ATL: IRMA - Models

[jlauderdal]

Last second recurve

dont see it, high was building back in

[weathaguyry]

Based on Steering currents on Euro, it could pull an Irene track, probably won't recurve

[Steve H.]

yes, this is much further SW than the 0Z run. This too shall change

[SouthFLTropics]

So hopefully we have all learned that everyone from South Florida all the way up to the Canadian Maritimes and Bermuda are most certainly still in play. And if I was in the GOM I'd at least keep one eye on it. Any "all clears" or "it's for sure going there" needs to be put to rest.

[tgenius]

IF it took that path, it's quite possible you would need to have Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warnings up the entire Eastern coast of Florida, especially given the mammoth size of the system.

[KWT]

heading towards carolinas. interesting run.

Yep exactly what I thought would happen, the cutoff low catches it and slings it northwards, once it connects there is probably no way out but right into the Carolinas on this run.

Very similar to the 12z CMC andnot much different to the 12z GFS at that point in terms of the broad synoptics. Way too close to call, that could easily become a Donna for example from that point.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, a stall. This was something I mentioned back on last Sunday of the potential of Irma possibly getting caught and blocked by strong rifging somewhere off the Southeast U.S. coast. Wow. Just may happen!

[caneseddy]

12z run

Let's see what the ensembles. GFS ensembles were much western than OP, with a cluster into Florida and the other into the Carolinas. W

One thing is for certain, a shift back west on the models after going east this morning. The Euro is too close for comfort here in South Florida.

[sma10]

Good lord, "As the Stomach Turns" continues ...

This scenario would be wacked if we were only 3 days away, let alone 8-10 days. Literally everything is still on the table.

Could it really all come down to the formation and placement of a rouge ULL in the TN valley? It would be impossible to correctly predict the precise placement and orientation of that 7-8 days out.

[Vdogg]

Last second recurve

That's a BIG hurricane! This lands in Carolina we'll still feel it in Virginia whether it's a direct hit or not.

[tolakram]

Recurve is recurve, does not indicate a miss, just indicates it's finally started recurving. Regardless, it does not matter because it's all fantasy at this point.

[SouthFLTropics]

IF it took that path, it's quite possible you would need to have Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warnings up the entire Eastern coast of Florida, especially given the mammoth size of the system.

Very much identical to the situation with Hurricane Floyd. A major Cat 4/5 cane approaching Florida from the SE and scraping the coast is an emergency planners worst nightmare. Only three main roads out of South Florida to move millions of people (I-95, I-75, Turnpike). And where do you send them??? Floyd had the largest peacetime evacuation in the history of the US in 1999.

[northjaxpro]

IF it took that path, it's quite possible you would need to have Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warnings up the entire Eastern coast of Florida, especially given the mammoth size of the system.

That is( IF) this manifests as the EURO is depicting. But, yes I would think that would happen given how huge and intense Irma would be by that time.

[Aric Dunn]

Quite many of the GFS members have come way west now into florida and the gulf..

[AutoPenalti]

Last second recurve

That's a BIG hurricane! This lands in Carolina we'll still feel it in Virginia whether it's a direct hit or not.

That covers about 8/9ths of the state of Florida.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Last second recurve

I don't think it will recurve from there Mark...No trough to sweep it out. The Carolina will take it on the chin if it was to run further.

Well now. Not liking the looks of that. My solace is that it is just one run 240 hours out. We have not had a storm that strong in that position with a blocking high for a long time in NC. But there is quite a bit of model agreement though 3-5 days so folks here will be keen on models at the current 96 hour official forecast point.

[northjaxpro]

WOW! Look at the mammoth size of Irma shown above. 919 mb. What a monster!

[AutoPenalti]

Quite many of the GFS members have come way west now into florida and the gulf..

Can you post them if you can, please?

Thanks!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/903692396462051329

[Nimbus]

Only thing I got out of this run was the trend near Puerto Rico.

https://imgur.com/a/oTRUI