ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

NOAA3 measured 104 kt FL winds -> 95 kt at the surface.
NOAA3s first pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 961.6 mb with 6 kt winds nearby -> 961 mb.
AF309s latest pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 963.4 mb with 8 kt winds -> 963 mb.

Based on this data I'd put the current intensity at 962mb/95kt.

[eastcoastFL]

We’ve got a steady breeze with the occasional gusts going in Stuart now and Helene is still over 400 miles to our SW. It will be an interesting day all across the sunshine state. The west coast and big bend area should be done with their preps now. The rain and wind will be upon them soon if it isn’t already.

[eastcoastFL]

NOAA3 measured 104 kt FL winds -> 95 kt at the surface.
NOAA3s first pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 961.6 mb with 6 kt winds nearby -> 961 mb.
AF309s latest pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 963.4 mb with 8 kt winds -> 963 mb.

Based on this data I'd put the current intensity at 962mb/95kt.

Did they do an eye drop this pass? I’m not seeing the VDM.

[K4Gators]

I need advise. My grown kids live in Tallahassee. They follow Mike's Weather page ( I don't, been a member here for 20 years.) They are freaking out because he's saying a catastrophic CAT 5. I told them don't listen to him just follow NHC or come here. What are your thoughts on this Mike's weather?

Go follow meteorologist Denis Phillips on Facebook. His son is a student at FSU. Even though he’s in Tampa, he’s been commenting regularly on Tallahassee and the panhandle.

When my son was in school in Tally he went through a hurricane every fall. I’d have your kids leave if they can. Based on his experience, gas and power will be scarce if this goes through as a hurricane. It’s a very tree-y place!

[kevin]

NOAA3 measured 104 kt FL winds -> 95 kt at the surface.
NOAA3s first pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 961.6 mb with 6 kt winds nearby -> 961 mb.
AF309s latest pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 963.4 mb with 8 kt winds -> 963 mb.

Based on this data I'd put the current intensity at 962mb/95kt.

Did they do an eye drop this pass? I’m not seeing the VDM.

I'm also not seeing eye drop data yet for these two recent passes, but sometimes it takes a bit longer to arrive.

[Sciencerocks]

[robbielyn]

I don’t know who Mike is but I’d follow the NHC, always. Anyone in Tally needs to be prepared for a catastrophic hurricane at this point.

Mike lives in clearwater has his own YT channel. Has a great following. He won an award for helping the community with weather info. he is not a met but knows all the top mets and tv mets they all respect him. he is on the road now chasing Helene. he is not a young man but maybe late 30s he has a family. he’s good friends with denis philips and mike clay. he has been doing this over 20 years so he is well respected. He doesn’t overhype cat 5nwas in the cards and he will adjust accordingly. he wants people to respect this storm and get out of harms way. but yes he is humble says listen to nhc he is just an enthusiast

Thanks for the info. I don’t get on YouTube or social media much, the only storm videos I ever really watch are Levi’s on tropical tidbits. But I will definetly check it out sometime. Everyone should respect the power of this storm. It’s going to be felt far and wide for hundreds and hundreds of miles. Looking at recon right now they are reporting 100kt+ FL winds now to the east. So it’s ramping up.

You can’t go wrong with Levi. He is the best around.

[Frank P]

She's been a hard-working gal this morning with an impressive structure and checking the RECON reports to see just how low and fast that pressure will fall. Once that northern eyewall wraps around the west side it could be lift off.

[xironman]

NOAA3 measured 104 kt FL winds -> 95 kt at the surface.
NOAA3s first pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 961.6 mb with 6 kt winds nearby -> 961 mb.
AF309s latest pass found a lowest extrapolated pressure of 963.4 mb with 8 kt winds -> 963 mb.

Based on this data I'd put the current intensity at 962mb/95kt.

Did they do an eye drop this pass? I’m not seeing the VDM.

You won't see a VDM until they have measured the strongest winds outgoing

[Beer Belly]

Are there any E to W graphs of windspeed that cross thru the eye? & N to S

X axis would be Distance from eye. Left side would be neg mileage numbers, zero would be center of circulation. Y-axis would be wind sustained wind speed.

It would look like a volcano.

[Nimbus]

Wow, she's so much weaker on the west side.

https://i.imgur.com/TpK3EZ7.png

Do you have a link for that recon history with the forecast track graphic?

I'm using Google Earth KML found on this page: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/google_earth/

So you are start with the manual decoder option for a map and all these options like forecast track are default?

[GCANE]

Man, that setup when she just crosses the FL/GA border is insane.
The cutoff low to her west and UL anticyclone to her east.
This will create a massive UL Jet.
Could spawn some very significant tornadoes then.
SE GA and SC could see a major, destructive tornado outbreak.

Yeah I'm here near Beaufort that's my concern

Stay safe my friend

[SoupBone]

If she's tracking east right now, I'm curious if this also pushes her further east after she moves inland over Georgia, or does she still loop back over Tennessee and park on top of it.

[chris_fit]

Do you have a link for that recon history with the forecast track graphic?

I'm using Google Earth KML found on this page: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/google_earth/

So you are start with the manual decoder option for a map and all these options like forecast track are default?

https://i.imgur.com/XZ6poD6.jpeg

Download and install Google Earth Pro (Free) - https://www.google.com/earth/about/vers ... wnload-pro
Download the KML/KMZ File: https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/goog ... _Basin.kmz
Open it with Google Earth.
Expand the selections on the left

[GCANE]

Looks like the outer eyewall is going to town on IR.
The cirrus outflow from the rotating hot tower is eclipsing the eye.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I believe that Helene is a Category 2 hurricane now.

[blueskies]

I am having a hard time understanding why the NHC is sticking to its track for this long when there are major models showing otherwise. Reminds me of Irma when then continued to insist it would stay in the gulf while Euro showed up the spine of Fl. We will see but they did the same with Debbie. They insisted it was moving North while it moved 50-60 miles East It is lazy to say it's in the cone. Lets see if they are correct this time.

Doubt thàt it is due to laziness. I imagine NHC people have been working many long hours on this storm. From what I have read on Storm2k, the NHC makes adjustments gradually after consistent model runs. They want to avoid windshield effect in their message to public.

[xironman]

Man, that setup when she just crosses the FL/GA border is insane.
The cutoff low to her west and UL anticyclone to her east.
This will create a massive UL Jet.
Could spawn some very significant tornadoes then.
SE GA and SC could see a major, destructive tornado outbreak.

Yeah I'm here near Beaufort that's my concern

Stay safe my friend

TOR risk

[Chris_in_Tampa]

My recon system runs in the browser too. Each site below runs it independently, so if there are ever any issues with a site, try the other.

https://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.c ... ing=cesium
https://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/reco ... ing=cesium
https://aircraft.myfoxhurricane.com/rec ... ing=cesium

Google Earth is nice though too as I like to customize stuff more and add overlays easier:
https://tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/#google_earth

[GCANE]

Based on Miss Piggy's latest pass, Helene looks to be just a few miles east of forecast track.