Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png

So much for East Coast Bias.

[Iceresistance]

Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png

Greenland Block is a big factor for this, and it's looking like it's ready to spill into the CONUS.

[orangeblood]

Coldest 10-14 forecast I've seen on the GEFS all season....really active battle ground setting up as well!! A lot more freezing rain/sleet indicators showing up on several members as well, suggesting the potential for shallow cold/arctic air becoming more established. As opposed to the "top down" cooling that's been occurring most of this winter.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021012612/gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_10.png

Greenland Block is a big factor for this, and it's looking like it's ready to spill into the CONUS.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs-ens_T850aMean_namer_12.png

Negative EPO!!! Until that ridge pops in Alaska, Greenland block alone won't force enough of that Arctic Air south. Need those two in tandem and we're in business!

Alaskan Ridge finally showing up in week 2

[gpsnowman]

The return of winter or the arrival? Good posts today offering hope. Fab Feb on the way!!!!

[harp]

What a difference a week makes. You guys were throwing in the towel last week.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What a difference a week makes. You guys were throwing in the towel last week.

This forum has to give up at least twice before we can have an actual winter Hahahaha

Pattern looks almost perfect for a SE Tx snowstorm. Needs colder air though. The GFS has some in Canada but on that run, it holds it further north. Possible the GFS latches onto it later.

One thing, people in NTx should be happy about this as well. These troughs at 240 hours typically come in deeper than they actually do.

[txtwister78]

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/pna/box/1611576000-4bHp2s2WzG0.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/conus/total_snow_10to1/1611576000/1612677600-c4RF6qfZkkw.png

Euro ENS has PNA headed into neutral and with that maybe some hope in the longer term? Active pattern continues but we need that PNA to come back to positive or neutral to give Texas a shot at some more fun and games before we call it on winter.

Give me a neutral PNA please. Don’t want a positive one. The east coast gets plenty of exciting weather events throughout the year.

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here

No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.

[Iceresistance]

Give me a neutral PNA please. Don’t want a positive one. The east coast gets plenty of exciting weather events throughout the year.

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here

No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.

Is it possible to have a Southern Plains Snowstorm with a Sub-Positive or Sub-Negative PNA?

(Sub-Positive/Sub-Negative means it's slightly away from Neutral)

[txtwister78]

I thought neutral or slightly negative PNA was what we needed here

No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.

Is it possible to have a Southern Plains Snowstorm with a Sub-Positive or Sub-Negative PNA?

(Sub-Positive/Sub-Negative means it's slightly away from Neutral)

I think all the teleconnections play a role, so it's not necessarily just about one. If you want more true cold air entering the US (more arctic blasts), then you typically would like a -EPO, but having a ridge over TX is obviously different than having one across the NE or Mid Atlantic so it's OK to have a little resistance in between (that's why I said neutral PNA not bad) because you do want systems (lows) to move a little further south with available moisture to work with than just setting the stage for big arctic blasts that come in and scour out all the moisture. As long as the NAO and AO stay negative (active pattern) at least we still have a shot for something if we can get the other two in the ballpark to what is climatologically more favorable for TX.

[Cpv17]

No you don't want a negative PNA. That's basically the pattern we've had for a few weeks. Negative PNA keeps the ridge across the south going and provides resistance to the cold and keeps it bottled up to the north. When we had snows in December and around the New Year we had a +PNA and a +EP0 (good blocking in Canada). NAO and AO staying negative is what makes this pattern interesting/active and not simply blowtorch/blah.

Another thing to note is the MJO might be moving into phase 8 as we move forward (colder phase for February). If we can get that rolling then were definitely in business again. Looking at one model run alone and saying look everyone -EPO or +PNA for that matter doesn't necessarily mean winter weather is a lock either. These things obviously fluctuate. I do think that with the continued active pattern in place (as I mentioned previously) and if we can get the ridge to get knocked down a bit (movement toward a neutral PNA or even slightly positive) then we can at least have something to track in terms of winter weather "hype" as opposed to what's in place now. Unfortunately, I also think we are setting the stage for more severe weather with this active pattern and clashes of colder air with warmer air to the south.

Is it possible to have a Southern Plains Snowstorm with a Sub-Positive or Sub-Negative PNA?

(Sub-Positive/Sub-Negative means it's slightly away from Neutral)

I think all the teleconnections play a role, so it's not necessarily just about one. If you want more true cold air entering the US (more arctic blasts), then you typically would like a -EPO, but having a ridge over TX is obviously different than having one across the NE or Mid Atlantic so it's OK to have a little resistance in between (that's why I said neutral PNA not bad) because you do want systems (lows) to move a little further south with available moisture to work with than just setting the stage for big arctic blasts that come in and scour out all the moisture. As long as the NAO and AO stay negative (active pattern) at least we still have a shot for something if we can get the other two in the ballpark to what is climatologically more favorable for TX.

Yep! A neutral PNA is the sweet spot.

[bubba hotep]

The biggest issue that I currently see with the upcoming setup is that a lot of the model solutions are splitting the energy and we end up with a cutter to the Great Lakes. This leaves some energy back in the SW but it also gives us a positively tilted system, making it hard for the trailing energy to do anything.

[Yukon Cornelius]

There’s a few here and there flurries up this way.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Does anyone believe in the "bath tub slosh" theory? I remember JB talking about it a very long time ago.
When he brought it up, temps were VERY cold in Siberia and the PV was mostly on that side of the globe. In his 'Slosh' theory, he believes that temps cant stay cold or warm on one side forever, that there essentially would be a flip-flop in patterns. Lets hope this plays out. Temps have been brutally below normal in Siberia.

[Cerlin]

Looks like some halfway decent radar returns on the red river. Temps busted pretty bad over OKC today so I’m wondering if that was the same for Texas

[Brent]

Looks like some halfway decent radar returns on the red river. Temps busted pretty bad over OKC today so I’m wondering if that was the same for Texas

Apparently graupel in Fort Worth

[Iceresistance]

Looks like some halfway decent radar returns on the red river. Temps busted pretty bad over OKC today so I’m wondering if that was the same for Texas

Apparently graupel in Fort Worth

I had snow from 1-2 AM this morning, relayed on the news at 6:30 AM (No, I was sleeping last night)

[Iceresistance]

Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February.



Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)



Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

[HockeyTx82]

Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif

It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.

[Iceresistance]

Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif

It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.

But, If it's consistant, then there is a chance.

The Noon Model runs have started, let's wait & see on what happens then.

[HockeyTx82]

Oh my Goodness, the true definition of a polar vortex in the 2nd week of February.

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_namer_fh168-384.gif

Ridges at Greenland & Alaska by the time the Polar Vortex arrives. (Yes, Pivotal Weather has a Forecast GIF)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021012706.500h_anom.na.gif

Can Clearly see where the Polar Vortex in February is coming from (Near the North Pole at +240 hours & track on where it goes)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T850a_namer_fh168-384.gif

It will shift east and Texas will go torch by runs tomorrow. Just saying I don't buy it. Seen this play out to many times only to have my heart broken.

But, If it's consistant, then there is a chance.

The Noon Model runs have started, let's wait & see on what happens then.

At this point I'll trust my weather rock over the models. The weather rock is always right.