ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[invest man]

OBX are coming into the crosshairs as probable landfall.

Certainly appears there are no more west and south shifts coming.

Until another west and south shift occurs. These things often windshield wiper. Don’t get caught up. Maybe it is the end and track will stay east of Wilmington. Maybe it’s not. There are still 3 looonng days until this is like, sort of maybe approaching a landfall.

Question is have finally got there track nailed down? GFS may have been right all along. One would think Euro would now have to move toward NHC also GFS too!

[wkwally]

What are the projections of Florence becoming a Cat 5? It seems that the wind speed is not to far off.

[PavelGaborik10]

Certainly continuing to look less an less impressive. Depending on how long the EWRC takes to complete cat 5 window may have closed. Jmo

Actually cloud tops have cooled again in the last 10 minutes, and banding features are attempting to pop back up on the east side.

The implications of the ERC are very difficult to forecast for a number of reasons. Duration, change in size, and environmental factors like dry air and shear will play a huge role in how much strengthening will occur after completion, or if it will even complete at all. This ERC could be a saving grace for the east coast if it never completes, or it could result in the structural improvements necessary to capitalize on the very favorable environment and boost this into a large cat5 monster. There is a reason why these processes and their results are so difficult to forecast.

I will say I would be extremely shocked if the EWRC didn't manage to complete given the fact that this storm isn't expected to make landfall for 72+ hours. I'd wager it's probably more likely to complete two EWRC'S before landfall, or at least undergo two.

[FireRat]

Another notable change from the NHC cone trend is the time of nearing and landfall, looks like it's slower and will landfall come very late thurs night or early Friday!

[eastcoastFL]

Recent data from buoy to her NW:

NDBC
Location: 27.487N 62.947W
Date: Tue, 11 Sep 2018 03:10:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 29.1 kt gusting to 40.8 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

[sbcc]

What are the projections of Florence becoming a Cat 5? It seems that the wind speed is not to far off.

From the most recent NHC Forecast Advisory: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/110241.shtml

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

That's 2 knots away.

[eastcoastFL]

looking at buoy data along her path it appears the water keeps getting warmer all the way to landfall. Im guessing its because the water is more shallow close to the NC coast...

[FLeastcoast]

Mandatory evacuation for Emerald Isle starts at 12 noon on Tuesday all visitors and residents should be off the island by 8 pm on Wednesday. The bridge over to the island will be closed to incoming traffic on 7 am on Thursday. Please keep us in your prayers.

Hopefully models will continue to shift east.

Prayers sent.

I will also keep you guys in my prayers as well. Stay safe.

[N2FSU]

I plotted the NHC 11pm forecast track on my aviation software, for a zoomed in view:

[EquusStorm]

Looks like a pretty nasty angle and location for very severe surge issues, especially if near high tide

[pcolaman]

Been watching the last 48 fames for over an hour and there is definitely a more westerly direction.

[Vdogg]

NHC forecast changes, last 3 advisories.

https://i.imgur.com/b9hPytb.gif

OBX are coming into the crosshairs as probable landfall.

Certainly appears there are no more west and south shifts coming.

This was predictable once it actually started gaining latitude. Once it turn NW proper, I wouldn’t be surprised to see an OBX landfall.

[Vdogg]

Been watching the last 48 fames for over an hour and there is definitely a more westerly direction.

It’s still gaining latitude. Just about to cross 26 N.

[floridasun78]

i think we know now wont move more to south too much too north what we see wobble by few mile to north or south i know that happen with Andrew few other hurr suppose come in by miami but move more to south one hour before landfall but we still got hurr force wind in gust

[eastcoastFL]

Florence is one impressive storm

[eastcoastFL]

i think we know now wont move more to south too much too north what we see wobble by few mile to north or south i know that happen with Andrew few other hurr suppose come in by miami but move more to south one hour before landfall but we still got hurr force wind in gust

Yah that seems to be the case with all of them. The stalling is what worries me. Frances just kind of sat here. It felt like she was over us for days in martin county. I hope Florence doesn't stall like some models show

[pcolaman]

Been watching the last 48 fames for over an hour and there is definitely a more westerly direction.

It’s still gaining latitude. Just about to cross 26 N.

I was thinking the same thing, but hasn't done so for the last 96 frames and moving almost due west in fact.4 clicks west to no clicks to the north is not wnw it is due west

[pcolaman]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... orbar=acht

[eastcoastFL]

Anyone know if landfall is shaping up to be near high or low tide?

[eastcoastFL]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=acht

Still appears to be wnw for the most part.