ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Highteeld]

Guessing dropsonde shows about 969 with wind accounted for

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 964.6 mb (28.49 inHg)
From Miss Piggy, so I guess around 969.

[tolakram]

Watch the upper level flow to the west of Idalia. Turning toward favorable shear from what I can tell, which was forecast. Now conditions should be near ideal all the way until landfall, if the models were correct.

[CrazyC83]

NOAA 964.6 (low bias), 103kt FL, 84kt SFMR

That suggests an intensity of 90 kt right now.

[Extratropical94]

74kt surface wind from the NE eyewall drop, 110kt at 921mb

[Highteeld]

Saved

[Portaransas]

“I” names have the most retired names:
Ian (2022) resulted in 150 deaths
Ida (2021) resulted in 100 deaths
Igor (2010) resulted in 1 death
Ike (2008) resulted in 103 deaths
Inez (1966) resulted in about 300 deaths
Ingrid (2013) resulted in 32 deaths
Ione (1955) resulted in 7 deaths
Iota (2020) resulted in 84 deaths
Irene (2011) resulted in 48 deaths
Iris (2001) resulted in 50 deaths
Irma (2017) resulted in 150 deaths
Isabel (2003) resulted in 51 deaths
Isidore (2002) resulted in 9 deaths
Ivan (2004) resulted in 100 deaths

What’s interesting is 4 years in a row ‘01 to ‘04 the “I” was retired. When Idalia is it’s another 4 year streak, ‘20 to ‘23.

What else is interesting is that all but 2 have occurred since 2000. 50% since 2010. Hmmm.

[Extratropical94]

968mb/4kt center drop

[Iceresistance]

I think this is the true beginning of Idalia's RI based on the latest Recon

[weeniepatrol]

[tolakram]

AF about to make a center pass

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We are getting rocked by a nasty squall line here in Cape Canaveral.

[Clearcloudz]

I wanted to share this link in case anyone wants to see the storm surge as it happens.

https://www.youtube.com/live/JXoJM5FaDqY?si=DfDUKCer5ulTCbnM

[Highteeld]

968 mb/90 kts is probably a fair assessment for the intensity

[Bocadude85]

I just saw it! it does look like it will start moving NE till landfall.

Center is dead on with the NHC track currently. We'll see some jogs east and west as the center continues to mature (hurricanes never travel in straight lines, extrapolate motion over several hours instead):
https://i.imgur.com/6oeMhs3.png

I'm looking real time radar not satellite

She has taken a wobble to the east, look at the center drop from recon, not a huge wobble but a wobble eastward none the less

[CrazyC83]

968 mb/90 kts is probably a fair assessment for the intensity

That's a drop of 4 mb in just a little over an hour.

[SecondBreakfast]

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1696646404515512324?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

From Levi Cowan:

“This plane also found that #Idalia's central pressure is now falling at a faster pace than it had been in previous hours, indicating that the pace of strengthening may be quickening. This is unfortunately following the expectations of forecasters so far.”

[ChrisH-UK]

Just measured the eye of Idalia on tilt1 of radar out of Tampa and it's 5 miles across.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KWBC 292211
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102023
A. 29/21:44:51Z
B. 26.28 deg N 084.74 deg W
C. NA
D. 968 mb
E. 065 deg 4 kt
F. RAGGED
G. CO12-20
H. 84 kt
I. 099 deg 12 nm 21:41:47Z
J. 181 deg 103 kt
K. 095 deg 15 nm 21:40:55Z
L. 64 kt
M. 244 deg 6 nm 21:46:18Z
N. 313 deg 64 kt
O. 242 deg 10 nm 21:47:27Z
P. 15 C / 2458 m
Q. 23 C / 2460 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 1234 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA3 1210A IDALIA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 103 KT 095 / 15 NM 21:40:55Z

[tolakram]

221130 2625N 08439W 6965 02874 9661 +158 +125 296005 009 016 000 00
221200 2624N 08440W 6970 02877 9666 +161 +119 307015 020 019 001 00