ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm4u]

Thunderstorms growing around the eye.. this is going to strengthen quick and soon

[wx98]

80 mph, 990 mbar at the 8:00 pm update

[Kazmit]

alright here we go. The football has tipped over and angular momentum has shifted to the NW and will be able to wrap to the south. then its all downhill from there.. another couple hours. hopefully while recon is in there.

next recon set will be a center pass. but pressure is already 997. probably 985 to 990 right now.

I'll bid we see a 987 tonight. Stabilization and ERC tomorrow, then boom when it gets into the Central Bahamas. Nice job this storm Aric, I've been reading while I've been on the road. This storm has strong potential to be a Cat 4 before landfall.

I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop down to the mid 970's tonight, and go through a couple EWRC in the next few days and get down to the 920-930 range before landfall. I can definitely see this one getting to Cat 5 (and not just barely).

I agree. While environmental conditions are not perfect, what Dorian has that a lot of other storms don't have is time. With no major inhibitors and several days before landfall, I could easily see this reaching cat 4 strength with cat 5 a possibility too.

[CrazyC83]

For the moment, there are no more intermediate advisories unless we get a special advisory at some point, although I would expect watches for the northern Bahamas tomorrow (and for Florida by late tomorrow or early Friday).

[GlennOBX]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

[eastcoastFL]

I find it interesting and maybe someone can help explain this to me. I’m looking at the wind speed probs and my area which is on the list as Ft. pierce seems to have the highest probability for ts and hurricane winds on the chart despite the predicted landfall being to our north a bit. This morning cocoa Bach was 2% higher than us. Why is that? I always thought the heavier winds would be in the NE quad.

Thx

[Aric Dunn]

and just like that eyw diameter is halved.. pressure should soon respond and winds will go up..

[eastcoastFL]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

Can you elaborate ? You don’t believe that it will turn left towards Florida? It doesn’t have anywhere else to go. There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of it that will force it left. The stronger the ridge becomes the further it will get pushed west. That’s about the only thing everyone agrees on

[eastcoastFL]

and just like that eyw diameter is halved.. pressure should soon respond and winds will go up..


https://i.ibb.co/JdYkRhW/18.gif

Amazing . This time yesterday ppl were still debating its survival.

[Tailspin]

Lightening bolts over and around the storm,as a rule of thumb suggests its intensifying.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1166843824464961537

[Rail Dawg]

I went to sleep in a parking lot garage in Panama City with Michael approaching.

Not sure of the exact timeline but I think it was Cat 2-3 at midnight when I closed my eyes.

At 5 am it was Cat 4 and intensifying. No one saw that coming. Final report it was a Cat 5 at landfall. Watching 185 mph winds up close can't be described.

The point is prepare for the worst. In the end no one really knows.

Chuck

[eastcoastFL]

confidence is significantly higher today than it was yesterday on track and intensity...someone in south or central florida is getting the eyewall then on the gulf coast..good setup for the chasers as they are looking at a double major landfall and they can easily drive to both locations

At least the chasers won’t have much traffic to deal with . Are you staying home for this one ? I’m about a mile from the beach in treasure coast... Putting up shutters tomorrow before I leave.

I am staying here, that was also the plan with irma even with a direct hit, im a mile off the coast...the only caveat is surge, if it ever looks like we are going to take on significant water than im off to higher ground..surge is never anything to try and out-think, NEVER..surge can easily knck down buildings, drown people, etc..its easily the most dangerous part of tropical systems

I hope you’re safe. According to the current track you should be fine if it verifies. Most important I hope you don’t lose power. That’s the main reason I’m fleeing. I’ll be a refugee in Denver for a week. My wife’s birthday is next week so we will make a vacation out of it and I’m sure my kids school will be closed anyway.

[ConvergenceZone]

This morning Jim Cantore made an interesting observation worth repeating now - he said Dorian has been favoring the right side of the cone and by my observation it seems to be doing that still, per the SJU radar that shows it on a 340 or 350 heading.

It's good news for Puerto Rico and I hope it will be good news for Florida too. I think too much stock is placed on the "robust ridge" - but many are forgetting the trough moving through the eastern states right now is robust, too, and is forecast to recurve Erin.

We have to remember Erin (and prior TD6) were in the same area for almost the past week - a trough carved in the atmosphere for that long just does not disappear overnight, and it will take time for the ridge to rebuild.

Jim might have really struck on the heart of the matter when it comes to Erin's track.

Some might recall the scene in "Hoosiers" when old Shooter had to fill in for the coach, and Shooter's observation that the other team was "picking [the basketball] low all night" - and that's what lead to their winning the game.

It's the same in a sense with Dorian - once something in motion sets a pattern usually it remains..

it could recurve, but it doesn't mean it will recurve it out to sea. As they said on the weather channel, it just means it will recurve it further up the east coast is all.......so even if it recurves, it will still be bad news for somebody

[eastcoastFL]

I went to sleep in a parking lot garage in Panama City with Michael approaching.

Not sure of the exact timeline but I think it was Cat 2-3 at midnight when I closed my eyes.

At 5 am it was Cat 4 and intensifying. No one saw that coming. Final report it was a Cat 5 at landfall. Watching 185 mph winds up close can't be described.

