2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like October 4th might be the magic date that we start to see development in the Western Caribbean. The catalyst looks to be a tropical wave that moves far south in latitude and even over parts of South America before heading northwest into the Western Caribbean. The wave looks to emerge Africa next Saturday September 26th. The 18z GFS pushes whatever develops over the Yucatán and into the BoC in the very long-range.

[toad strangler]

Looks like October 4th might be the magic date that we start to see development in the Western Caribbean. The catalyst looks to be a tropical wave that moves far south in latitude and even over parts of South America before heading northwest into the Western Caribbean. The wave looks to emerge Africa next Saturday September 26th. The 18z GFS pushes whatever develops over the Yucatán and into the BoC in the very long-range.

Complete Alice in Wonderland range.

[SFLcane]

Some more Alice and Wonderland range courtesy of the GEFS.

[Fancy1001]

Some more Alice and Wonderland range courtesy of the GEFS.

https://i.postimg.cc/BZBC6VpM/84-A19082-82-B9-4836-A58-B-59693384-B1-BB.png

https://i.postimg.cc/mgJYJfZ2/A7-A19-C0-B-EB96-41-D6-83-BD-93-C96-BD2-EE48.jpg

Perfect time and place for this year's category 5.

[SFLcane]

[ronjon]

Fantasyland on the long range GFS. But this is my biggest worry here on the west coast of Florida this hurricane season. With its superactive nature and the western Caribbean largely untapped of energy, all eyes focused here the month of October. We all remember that W storm from that very active 2005 season.

[toad strangler]

Some more Alice and Wonderland range courtesy of the GEFS.


https://i.postimg.cc/mgJYJfZ2/A7-A19-C0-B-EB96-41-D6-83-BD-93-C96-BD2-EE48.jpg

by the looks of this map, perhaps it's Mickey Mouse range

[SFLcane]

GFS-P still going at it.

[SconnieCane]

That's been a pretty consistent signal on the GFS-P and at times the op GFS for some trouble a-brewin' for Cuba and S. Florida.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z GFS starts development around 288 hours and has it crawling NNW at the end of run. For those in South Florida, is there enough troughing to bring it straight to South Florida? The map looks like it could being it to the NE Gulf / Panhandle area. Looks like more troughing is needed to turn it East into SFLA??





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[toad strangler]

GFS-P still going at it.

https://i.imgur.com/0GDBndB.gif

If you follow the tiny little spec of vorticity that sparks this, it originates around 5N and 35ish W. Pretty spurious if you ask me. Probably a phantom.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS-P still going at it.

https://i.imgur.com/0GDBndB.gif

Concerning that the models are sticking with this one. If it verifies it will track over that insane OHC

[chaser1]

Fantasyland on the long range GFS. But this is my biggest worry here on the west coast of Florida this hurricane season. With its superactive nature and the western Caribbean largely untapped of energy, all eyes focused here the month of October. We all remember that W storm from that very active 2005 season.

Will be interesting if we begin seeing some model continuity for either a gyre-like feature or Tropical wave to start taking shape over the W. Caribbean. That, and a shortening of the model run to model run time for genesis. I could easily this year producing a "poor-man's" Wilma or King to impact South or Central Florida. I could just as easily imagine nothing more foreboding then a big wet sloppy low end T.S. drifting north over W. Cuba and just parking itself there for a few days. There's certainly a lot of octane over the Western Caribbean so nothing's off the table for end of Sept/early Oct.

[SFLcane]

GFS-P still going at it.

https://i.imgur.com/0GDBndB.gif

If you follow the tiny little spec of vorticity that sparks this, it originates around 5N and 35ish W. Pretty spurious if you ask me. Probably a phantom.

Though long range the signature has definitely been there consistently.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS starts development around 288 hours and has it crawling NNW at the end of run. For those in South Florida, is there enough troughing to bring it straight to South Florida? The map looks like it could being it to the NE Gulf / Panhandle area. Looks like more troughing is needed to turn it East into SFLA??

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I wouldn't spend a second analyzing 500mb set up of a 384 hour map. Waste of time.

[toad strangler]

GFS-P still going at it.

https://i.imgur.com/0GDBndB.gif

If you follow the tiny little spec of vorticity that sparks this, it originates around 5N and 35ish W. Pretty spurious if you ask me. Probably a phantom.

Though long range the signature has definitely been there consistently.

Yes a signal seems to be there. But is the source real? Gotta get through that first ...

[SFLcane]

[DestinHurricane]

What are the potential of systems inside the Caribbean?

Very high. The question is will something take advantage of it.

[toad strangler]

What are the potential of systems inside the Caribbean?

Very high. The question is will something take advantage of it.

That's not saying much. Looking for clues in the long range on the GFS but don't see much earlier that could be a trigger down the road. I'm not sold on the origins of this La La land range system yet.

[SFLcane]

Potential is definitely there for a busy October.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1307742759986626563