ATL: IRENE - Models

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#2341 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 am

Could the fact the VDMs have got the wrong center play a role in the models? If the center was initialized correctly (at 17.4N 63.2W or so instead of 16.9N 63.0W)?
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#2342 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 am

Looks like the ridge is building back in over the top...
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#2343 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:16 am

weakness is evaporating quick, gonna be a squeaker. doesn't look like a Florida miss in this run.
Last edited by SeminoleWind on Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2344 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 am

So, if you're keeping score at home, GFS is now starting to agree with the Euro, who had a hit somewhere around Georgia.
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#2345 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:17 am

no recurve... sratight north at 117 hours.. heading towards GA and SC
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2346 Postby blp » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:18 am

108hr Absoulute monster riding the gulfstream waters.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfstropical850mbVortSLP108.gif
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#2347 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:18 am

114 hours, just off the east coast of Florida, being budged slightly west by the building ridge. Scary looking system in this run:

Image
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#2348 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 am

actually a slight NNW bend at 117 hours..
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Re:

#2349 Postby fci » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:19 am

MiamiensisWx wrote:In this run, a slower movement would allow the shortwave trough axis to lift NE and permit the ridge to prevent recurvature. The exact speed and strength of Irene would make the difference between a landfall near Savannah and a landfall between Miami-Cape Canaveral. A faster, stronger solution would intimate a track toward the coast of Georgia (NNW movement). A slower, weaker solution would favor Miami-Cape Canaveral. The relatively progressive vortex over Canada suggests the ridge axis may encapsulate Irene and force it to move ashore in east-central FL.


Wow!!!
Haven't seen you on the board for a while.
Please stick around and keep posting your analysis.
Your study of the science is always well thought out!!!!
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Re:

#2350 Postby GTStorm » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:20 am

Aric Dunn wrote:no recurve... sratight north at 117 hours.. heading towards GA and SC


Not too worried..for Savannah, there's always a recurve... :cheesy:
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#2351 Postby bella_may » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:20 am

When does the new gfdl and ukmet come out?
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Re: Re:

#2352 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:20 am

GTStorm wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:no recurve... sratight north at 117 hours.. heading towards GA and SC


Not too worried..for Savannah, there's always a recurve... :cheesy:


Not with the ridge there.
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#2353 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:21 am

On this run, anyone from Southern Florida to NC would be pretty scared if it were to come true...it is sooo close to the Florida coastline, it's just a matter of where it is once that ridge builds back in, as to who gets the big one.
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#2354 Postby USTropics » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:21 am

120 hours, looking like landfall will be north Georgia/South Carolina:

Image
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#2355 Postby SeminoleWind » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:21 am

the threat for Florida looks very real in this run, ridge holding tough and nudging westward and weakness very weak.
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#2356 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:22 am

Over the last week, nearly every gfs has had a FL hit or near hit......My concern is it runs the spine of the state and up into the carolinas and mid-atlantic causing an epic flood event.
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#2357 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:24 am

How far north would Irene get trapped if the major flood event sets up? Any chance it gets close to 45N and gets stalled?
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#2358 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:25 am

And its very rare that a strong system hits that part of the east coast. It depends on how strong the ridge will be when it is or if it builds back in.
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Re: ATL: IRENE - Models

#2359 Postby Tampa_God » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:25 am

I'm not convinced that Irene will make on time to catch the weakness, if there is much of a weakness at all by Thursday. Wonder where the models are going with this.
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#2360 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Aug 21, 2011 11:25 am

Thats an ugly track... slows before the coast.. bending back nnw.. scary..
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