Frances Advisories

mb229 · #2281 Postby **mb229** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:30 am

..make that OIB. Need coffee! :oops:

x-y-no · #2282 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:32 am

HeatherAKC wrote:Some So. Florida mets mentioned that the slow speed was good for us as Frances would then be influenced by the weakness and trough. The faster speed is not good news, but it could just as easily be only temporary. Besides, does 2-4 mph faster really matter THAT much in the forecast?

Slower is better for us, yes.

And while 2-4mph difference doesn't mean much over a few hours, it makes all the difference in the world over two or three days.

Stay tuned. I'm no more certain of where she'll make landfall now than I was two days ago.

Rainband · #2283 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:32 am

ncweatherwizard wrote:http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2004/frances.html

Good morning folks. Finally things start to pan out like they ought to...of course everybody needs to keep an eye on it here because nothing has actually happened yet, but this is very doubtfully a model flop; this will be a trend most likely--the incoming trough is rather obvious, and has been actually for a couple of days--it's really a matter of forward speed of the hurricane (FL would be under the gun if Frances moved faster than forecsat). If I were along the South Carolina coast, I would be preparing more right now than I would if I were in Florida (but this is because I hate spending money )

I would rewrite after you see the corrected advisory to The increase in foward Speed. :wink:

Like I have read it's way too early to know for sure. When this thing is far from me I wion't worry anymore. Charley taught me a valuable lesson. Things change and fast :eek:

tallbunch · #2284 Postby **tallbunch** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:33 am

GA islands would be a huge problem. Nothing has come there for a long time.

cape_escape · #2285 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:33 am

Thanks for the update...Although I don't like the sound of it .... :cry:

#2286 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:34 am

ncweatherwizard wrote:http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2004/frances.html

Good morning folks. Finally things start to pan out like they ought to...of course everybody needs to keep an eye on it here because nothing has actually happened yet, but this is very doubtfully a model flop; this will be a trend most likely--the incoming trough is rather obvious, and has been actually for a couple of days--it's really a matter of forward speed of the hurricane (FL would be under the gun if Frances moved faster than forecsat). If I were along the South Carolina coast, I would be preparing more right now than I would if I were in Florida (but this is because I hate spending money )

What state do you live in and where is the storm suppose make landfall based on your prediction?
I know it's just a coincidence.

#2287 Postby **hial2** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:34 am

Besides, does 2-4 mph faster really matter THAT much in the forecast?

Not if it stays at 2 or 4 miles faster...the problem is that it usually means it is gaining speed, and will probably go to more that the stated 2-4 miles..Showing a trend to speed, so to speak

Rainband · #2288 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:35 am

Keep in mind also that florida is 350 miles or so wide at our widest point :eek:

BonesXL · #2289 Postby **BonesXL** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:36 am

If she begins to show a speed trend then there is real nothing up front of the storm to slow her down.... not good

sunflowerkist · #2290 Postby **sunflowerkist** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:44 am

x-y-no wrote:It looked to me like the models anticipated some accelleration (compare their positions to the xtrap). But if you're right about how fast she's moving, then I think that's outstripping them, yes.

I've been trying to figure out why the models slowed her down so much in the recent runs. It seemed to me that accelleration would be natural once the westward turn was complete. I was pretty surprised she moved so slowly last night.

Guess I've still got a lot to learn.

I want to encourage you to know that there is no one who knows it all. That is why it continues to fascinate everyone. The experts who spend their lives studying weather get surprised all the time. It is the high ( on life) that does not go away.

#2291 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 8:48 am

Rainband wrote:Keep in mind also that florida is 350 miles or so wide at our widest point

You are talking from JAX to P'cola I presume?? It isn't near that wide anywhere else!!!

c5Camille · #2292 Postby **c5Camille** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:33 am

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 23

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 30, 2004

...Powerful Hurricane Frances continues westward...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands by their governments...Antigua...Barbuda...St maarten...
Anguilla...Nevis...St Kitts...St eustatius and Saba. The government
of France issued a tropical storm watch for St Martin and St
Barthelemy. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. A Hurricane Watch may be required for some of these islands
later today.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
Puerto Rico and the Hurricane Watch for Vieques is changed to a
tropical storm watch. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the
British and northern U.S. Virgin Islands including St Thomas...St
John and surrounding islands...and for the island of Culebra.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch means that tropical storm or
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.3 north...longitude 58.7 west or about 300
miles... 480 km...east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Frances is moving toward the west near 13 mph ...20 km/hr...and this
general motion...with a slight increase in forward speed...is
expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Frances this afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...19.3 N... 58.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
AST.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

c5Camille · #2293 Postby **c5Camille** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:33 am

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 23

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 30, 2004

...Powerful Hurricane Frances continues westward...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands by their governments...Antigua...Barbuda...St maarten...
Anguilla...Nevis...St Kitts...St eustatius and Saba. The government
of France issued a tropical storm watch for St Martin and St
Barthelemy. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. A Hurricane Watch may be required for some of these islands
later today.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
Puerto Rico and the Hurricane Watch for Vieques is changed to a
tropical storm watch. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the
British and northern U.S. Virgin Islands including St Thomas...St
John and surrounding islands...and for the island of Culebra.

