TC Bertha

[Category 5]

That 994mb in the advisory has to be a mistake. That is unrealistically high for its intensity.

I'm puzzled by this myself. No explanation in the discussion. Could a pro met or somebody explain this?

Chacor: It could be, maybe they meant 984.

[x-y-no]

That 994mb in the advisory has to be a mistake. That is unrealistically high for its intensity.

I think so ... the 5AM had her at 987mb.

[soonertwister]

I was going to post a detailed analysis, but since most do not pay attention to them, I'll lurk and post pertinent, fact based short posts that contribute to the discussion.

Did short detailed posts (such as my timely and informative comment regarding the movement) suddenly become a crime?

Miami

I've certainly enjoyed them immensely, MiamiensisWX. Please don't stop doing them, I think they are very worthwhile.

Regarding the expected turn to the right, I've compiled the forecast predictions for 5AM AST today from Thursday through Sunday, and then today's actual position for comparison:
Forecast postion 7/3 through 7/7:
20.0N 46.5W 07/0600Z 03/0900Z
19.0N 48.0W 07/0600Z 04/0900Z
19.0N 49.3W 07/0600Z 05/0900Z
18.7N 49.5W 07/0600Z 06/0900Z

Actual:
19.3N 50.2W 07/0900Z 07/0900Z

From what I'm seeing, Bertha has tracked considerably west of forecast with direction more to the west. Much of the latitude difference from yesterday's forecast appears to be from the northern relocation of the LLC in the last 24 hours.

[x-y-no]

They may have done a copy/paste and forgotten to change it - several of the earlier advisories were at 994mb.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 JUL 2008 Time : 134500 UTC
Lat : 19:39:59 N Lon : 51:03:39 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 967.4mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.2 5.2 5.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 9 km

Center Temp : -29.0C Cloud Region Temp : -57.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Ivanhater]

>>Who said that Alabama, Mississippi, Louisana, and Florida had the best posters?

I did. Of course that was just a salvo to the NC, TX and SFL posters out there in good fun. There are tons of great posters. Those in Katrina's way mostly just got the hell out and stopped posting for a while until the "check in" thread. It was a joke, thus the smiley. But make no mistake, posters like Steve, MCG, Ivanhater, etc. are always worth the read.

Steve

Haaa..So true Steve..Cant beat the Northern Gulfcoast posters ..jk.

Looks like Bertha may hang around if the trough isnt deep enough, but isnt there a scond trough that should pick her up if the 1st one doesnt?

[Chacor]

Have emailed Forecaster Rhome. Hopefully he responds.

[cheezyWXguy]

lol i remember TS chris of 2006, when we were sure it was going to become a hurricane, when all of a sudden a huge series of outflow boundaries came through the center, causing a dramatic rise in the pressure. I dont think this is the case though. Its likely around 974mb, not 994

[Aric Dunn]

geee.... wow its an eye... hmmm thats crazy nobody ever would have though that last night with those microwave images and the eye showing up throughout the night that we would have nearly cat 3 hurricane .. darn i guess i should have said something.. oh wait..

[senorpepr]

That 994mb in the advisory has to be a mistake. That is unrealistically high for its intensity.

I think so ... the 5AM had her at 987mb.

The 12Z best track was 975 hPa.

[Thunder44]

I have always been told that a storm would go to a low not to a high. So it could turn and go into the low. Am I right or wrong?

The trough would have to slow down and amplify along the east coast much more. The ridge over the Southern US is too strong for that to happen.

[Category 5]

lol i remember TS chris of 2006, when we were sure it was going to become a hurricane, when all of a sudden a huge series of outflow boundaries came through the center, causing a dramatic rise in the pressure. I dont think this is the case though. Its likely around 974mb, not 994

Plus shear basically blew Chris away.

[WmE]

lol i remember TS chris of 2006, when we were sure it was going to become a hurricane, when all of a sudden a huge series of outflow boundaries came through the center, causing a dramatic rise in the pressure. I dont think this is the case though. Its likely around 974mb, not 994

Plus shear basically blew Chris away.

Yep seperating MLC from the LLC. I remember that everybody wondered why the pressure could rise so dramatically.

[NDG]

lol i remember TS chris of 2006, when we were sure it was going to become a hurricane, when all of a sudden a huge series of outflow boundaries came through the center, causing a dramatic rise in the pressure. I dont think this is the case though. Its likely around 974mb, not 994

Plus shear basically blew Chris away.

2006 had a lot more drier air in the Atlantic Basin when Chris formed and shear became problematic because of a weak El Nino developing.

[Chacor]

Corrected advisories issued. 975 mbar.

[Category 5]

lol i remember TS chris of 2006, when we were sure it was going to become a hurricane, when all of a sudden a huge series of outflow boundaries came through the center, causing a dramatic rise in the pressure. I dont think this is the case though. Its likely around 974mb, not 994

Plus shear basically blew Chris away.

Yep seperating MLC from the LLC. I remember that everybody wondered why the pressure could rise so dramatically.

If I remember correctly, a wicked TUTT just came down and that was it,

[Mecklenburg]

if the trend continues... bertha could become this season's first major hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

it wasn't the TUTT that got Chris... it was more destructive mid level shear... the same shear that caused Ernesto to collapse before Haitian landfall

[storms in NC]

I have always been told that a storm would go to a low not to a high. So it could turn and go into the low. Am I right or wrong?

The trough would have to slow down and amplify along the east coast much more. The ridge over the Southern US is too strong for that to happen.

But this is what might happen. this was in Moreheads discussion.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HPC PROGS SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA THURSDAY FROM THE
WEST AND STALLING OUT OVER THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND IT ON SUNDAY. OVERALL CAN EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WX...GENERALLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S/UPPER 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

[Chacor]

if the trend continues... bertha could become this season's first major hurricane

While it's certainly possible, I would not think it would happen.