Texas Winter 2024-2025

[snownado]

Question…for snow you usually want to have the 1000-500 thickness at 540.

The models show it snowing at 546 in DFW. Is this 540 rule not accurate in the south?

The 1300m thickness (blue) line, which is a indicator for below-freezing temps between 850mb and 1000mb, is a much better determining factor for snow vs. no snow unless you're at a higher elevation

There's a very detailed discussion about this below:

https://theweatherforums.com/index.php? ... n-the-pnw/

[wxman22]

EPS no longer hangs the cut off low over baja, it eventually ejects over the state , like seeing that

Massive uptick in mean snowfall, similar to its Op. Again, GEFS is the clear outlier here

Wow that's some good support from the ensemble.

[Stratton23]

Loving the trends in the long range on the ensembles as well!

[Lagreeneyes03]

Interesting:

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/187535747 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

This probably should be highlighted even more. This explains the disconnect between what some on here have been pointing to regarding arctic cold (yes, it's there), but it never really unloads into the United States. Explains why ensembles and operationals have shifted much warmer over the past few days.

Does that pretty much take any severe arctic outbreaks off the table for the forseeable future? ie rest of winter?(til March)?

[Throckmorton]

ICON (Jan. 4, 06Z) is forecasting 7.5 inches of snow for Austin Camp Mabry on Wednesday. This run does not include Thursday or later.

The record one–day snowfall is 6.5 inches on January 30, 1949, which resulted in its coldest temperature on record the next day of
–2°.

The record two–day snowfall is 11.0 inches on November 22–23, 1937. The temperature got no colder than 31° those days. The snow was gone two days later on Thanksgiving Day when the high reached 67°.

[Throckmorton]

Interesting:

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/187535747 ... _m1NXPw4Cg

This probably should be highlighted even more. This explains the disconnect between what some on here have been pointing to regarding arctic cold (yes, it's there), but it never really unloads into the United States. Explains why ensembles and operationals have shifted much warmer over the past few days.

Does that pretty much take any severe arctic outbreaks off the table for the forseeable future? ie rest of winter?(til March)?

No.

[gpsnowman]

Any good GFS runs overnight?

[Brent]

Kansas City outright mentioning a blizzard

Maybe one year before we're dead Texas and Oklahoma will get one of these

[WinterMax]

I think the ICON may have the best grasp on reality in the upcoming weather events, and yet I’d bet it is anywhere between 5-10 degrees too cold.

[Tammie]

Kansas City outright mentioning a blizzard

Maybe one year before we're dead Texas and Oklahoma will get one of these

Stay safe!
https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/187552009 ... J0be-HnN-w

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS and Euro with over a inch of QPF from the midweek storm. GFS has that all as snow. Euro is warmer so not all snow. ICON also has near an inch QPF. Canadian and UKMET are drier.
For DFW and Tyler areas: Euro is the warmest but even it is just 35 at its warmest. GFS is right around freezing. ICON is coldest keeping it all in 20s. Canadian is to the the south so it is above freezing along I20.

[orangeblood]

Great forecast discussion out of the FW NWS office overnight, pretty much verbatim what we’ve all been discussing on this forum over the past week. Bottom line, trending in the direction of a potentially very impactful winter storm later this week

Eyes turn to the Thursday-Friday (Day 6-Day 7) timeframe where
deterministic and ensemble guidance is beginning to coalesce
around two distinct scenarios regarding our primary upper-level
low and its influence on North and Central Texas`s winter weather
potential:

Scenario 1 (More Favorable for Winter Weather): The parent cut-off
low quickly phases out into an open wave trough, deepens, and
rapidly progress over the Southern Plains Thursday into Friday.
Strong lift, deep moisture, and low- to mid-level warm-advection
leads to widespread precipitation over much of North and Central
Texas Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon. A quicker,
stronger system will give less time for the overlaying Arctic
airmass to modify and warm, thus providing thermodynamic profiles
supportive of winter weather. Roughly 60% of GEFS, GEPS, and ENS
members support this scenario.

Scenario 2 (Less Favorable for Winter Weather): The parent cut-off
low remains detached from the flow aloft and meanders near Baja
California through the end of the week. Deeper moisture and lift
remains displaced to the west of our region. This slower system
will allow enough time for temperatures to warm enough across our
region to sufficiently diminish any winter weather hopes across
North and Central Texas. Roughly 40% of GEFS, GEPS, and ENS
members support this solution.

There you have it! At least some measurable wintry precipitation
is favored across North and Central Texas in the Thursday-Friday
timeframe, but there remains a 2 out of 5 chance that we avoid
any winter weather mischief. With the current suite of guidance
favoring Scenario 1, the potential for impactful snowfall has
increased some across North and Central Texas with a 30% chance
that much of the region observes at least 1" of snow. It is
important to note that we are still 6-7 days away from this event,
and the forecast will change as we gain better confidence in how
this system will play out.

What Can You Do Now?

1. Get those heavy coats out of the closet.
2. Prepare your home for cold temperatures.
2. Follow credible and trusted weather sources for forecast updates.

[mattman71]

2. Follow credible and trusted weather sources for forecast updates.

That's why I have been reading every page of this winter weather forum for the past 5 years!

[snownado]

Any good GFS runs overnight?

06z GFS bullseyes DFW...

[Tammie]

Any good GFS runs overnight?

06z GFS bullseyes DFW...

What timeframe would that be?

[Ntxw]

Good trends overnight for some of us. In fact qpf trends have been going up further north. Some models have convective storms moving into colder air, thunderstorms.

[iorange55]

Good trends overnight for some of us. In fact qpf trends have been going up further north. Some models have convective storms moving into colder air, thunderstorms.

Thunder snow is one of my favorite memories from that storm that dropped a foot of snow over North Texas.

[wxman22]

The overnight 6z GFS and Euro

[wxman57]

Overnight models are definitely warmer for Houston next week. Even the Canadian gave up on the ridiculously cold 5F-10F for next Saturday and now only has some lows in the mid to upper 20s, though it is still the cold with morning lows in the mid to upper 20s. ICON has a light freeze Tuesday and Friday. GFS, EC, UK, and NBM are above freezing all week (mid-30s to mid 40s during precip).

Haven't had a chance to look at anything but temps locally yet.

https://wxman57.com/images/00ZJan4Models.jpg

[Brent]

I'm in the same city as Jim Cantore