The point is prepare for the worst. In the end no one really knows.

Chuck

I’ve followed most of your adventures over the past. 10+ years. You do some great stuff along the way helping people that are stuck and bringing supplies. Stay safe my friend. I’ll be following

[lester]

According to AF Recon, the eyewall is now closed

Code: Select all

693
URNT12 KNHC 290001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL052019
A. 28/23:37:20Z
B. 19.12 deg N 065.56 deg W
C. 700 mb 3022 m
D. 992 mb
E. 150 deg 27 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C16
H. 46 kt
I. 214 deg 6 nm 23:31:00Z
J. 316 deg 46 kt
K. 214 deg 6 nm 23:31:00Z
L. 71 kt
M. 083 deg 3 nm 23:38:30Z
N. 146 deg 76 kt
O. 046 deg 6 nm 23:39:30Z
P. 9 C / 3055 m
Q. 15 C / 3045 m
R. 3 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF302 1205A DORIAN OB 04
MAX FL WIND 76 KT 046 / 6 NM 23:39:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 288 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[GlennOBX]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

Can you elaborate ? You don’t believe that it will turn left towards Florida? It doesn’t have anywhere else to go. There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of it that will force it left. The stronger the ridge becomes the further it will get pushed west. That’s about the only thing everyone agrees on

I'm VERY far from being an expert, and I'm not sure why, but I get the feeling it isn't going where the models are predicting. I don't have a specific alternate landfall to suggest, and I know I have a much more than 99% chance of being wrong. I just have this weird idea that the left turn won't be as pronounced, or won't be there at all.

I don't know why I do. I just do.

[mulley]

We have a crew heading east as we speak and they will be joining up with other parent company resources to release those who need to be prepping their homes and property, and to make sure all their family members have a safe place to go. I really like that our company does that. Staff from around the country poured into Houston when Harvey soaked us. Heartfelt thanks to them. Chuckster- be safe out their brother. I would love to hear from you if you can provide a report safely.
Best regards, LM

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

Excellent Post Rail Dawg. I am one through the years to not make very extreme observations , only when I thnk it to be in doing it so rationally prudent in.years of analysis. I have seen a potential of observing extremely dangerous tropical cyclones this close in.the region numerous times. We have seen several Cat 4 hurricanes , but Andrew and Michael last year have been the only occasions we have seen Cat 5 tropical cyclones strike in our region of Florida in recent memory.

Based on what we are seeing currently, and how rapidly Dorian is developing and strengthening, he will be a solid Cat 2 and maybe a low end major hurricane when I awaken tomorrow morning (in between power naps lol..)

I have been absolutely beyond amazed how Dorian fought off an hostile envrionment and even more amazed how the cyclone traversed tight passed Puerto Rico and well north of Hispaniola yo avoid major land interaction.

There is nothing.left , other than Eyewall Replacement Cycles, that can slow Dorian 's intensification from here on out until he makes landfall somewhere along the Florida East Coast late Sunday or early Monday morning.

Heck, the best optimal conditions with very low vertical wind shear, the very warm ssts and the Gulf Stream influence are still yet to be tapped by Dorian . This will happen when the cyclone reaches the Bahamas beginning during the day Saturday. I dwould not be stunned to see Dorian reach Cat 5 intensity late this weekend or just prior to landfall.

Be safe out there Rail Dawg. Safe chasing!!

[Highteeld]

Eye is getting more deeply embedded within the CDO. This is a sign of additional strengthening. I'm thinking 985 mb in about two hours

[Ritzcraker]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

Can you elaborate ? You don’t believe that it will turn left towards Florida? It doesn’t have anywhere else to go. There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of it that will force it left. The stronger the ridge becomes the further it will get pushed west. That’s about the only thing everyone agrees on

I'm VERY far from being an expert, and I'm not sure why, but I get the feeling it isn't going where the models are predicting. I don't have a specific alternate landfall to suggest, and I know I have a much more than 99% chance of being wrong. I just have this weird idea that the left turn won't be as pronounced, or won't be there at all.

I don't know why I do. I just do.

Well contrary to your belief, most meteorological and model guidance suggests the left turn...

[eastcoastFL]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

Can you elaborate ? You don’t believe that it will turn left towards Florida? It doesn’t have anywhere else to go. There is a ridge of high pressure to the north of it that will force it left. The stronger the ridge becomes the further it will get pushed west. That’s about the only thing everyone agrees on

I'm VERY far from being an expert, and I'm not sure why, but I get the feeling it isn't going where the models are predicting. I don't have a specific alternate landfall to suggest, and I know I have a much more than 99% chance of being wrong. I just have this weird idea that the left turn won't be as pronounced, or won't be there at all.

I don't know why I do. I just do.

Fair enough. The hurricane hunters send a bunch of planes not only to the hurricane but also through the area it’s heading towards. Those planes take air samples and that data is fed into the models. The high pressure ridge is already there Dorian just hasn’t reached the area yet that will push him west but once he gets there he has no other option but to go left. The only way he doesn’t is if the ridge were to move but there is no data to suggest it would move and that’s why the forecast sends as far west as the gulf