ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

If they upgrade, would this be the highest pressure for a cat 5 ever? The only one I can think of that might have it beat would be Felix...

For the Atlantic the highest one I can see is Hurricane Edith (1971) at 943mb. Gustav was close to a Category 5 at a similar MSLP.

Edith is subject to change since it hasn't been reanalyzed. If the 943 was accepted at face value with no other wind data, it would support 130 kt given its size and position, but it may have been stronger before landfall depending on timing.

[WmE]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

... I can't believe its been 9 years since the Atlantic had a CAT5...that's just mind-blowing. The basin has been turned off for so long now ...

Actually, if it were to make it to Cat 5, that would be better than average, because Cat 5s are rare and happen only once per decade on average. (At least. that's what I read sometime ago.) It's just that so many of them have occurred since the start of the active Atlantic hurricane cycle began in the '90s, that we think it;s normal to have them every couple of years.

Well the current drought of 9 years has been the longest since the 50s

[1900hurricane]

If they upgrade, would this be the highest pressure for a cat 5 ever? The only one I can think of that might have it beat would be Felix...

For the Atlantic the highest one I can see is Hurricane Edith (1971) at 943mb. Gustav was close to a Category 5 at a similar MSLP.

As originally mentioned, Felix's 150 kt/935 mb is also notable. The WPac also has some "category 5s" with pressures >940 mb, but that was back in a more primitive era of recon.

[Yellow Evan]

Pressure is kind of high for this to be a CAT-5, also the satellite IR image don't have a solid donut of cold cloud tops yet....so, I don't think Matthew is a 5 yet. It is quite possible and somewhat likely that Matthew could obtain that intensity though.....MGC

143 SFMR supports Cat 5 though.

[tatertawt24]

If they upgrade, would this be the highest pressure for a cat 5 ever? The only one I can think of that might have it beat would be Felix...

Highest pressure for a Category 5 ever was Edith 1971 with 943 mbar.

Oh I thought Edith was downgraded.

[Exalt]

It appears that NHC goes with 135 kt.

AL, 14, 2016100100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 720W, 135, 943, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 60, 50, 170, 1007, 160, 10, 0, 15, L, 0, , 0, 0, MATTHEW, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,

Watch the 135kt/155mph peak curse strike again.

[MaineWeatherNut]

Pressure is kind of high for this to be a CAT-5, also the satellite IR image don't have a solid donut of cold cloud tops yet....so, I don't think Matthew is a 5 yet. It is quite possible and somewhat likely that Matthew could obtain that intensity though.....MGC

Recon does sort of support it though. We will just have to wait another pass to see if the winds support it even more.

[1900hurricane]

How likely is Cat 5 by morning at this rate?

... I can't believe its been 9 years since the Atlantic had a CAT5...that's just mind-blowing. The basin has been turned off for so long now ...

Actually, if it were to make it to Cat 5, that would be better than average, because Cat 5s are rare and happen only once per decade on average. (At least. that's what I read sometime ago.) It's just that so many of them have occurred since the start of the active Atlantic hurricane cycle began in the '90s, that we think it;s normal to have them every couple of years.

Once per decade seems unrepresentative. I made this post a while back on the subject.

[NWFL56]

Eye temp has broken positive.

I asked an earlier question that must have gotten lost in the fray. Lol. What is the significance of an "Eye temp breaking positive"?

[Cyclenall]

I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

If it warrants it, NHC will do it. They extrapolated an 872 mb pressure between recon missions with Patricia in the postseason just last year.

Holy crap I didn't know that, I've been out of it! . 872 mb? Dats nuts and then some. I thought its final pressure was 878 or so.

[Cunxi Huang]

TXNT24 KNES 010032
TCSNTL

A. 14L (MATTHEW)

B. 30/2345Z

C. 13.4N

D. 71.9W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.5/6.5/2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. PT IS 6.0 AND MET
IS 5.5 BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK

AL, 14, 201609302345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1350N, 7190W, , 1, 127, 2, 935, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, JL, I, 1, 6565 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, ADT currently 6.1/6.1.

Both SAB and TAFB suggest T6.5.

[otterlyspicey]

This may be the best Matthew looks in it's entire life, and we don't even have daytime visible satellite to fully appreciate it's beauty. I think I can really enjoy it right now, knowing it currently (likely) isn't destroying or hurting anyone at the moment while appreciating it's meteorological beauty.

[tatertawt24]

Looks to be losing some CDG around the eye?

[Ntxw]

I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

If it warrants it, NHC will do it. They extrapolated an 872 mb pressure between recon missions with Patricia in the postseason just last year.

Holy crap I didn't know that, I've been out of it! . 872 mb? Dats nuts and then some. I thought its final pressure was 878 or so.

TCR granted 872 and they even acknowledged that there was a gap between recon where it may have even been lower than 870.

[AutoPenalti]

Florida looks to be in the clear again as of the intermediate advisory.

The NHC track doesn't change with intermediate advisories (only full advisories). The next update will be at 10 pm CDT.

My mistake, I deleted my post.

EDIT: as for the person who called me an idiot, I just look at the NHC cone and see what it says. It is interpreted differently to others. No need to insult anyone in this board.

[abajan]

It appears that NHC goes with 135 kt.

AL, 14, 2016100100, , BEST, 0, 134N, 720W, 135, 943, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 60, 50, 170, 1007, 160, 10, 0, 15, L, 0, , 0, 0, MATTHEW, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024,

Watch the 135kt/155mph peak curse strike again.

Yeah and the usual confusion which ensues, with some calling it a Cat 4 and others saying that it's Cat 5, partly due to the fact that many aren't aware that the Saffir-Simpson scale was adjusted slightly in 2012: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/sshws_2012rev.pdf

[Aric Dunn]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

[1900hurricane]

Eye temp has broken positive.

I asked an earlier question that must have gotten lost in the fray. Lol. What is the significance of an "Eye temp breaking positive"?

It means the eye temperature (per ADT readout) measured by geostationary satellite is now above 0*C. Like earlier when the eye broke into the off-whites, it shows the eye is continuing to warm, implying continued strengthening. The next breakpoint to watch is when it reaches warm medium grey, which is the warmest shade on BD IR. That will happen when the eye warms beyond 9*C.

[gatorcane]

seems to have increased forward wsw motion again.. this is going to be the key night it will pass all the models turning points tonight if it does not slow down and turn... then everything else is open..

Yep, as Alyono pointed out stronger="more west" while in the Caribbean. Aric is it pumping up the ridge in your opinion?

[1900hurricane]

I wonder what the chances are--if recon does miss the peak intensity--that it gets upgraded post-season, ala Emily. I say that because I don't remember that being done in quite some time.

If it warrants it, NHC will do it. They extrapolated an 872 mb pressure between recon missions with Patricia in the postseason just last year.

Holy crap I didn't know that, I've been out of it! . 872 mb? Dats nuts and then some. I thought its final pressure was 878 or so.

Yep, you can read all the good stuff the NHC did in the Patricia report.