A tropical storm or Hurricane Watch means that tropical storm or
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.3 north...longitude 58.7 west or about 300
miles... 480 km...east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

Frances is moving toward the west near 13 mph ...20 km/hr...and this
general motion...with a slight increase in forward speed...is
expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Frances this afternoon.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb...28.23 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...19.3 N... 58.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...120 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
AST.

Forecaster Pasch

$$

c5Camille · #2294 Postby **c5Camille** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:33 am

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 23

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 30, 2004

the last recon mission had 107 kt winds outbound in the northwest
quadrant eyewall. This does not quite support a maximum surface
wind of 105 kt....but on this morning's satellite imagery...the
hurricane is looking a little better organized...so the intensity
is kept at 105 kt. Upper-level outflow appears to be increasing...
and analyses from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS as well as the
SHIPS guidance indicate decreasing vertical shear. Therefore
strengthening is forecast as in the previous advisory. Frances has
the potential to intensify more than indicated here.

The forward speed has increased and initial motion is now about
275/11. Frances is on the south side of a subtropical ridge and
the track models suggest that the easterly steering current will
strengthen somewhat during the next 24 hours. Global models
indicate some weakening of this ridge after 72 hours. How much
this ridge will weaken is critical for the longer-range track of
this hurricane. The official forecast track is similar to the
previous one and very close to the model consensus and the latest
FSU superensemble forecast. One concern is that the GFDL model
forecast track has generally been shifting more westward with each
successive run.

It is extremely important not to focus on the exact track...
especially at 96 and 120 hours...because the hurricane is not a
point and forecasts at these extended time ranges can easily have
errors of several hundred miles.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/1500z 19.3n 58.7w 105 kt
12hr VT 31/0000z 19.4n 60.7w 105 kt
24hr VT 31/1200z 19.9n 63.5w 110 kt
36hr VT 01/0000z 20.6n 66.2w 115 kt
48hr VT 01/1200z 21.5n 68.8w 115 kt
72hr VT 02/1200z 23.5n 73.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 03/1200z 25.5n 76.0w 115 kt
120hr VT 04/1200z 27.5n 78.5w 115 kt

#2295 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:48 am

It's tragic that society has become so stupid, and
always looks for someone to blame. Now the NHC
has to remind folks of common sense -
"A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT" - DUH!!!!
This may result in a 50 mile wide swath of destruction.
Focus on what your local officials tell you!!!

TLHR · #2296 Postby **TLHR** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:48 am

Don't mean to be rude, but couldn't your two posts on Frances have been consolidated into one...

SouthernWx · #2297 Postby **SouthernWx** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:55 am

My reasoning has only changed slightly since yesterday.....but I adjusted my forecast track slightly to the east...but still west of the NHC forecast track and GFDL. I expect a very intense hurricane at landfall in the Bahamas and in Florida....at least strong category-4, and a landfalling cat-5 isn't out of the question.

http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

Amanzi · #2298 Postby **Amanzi** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 9:57 am

Fantastic work Mike!!!...

I will be looking forward to the 4pm update.

Josephine96 · #2299 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:01 am

DH.. Maybe the NHC thinks the world has a lot of stupid people in it lol

Cyclone Runner · #2300 Postby **Cyclone Runner** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:01 am

We now can see that Hurricane Frances is getting closer as sea swells start to build along the South coasts of the South side of the island. Swells, approximately two feet have started to come into Great Bay harbor. Boaters have taken heed and sought safe shelter in one of the island's protective lagoons.

The Emergency Operations Center (EOC) - Isladn Government Disaster Management Body - met at 8.00am to assess the situation and will be meeting again at 5.30pm.]

The Island is already under a Tropical Storm Warning and the community has been informed to prepare for tropical storm conditions.

Roddy

Roddy Heyliger
Communications Consultant

MEDPRO - Designed to broaden public knowledge by informing.
"The Value of Knowing First."
@ Government Communications
@ Corporate Communications

Email: heylrody@sintmaarten.net
Cell 599-5529397, 5564217

P.O.Box 414, Philipsburg
St. Maarten D.W.I.

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