 6+ million people that are between Tampa and Orlando.

[Aric Dunn]

Is there a chance that at the rate the southern shifts keep happening, Irma might just slam into Hispaniola get shredded apart there?

yes I have mentioned this multiple times in the discussion thread.. if it reaches 16n the chances of PR and DR increase a lot

[CrazyC83]

As for the pressure of the other models, ECMWF keeps it around 920 and the CMC around 950. Those are definitely more realistic (920 seems very reasonable) and the size, although large, is not continent-sized. How can a storm become 1,000 miles wide without any baroclinic forcing?

[Hurricaneman]

Is there a chance that at the rate the southern shifts keep happening, Irma might just slam into Hispaniola get shredded apart there?

I pray for that too as if the GFS track and intensity(take away about 30mb that's still 905 to 910mb which would devastate the entire Florida peninsula and would be bad news for the theme parks as they would suffer severe upper cat 3 conditions but those in south Florida would get cat 5 conditions easy and the coastal flooding would be unimaginable