Texas Winter 2012-2013

[weatherdude1108]

According to info. from WU, a weather station about 1.5 miles to my northwest "as the crow flies" reported "light snow" at 7:37 am. I left for work around 7 am, so not sure of my location as far as snow. But, sleet is a good start in any case! Free water.

[ravyrn]

Could a pro met or a seasoned amateur help me out. I apologize for the off topic, but please visit this thread to see what I'm seeking assistance with. Thank you.

[Ivanhater]

Winter wonderland outside

[iorange55]

Awesome picture, Ivanhater! I'm jealous

[gboudx]

Nice pic. But I don't see a snow angel or a snow/grassman yet.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Great pic Ivan H. How much did you get? Cant remember but did yall ever get snows like that back home? Also in regards to the discussion yesterday about the long range possible artic intrusion here is a piece from our local nws discussion this morning.

BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT WORTH MENTIONING...THE MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PLACE A LARGE PORTION OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO A DEEP FREEZE WITH WINTRY WEATHER IMPLICATIONS FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR MODEL PERFORMANCE AND CONSISTENCY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

[ravyrn]

Thanks for sharing the pic, Ivan! Glad you got to see some of the white stuff during your stay in the State! Hopefully you can get another viewing of the white stuff before your departure

[orangeblood]

Polar Vortex is forecast to split in less than 72 hours then that should set the stage for a potential January 1985 type Arctic Outbreak across the eastern 2/3rds of the US beginning around the 11th or 12th




The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[ROCK]

what did the EURO show in the long range last night? I am being lazy.....

[ravyrn]

Ntxw posted these last night, Rock. Is this what you were looking for?

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

There is a reason Texas cowboys wore ten gallon hats......it was to stop the sun from turning their brains to mush.

You fellows who are wanting, wishing and praying for the above obviously haven't been wearing yours!

[ROCK]

that EURO is a brutal run...I can see why the local AFDs need to start talking about the possibility....

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: that EURO is a brutal run...I can see why the local AFDs need to start talking about the possibility....

The thing is, there is widespread model support from the GFS, Euro, CMC, and the CPC super ensembles for this pattern happening around mid month. There's way too much model and teleconnection support to deny it now. The question is not IF any more but WHEN and HOW COLD, in my opinion.

[ndale]

:uarrow: that EURO is a brutal run...I can see why the local AFDs need to start talking about the possibility....

The thing is, there is widespread model support from the GFS, Euro, CMC, and the CPC super ensembles for this pattern happening around mid month. There's way too much model and teleconnection support to deny it now. The question is not IF any more but WHEN and HOW COLD, in my opinion.

If or when are we talking about any moisture with this, or is it too early to tell.

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

Beautiful Snow picture Ivanhater- unfortunately no snow, sleet, etc for Waco - as cold as its been for the past two weeks- I think I will welcome the 60's next week

[Portastorm]

@ndale -- I'm not sure if everyone here would agree with me, but in my amateur opinion, a pattern like that would supress the southern jet far enough into the Gulf that moisture would be absent. There might be some with frontal passage but that would be it. The high pressure coming down from the north would shunt the jetstream well south of us.

[ndale]

:uarrow:

@ndale -- I'm not sure if everyone here would agree with me, but in my amateur opinion, a pattern like that would supress the southern jet far enough into the Gulf that moisture would be absent. There might be some with frontal passage but that would be it. The high pressure coming down from the north would shunt the jetstream well south of us.

Thanks for the answer.

[Kennethb]

While I am all in favor of some decent cold. Just remember two years ago when both of the "reliable" models showed a 1050+ high building down the plains in the 6-7 day outlook and it just did not happen. Even some of the more conservative mets were acknowledging an arctic pluge. Perhaps this time will be different.

[Ntxw]

It's not going to be one big front that blasts through. Warm up this weekend will allow return flow and a storm will come middle of next week. That storm will replenish the lost snow cover between now and then in the central plains. Another one will will arrive by next weekend-ish and this will will usher yet another front laying more snow further south and these are the systems that should provide some excitement before arrival of big high pressure.

Right now the models do not show historic cold of any kind, very cold yes. However there is the remote possibility the SSW will pop the -EPO ridge sending even higher heights to Alaska, if that happens then we can talk historic. Still a remote chance

While I am all in favor of some decent cold. Just remember two years ago when both of the "reliable" models showed a 1050+ high building down the plains in the 6-7 day outlook and it just did not happen. Even some of the more conservative mets were acknowledging an arctic pluge. Perhaps this time will be different.

It depends on where you are. Some get it some don't. The East coast this time is at risk from the SE ridge that will block any strong cold air intrusion

[Ntxw]

It also looks like the AO's rise will be much shorter lived than I expected. Many models tried to get it to +2SD for about a week. Well that didn't happen and more like two or three days of blips over neutral. It's about to tank again...