ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

That continuous lightning is still going.
IMHO may see a pressure close to 900mb

[Zonacane]

That continuous lightning is still going.
IMHO may see a pressure close to 900mb

I’ll take the under

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

That continuous lightning is still going.
IMHO may see a pressure close to 900mb

I’ll take the under

There have only been five sub-900 storms in Atlantic history.

[InfernoFlameCat]

That continuous lightning is still going.
IMHO may see a pressure close to 900mb

I’ll take the under

There have only been five sub-900 storms in Atlantic history.

I am going to be bold and make a prediction… as of right now i think its 6.

[Sciencerocks]

894 mb's is my final guess.

[chaser1]

At least we can expect significant weakening before landfall.

Yep and thank God for that! Just looked at the shear map and holy crap that's some of the strongest shear I've ever seen that's forecasted, AND at the right time.

There is no guarantee. Don't look at a current shear map, because that won't be the shear when the storm arrives. Look at the SHIPS projection https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D

No no lol, I don't have nearly enough beer to sit and review all that data

[eastcoastFL]

At least we can expect significant weakening before landfall.

Yep and thank God for that! Just looked at the shear map and holy crap that's some of the strongest shear I've ever seen that's forecasted, AND at the right time.

There is no guarantee. Don't look at a current shear map, because that won't be the shear when the storm arrives. Look at the SHIPS projection https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/?C=M;O=D

So about 40kts is the current forecast near landfall?

[kronotsky]

900 might seem like a low number, but if Milton stayed on the trend observed by the last recon flight, it plummeted past that mark a few hours ago. Of course, that rate of intensification was unsustainable... so one would think.

[NDG]

ENE has begun and it looks like it now has an outer eyewall.

[GCANE]

Large anti-cyclone has formed ahead and slightly south of Milton.
This could be a worse case scenario if it shifts and Milton tracks into it.

[mpic]

Certainly no surge threat there. You could see sustained TS wind, maybe 40-50 mph and gusts to hurricane strength. No reason to evacuate unless you have someone in your family who would be seriously impacted if the power goes out.

We have supplies but would only head south if the track shifts significantly.

I'm concerned about flooding and the house we are renting has no shutters so if we are expecting hurricane force winds we're out of here. It's a concrete house but I can't chance something flying through the windows.

Take pictures of what you leave behind...tv, furniture, etc. And take important documents and keepsakes with you.

[jasons2k]

I didn’t think this storm had a shot at sub-900 but I think it’s gonna do it now. This is insane.

[Stormgodess]

A plea to all our Florida members:

Please leave

I'm on a fixed income and cant help financially, but have land in SE Louisiana, on the Northshore, where a few campers can be parked. I've got a fenced in area that had a tree fall in one section but with a chainsaw and man power, could patch easily. It's grown up, so wouldn't be great for cows or horses, but great for goats or large outside dogs. I've got an extra large dogloo, and several large dog houses.

I've got cages and crates, if you need a place for chickens, rabbits, birds, small animals.

If there is any way I can help I will do everything in my power to do so. Please reach out.

Praying for you all

[craptacular]

Yeah, the NOAA plane (Kermit) seems to be making a beeline to the center, so their first fix should come in earlier than planned. The next AF plane just took off from Biloxi, so we'll have two planes in there for part of the evening.

[InfernoFlameCat]

ENE has begun and it looks like it now has an outer eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/0p9MdoR.gif

I am not seeing it boss. Hopefully the storm can hold out for another hour till recon arrives.

[Hurricane2022]

My guess is 179 kt FL and 891.2 mb extrap

[underthwx]

The thing that gets every tropical cyclone drooling

Is the loop current the same as the gulf stream?...

It's an offshoot that projects into the Gulf of Mexico

Oh okay.....thankyou!.....

[ElectricStorm]

ENE has begun and it looks like it now has an outer eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/0p9MdoR.gif

Hmm outer eyewall doesn't seem very strong though. I guess we'll see soon with recon. Inner eyewall looks strong enough to hold for a little while longer perhaps

[HurricaneBrain]

The outer -80/pink ring has continuously filled, and it is just about closed off...

[Zonacane]

ENE has begun and it looks like it now has an outer eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/0p9MdoR.gif

That spiral band is still attached to the eyewall