Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Cpv17]

Is it possible that the models are having a hard time handling this event due to how massive it could be?

[starsfan65]

Is it possible that the models are having a hard time handling this event due to how massive it could be?

It is possible.

[Brent]

Is it possible that the models are having a hard time handling this event due to how massive it could be?

It wouldnt shock me I'm kind of in a wait and see mode until mid week when the nam comes into range tbh before i think we know for sure about the pre Christmas timeframe. We're also in that range where the globals like to lose the cold so theres that

[starsfan65]

Is it possible that the models are having a hard time handling this event due to how massive it could be?

It wouldnt shock me I'm kind of in a wait and see mode until mid week when the nam comes into range tbh before i think we know for sure about the pre Christmas timeframe. We're also in that range where the globals like to lose the cold so theres that

then it come back

[OKMet83]

Still have several ENSEMBLE members showing a Major Ice/Snow Storm from portions of OK/ N and C TX late Christmas through Mid-week.

Edit: At this point all the cards are STILL on the table... In-fact I wouldn't get so stuck on timing like before Christmas because depending on timing even if something doesn't occur Fri/Sat time-frame it still could from Christmas Day into the middle of next week.... So everyone just take a deep breath

[missygirl810]

Still have several ENSEMBLE members showing a Major Ice/Snow Storm from portions of OK/ N and C TX late Christmas through Mid-week.

Edit: At this point all the cards are STILL on the table... In-fact I wouldn't get so stuck on timing like before Christmas because depending on timing even if something doesn't occur Fri/Sat time-frame it still could from Christmas Day into the middle of next week.... So everyone just take a deep breath

Are ensembles better at predicting things?

[Ralph's Weather]

Are ensembles better at predicting things?

Yes, ensembles are typically more accurate especially at longer ranges (beyond 4 or 5 days).

[spencer817]

Anything interesting on 18z so far?

[starsfan65]

Anything interesting on 18z so far?

right now it is showing good rains on Tuesday.

[Brent]

DFW was supposed to be in the 60s today

The high has been 52...

Looking forward to the heavy rainfall Tuesday

Not really worried about the Christmas timeframe yet the pattern looks amazing still

[starsfan65]

DFW was supposed to be in the 60s today

The high has been 52...

Looking forward to the heavy rainfall Tuesday

Not really worried about the Christmas timeframe yet the pattern looks amazing still

too many clouds

[Brent]

GFS is much cooler Friday for whatever thats worth

[ThunderSleetDreams]

If you look at hours 108-120, you start to see where the real cold blast starts to set up (-20 to -30) temps funneling into Alaska. Guessing that’s our cold weather the week after Christmas

[Brent]

Last sentence from FWD

One thing is for certain is that some of the
coldest air looks on tap for our area between Christmas and New
Years.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Last sentence from FWD

One thing is for certain is that some of the
coldest air looks on tap for our area between Christmas and New
Years.

You can see it coming. Texas Bowl Tailgate will be chilly with my Mizzou and Horn friends

[iorange55]

18z GFS: cold coming down Christmas Eve..

Well this run is a bit colder on Christmas. Cold comes down faster, but I don’t think it’s fast enough yet. *comparing to the 12z run.

[starsfan65]

18z GFS: cold coming down Christmas Eve..

Well this run is a bit colder on Christmas. Cold comes down faster, but I don’t think it’s fast enough yet. *comparing to the 12z run.

Underestimating Polar Cold fronts is a bad thing. It could come faster than models indicate.

[wxman57]

Are ensembles better at predicting things?

Yes, ensembles are typically more accurate especially at longer ranges (beyond 4 or 5 days).

I wouldn't say that ensembles are, individually, more accurate than the operational runs. An ensemble is a number of extra runs of a model, like the GFS. The GFS has 20 ensemble members (runs). Each of the 20 ensemble members is run with slightly different initial conditions, to try to take into consideration the uncertainty in the initial atmospheric conditions. To save time, these 20 GFS ensemble members are run at a lower resolution than the operational run. As a whole, the ensemble members provide a range of uncertainty in the operational run. It IS true that averaging a number of ensemble members can often produce a better overall forecast than the operational run. But just because a few of the 20 GFS ensembles say snow doesn't make snow more likely. It's the average that counts.

By the way, the Canadian model also has 20 ensemble members. The ECMWF has 51 members, 50 run with slightly different initial conditions and 1 run with the same initial conditions as the operational run but run at the lower resolution of the other 50 members.

[missygirl810]

Are ensembles better at predicting things?

Yes, ensembles are typically more accurate especially at longer ranges (beyond 4 or 5 days).

I wouldn't say that ensembles are, individually, more accurate than the operational runs. An ensemble is a number of extra runs of a model, like the GFS. The GFS has 20 ensemble members (runs). Each of the 20 ensemble members is run with slightly different initial conditions, to try to take into consideration the uncertainty in the initial atmospheric conditions. To save time, these 20 GFS ensemble members are run at a lower resolution than the operational run. As a whole, the ensemble members provide a range of uncertainty in the operational run. It IS true that averaging a number of ensemble members can often produce a better overall forecast than the operational run. But just because a few of the 20 GFS ensembles say snow doesn't make snow more likely. It's the average that counts.

By the way, the Canadian model also has 20 ensemble members. The ECMWF has 51 members, 50 run with slightly different initial conditions and 1 run with the same initial conditions as the operational run but run at the lower resolution of the other 50 members.

All of you must get one h*ll of a headache trying to figure all of those out!! LOL!!

[Ralph's Weather]

Are ensembles better at predicting things?

Yes, ensembles are typically more accurate especially at longer ranges (beyond 4 or 5 days).

I wouldn't say that ensembles are, individually, more than the operational runs. An ensemble is a number of extra runs of a model, like the GFS. The GFS has 20 ensemble members (runs). Each of the 20 ensemble members is run with slightly different initial conditions, to try to take into consideration the uncertainty in the initial atmospheric conditions. To save time, these 20 GFS ensemble members are run at a lower resolution than the operational run. As a whole, the ensemble members provide a range of uncertainty in the operational run. It IS true that averaging a number of ensemble members can often produce a better overall forecast than the operational run. But just because a few of the 20 GFS ensembles say snow doesn't make snow more likely. It's the average that counts.

By the way, the Canadian model also has 20 ensemble members. The ECMWF has 51 members, 50 run with slightly different initial conditions and 1 run with the same initial conditions as the operational run but run at the lower resolution of the other 50 members.

I wanted to make my post along these lines but my 2 year old was not patient enough for that. Thanks for elaborating.