ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Hello Erika!

50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

Well, there hasn't been a VDM to show its a well defined LLC yet.

If they hadn't found a LLC they would still be looking for one which they aren't. They are doing their normal flight patterns.

[sfwx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2009

.DISCUSSION...

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY THURSDAY
AND THEN BACK NORTH LATER FRIDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST...MERGING WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GULF WILL WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE BY THE WEEKEND AND RIDGING
WILL STRENGTHEN AT LEAST IN THE MID LEVELS BY SUNDAY. POPS WILL
DECREASE EACH DAY AND WILL BE MORE LIKE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

CONCERNING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOME 260 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS (INVEST AL94 AS DESIGNATED BY NHC)...THE GFS STILL
DOESN`T LIKE THIS FEATURE AND TRACKS IT AS AN OPEN WAVE REACHING
THE SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY. THE CURRENT NHC THINKING
IS THAT A STORM MAY FORM FROM THIS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM. STILL...
IT`S A LONG WAYS OUT SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS WEATHER
PATTERN EVOLVES.

LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

[RL3AO]

Hello Erika!

50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

Well, there hasn't been a VDM to show its a well defined LLC yet.

If they hadn't found a LLC they would still be looking for one which they aren't. They are doing their normal flight patterns.

They found the LLC. The question is if its well defined enough to be considered a tropical cyclone.

[wxman57]

New model data out. Still AL94, 45 kts though.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090901 1800 090902 0600 090902 1800 090903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 57.2W 17.4N 58.9W 18.3N 60.6W 18.9N 62.1W
BAMD 16.8N 57.2W 17.6N 58.5W 18.2N 59.7W 18.8N 60.8W
BAMM 16.8N 57.2W 17.4N 58.6W 18.0N 60.0W 18.4N 61.1W
LBAR 16.8N 57.2W 17.5N 58.7W 18.1N 60.2W 18.7N 62.0W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 64KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 64KTS 69KTS

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Weatherboy1]

if winds are that high with the plane still not in the area of deepest convection, anyone want to lay odds on their being even stronger winds a degree or two to the east?

[storms NC]

That would be about right. We just had a lot of rain. What would a little more be. Can you say flooding?

[Aric Dunn]

New model data out. Still AL94, 45 kts though.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090901 1800 090902 0600 090902 1800 090903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 57.2W 17.4N 58.9W 18.3N 60.6W 18.9N 62.1W
BAMD 16.8N 57.2W 17.6N 58.5W 18.2N 59.7W 18.8N 60.8W
BAMM 16.8N 57.2W 17.4N 58.6W 18.0N 60.0W 18.4N 61.1W
LBAR 16.8N 57.2W 17.5N 58.7W 18.1N 60.2W 18.7N 62.0W
SHIP 45KTS 55KTS 64KTS 69KTS
DSHP 45KTS 55KTS 64KTS 69KTS

I have seen them change it.. many times..

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 011926
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 20 20090901
191700 1756N 05614W 9643 00404 0101 +212 +183 108048 050 043 000 00
191730 1757N 05613W 9640 00408 0102 +212 +182 111048 050 043 001 03
191800 1758N 05612W 9643 00404 0103 +213 +182 109047 049 041 000 00
191830 1759N 05611W 9638 00411 0104 +210 +181 111047 049 040 000 00
191900 1800N 05610W 9655 00396 0105 +212 +181 112049 051 041 001 00
191930 1801N 05609W 9645 00405 0107 +209 +180 113047 049 039 001 00
192000 1802N 05607W 9648 00404 0108 +209 +178 112049 051 041 000 00
192030 1803N 05606W 9639 00414 0108 +209 +177 113049 051 040 000 00
192100 1804N 05605W 9642 00412 0110 +208 +175 107043 044 039 000 00
192130 1805N 05604W 9648 00407 0111 +204 +173 105047 048 042 000 03
192200 1806N 05603W 9648 00408 0113 +202 +171 114050 051 042 000 03
192230 1808N 05603W 9645 00413 0113 +204 +169 112051 052 999 999 03
192300 1809N 05604W 9648 00407 0112 +209 +167 106049 051 999 999 03
192330 1809N 05606W 9641 00415 0112 +207 +167 099046 048 045 000 03
192400 1809N 05608W 9647 00409 0109 +210 +167 095046 047 041 000 03
192430 1808N 05610W 9642 00410 0109 +210 +167 094046 048 038 003 03
192500 1807N 05612W 9646 00406 0108 +211 +168 103049 052 042 000 03
192530 1806N 05614W 9641 00410 0107 +210 +169 103049 051 044 000 03
192600 1805N 05616W 9647 00402 0105 +210 +170 101046 046 042 000 00
192630 1804N 05618W 9645 00404 0103 +212 +170 103050 052 043 000 03
$$
;

52kt FL

[Aric Dunn]

if winds are that high with the plane still not in the area of deepest convection, anyone want to lay odds on their being even stronger winds a degree or two to the east?

well yeah ...

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF recurves it east of CONUS. That track looks just about what I would forecast for this thing.

[tolakram]

It's only a matter of time before a "non tropical" tropical storm does significant enough damage that someone has to go back and review the rules. While I understand the need to be scientifically pure, there are humans involved down there on those Islands, and many won't react until it gets the designation.

This disturbance is tropical in nature, so the point is rather moot. In my opinion.

[JTD]

Don't forget to check NRL out as well. That will be an early indicator of any upgrade. Still an invest as of this moment but we'll see.

[The Eye Wall]

I'm intrigued by the LLC being pulled towards the deeper convection. If nothing has formed now, it won't be long IMO.

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

again 52kt is flagged

[knotimpaired]

Hello Erika!

50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

Love ya Derek but you may want to start eating

[RL3AO]

again 52kt is flagged

03 means the SFMR is flagged.

02 is for FL winds.

There is nothing wrong with the FL wind data.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[RevDodd]

the models are looking pretty good for this thing to be a north carolina hit

Dang and here we just had our first taste of fall!

[Air Force Met]

Hello Erika!

50kt FL, 43kt SFMR

they were flagged

Well...there is a 49kt/42kt that wasn't flagged...and the 50 kts was at flight level...not sfmr...

So...does it really matter that 1 was flagged when you have another one that's not flagged and is only 1 knot less? seems it was probably right. Flagged just means its questionable...not for certain bad. In this case...it looks right.

And they really aren't in the heavy stuff yet...

PS- There is an UNFLAGGED 50/43 now...and they are still on the edge of the convection.