ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[djmikey]

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[linkerweather]

I don't know what I would do either but that was a classic PUNT by the NHC in the 5 am discussion. With that said, GFS has been very consistent in its solution for days now. Back to twitter, website, updating newspapers, radio stations, etc.

[wkwally]

Just was informed that I broke a rule in here and I sure do not wish to upset anyone. I will say I was real lucky to pick up on that Euro change and I know there those in here who are a lot more than I do and I will be the first to say that I am learning alot in here.

[northjaxpro]

Be prepared folks. There will likely be more adjustments to the track as time progresses. This is no shock whatsoever especially given the divergence of the models.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Winds are gusting to 30 mph consistently with lots of rain here in Saint Petersburg. I was out in the balcony and the breeze feels awesome- its better than day after day of 90s temps and humidity. But there are coastal flood advisories and the tide in my backyard canal has been noticeably higher than normal at times of high tide. Looking at the tide reached in the canal, I would not
be surprised if coastal areas saw flooding.

[ozonepete]

Yes. This is pretty significant. And it should be. With all of the models except the HWRF shifting further north and east they can't possibly stick to the previous track. They will have to gradually shift towards Louisiana and will have to do it more with each advisory. Hopefully the shear will hold up so that Debby isn't too intense when it gets there. Here's the whole discussion:

000
WTNT44 KNHC 240837
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND LIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE MOST RECENT HWRF GUIDANCE...AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE.

WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART. MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS STORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. THAT TRACK
SCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE BEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS. HOWEVER...THE 0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT. IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE NORTH OF THEM. THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 27.3N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 27.5N 87.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 27.9N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 28.2N 88.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 28.3N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.5N 90.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 28.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 28.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[wkwally]

"NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST."
Now this quote from the NHC has my head scratching. IMO this might keep going back and forth for a day or so and maybe there is too much being placed on the models. This could be one of those storms that keeps everyone guessing till the last minute. I hope not as all I can think of is how many being caught on the road way from late warnings. Might have to wait to see what Recon says today.

[GCANE]

The ULL looks to be firmly entrenched at about 27N 93W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Looks like Debby will track into it and IMHO will put a lid on organizing Debby.

The UL vorticity will push down on Debby's ML / LL vorticity --> hindering spin up.

Could see a lot of displaced, deep convection from shear in the form of strong MCS's however.

[bamajammer4eva]

So far GFS has been right about Debby for over 2 weeks now. Wouldn't be surprised to see the EURO finally come around

Cough Cough. Uh no.

HA HA say again??? LOL JK

[Lane]

Apalachicola has to be feeling TS conditions, why have the not extended the watches/warnings east. Even if the storm goes West. If the conditions are experienced wouldn't that warrent an advisory?

[ozonepete]

The ULL looks to be firmly entrenched at about 27N 93W

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Looks like Debby will track into it and IMHO will put a lid on organizing Debby.

The UL vorticity will push down on Debby's ML / LL vorticity --> hindering spin up.

Could see a lot of displaced, deep convection from shear in the form of strong MCS's however.

But more importantly it will now have an influence on track. The whole point has always been that if the ULL didn't move out soon enough and the ridge didn't build down deep enough into the southeast that Debby would have to go further east as opposed to moving into Texas. That scenario is becoming very likely now. If the weakness (troughing) over the east is weak enough Debby will turn to the north (more towards GFS solution) but if the ULL doesn't move much but does weaken then Debby can still strengthen anyway. It is still a really tough call and, as Pasch said, there's low confidence.

[bamajammer4eva]

Apalachicola has to be feeling TS conditions, why have the not extended the watches/warnings east. Even if the storm goes West. If the conditions are experienced wouldn't that warrent an advisory?

Not an official NHC TS warning but a locally issued one

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
LEGS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS
OF THE COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT OFFERS GUIDANCE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR MARINERS...
AS WELL AS OTHER MARINE INTERESTS...ALONG THE OFFSHORE LEGS OF GULF
OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.


.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3N...LONGITUDE 87.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL...OR ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DESTIN FL. STORM MOTION WAS N OR 360 DEGREES
AT 3 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
IT IS VITAL THAT YOU DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. TO
DO SO COULD RESULT IN BAD DECISIONS AND PLACE YOU OR THOSE YOU
ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AT GREATER RISK.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED UNTIL THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AROUND 11 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GMZ770-775-250915-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.W.1004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
515 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE
LEGS OF OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NM...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS MAY INCREASE SOON. THE LATEST AREA FORECAST
IS FOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS. SINCE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. SEAS MAY BUILD AS HIGH AS 15
TO 17 FEET...ESPECIALLY WELL OFFSHORE.

$$

[caneman]

With that large shift on the Euro, GFS consistency, the 5 AM disco and what is taking place the NHC should have shifted right to La. and points East. Looks like a little face saving going with shifts instead.

[GCANE]

But more importantly it will now have an influence on track. The whole point has always been that if the ULL didn't move out soon enough and the ridge didn't build down deep enough into the southeast that Debby would have to go further east as opposed to moving into Texas. That scenario is becoming very likely now. If the weakness (troughing) over the east is weak enough Debby will turn to the north (more towards GFS solution) but if the ULL doesn't move much but does weaken then Debby can still strengthen anyway. It is still a really tough call and, as Pasch said, there's low confidence.

Actually, I need to retract a bit of what I just said.

Looks like the ULL may push south.

Also, the deep convection to the NE of the LLC may form an anticyclone and pull the LLC to it.

This could cause a quick spin up.

Very dicey forecast to say the least.

[ozonepete]

With that large shift on the Euro, GFS consistency, the 5 AM disco and what is taking place the NHC should have shifted right to La. and points East. Looks like a little face saving going with shifts instead.

Fair enough, but they have to be much more cautious than we do, right? In the end there are no serious winds over Louisiana yet and enough time to issue whatever warnings are necessary. That's the epitome of professional in the face of really conflicting info. Though they (and we) may want to be careful about trusting the euro as much as we have in the past during this coming season. Remember that the GFS was upgraded recently to try and handle TCs better and so maybe those changes are actually going to work out.

[northjaxpro]

Apalachicola on their 5 a.m. observation had moderate rain and east winds gusting to 36 mph and a barometric pressure of 1008 mb. The deep convective bands are spiraling in there and to Alligator Point along the Big Bend coastal region. They will be lashed pretty much all day today and it will only get worse should Debby move in even closer toward the coast from the southwest.

[wkwally]

I think it is going to be a very long day. I was waiting for the 5am forcast from the NHC but I am going to crash for now till later and see what it will look like later in the day as I just have a feeling this is going to start back and forth all day. and I can be wrong in this but I just have a gut feeling that all of the models are off and it is just too early to tell where this is going. IMO we will not really know till later today or maybe even tomorrow. and to tell you my feeling is that the NHC is scratching their heads on this one after reading their report

[Dean4Storms]

They should be issuing Tropical Storm Warnings from Panama City, FL westward to SE LA.

Even if the center heads toward NO, even they mentioned the heaviest weather is 100-150 miles NE of the center. No doubt now that much of the western Panhandle coast and westward is likely to experience TS force winds!!

[linkerweather]

With the shift in track and the uncertain statements, it probably would have been prudent to extend warning eastward or issue a watch. THE NHC typically doesn't make drastic track changes from advisory to advisory but they did indicate in discussion the likelihood of a trend in track forecast

[GCANE]

WOW! TRMM is showing a massive hot-tower. About one of the biggest I have ever seen.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... essed=Full

This is a game changer for sure.

Organization could be pretty rapid in the next 12 hrs.