ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

if a hurricane tracked up the spine of the peninsula there would be "spread the misery" conditions but if the storm is tracking to your east you're going to need to be pretty close to get creamed. Look how benign conditions were over southeast florida as matthew passed by. or more recently, check out the gradient in the Corpus Christi area from Harvey.

if it went up the spine, do you think inland areas like Ocala would see Hurricane force winds?

Not if it was moving over land the whole way from the south. it would take too long to get there. I like the MEOW modeling that was done for inland winds. it is a terrific tool.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml

[FLeastcoast]

I fully understand we're still some days out from knowing anything as close to certain as models and tracks can get. But with all the west shifts I am getting extremely nervous. My last hurricane was Ivan (Im in Pensacola)and that was pre-children. I am very nervous to go through a hurricane with three relatively young children.

As much as I wish I could keep needed items all year long that just isn't feasible due to space. ANYWAYS! Sorry for the blubbering!

While I was at Walmart today I noticed almost both sides of the water aisle were nearly empty.
So what I'm wondering and would love some insight from some hurricane veterans - approximately what day (IF the models continue to shift our way) should I venture out to track down needed items?
The thought of facing a strong hurricane with children sends my brain into a hizzy.

Though most Floridians have heard the mantra "have a hurricane plan", most do not. Understandably, many people might be new to the state and realize the potential risk nor fully grasp the level of discomfort that occurs following the effects of a hurricane (let along the potential impact and damage caused by a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane). My recommendation right now, for those living in South or Central Florida and if planning to "stay put" in their home should Irma make landfall or closely approach..... calmly make some phone calls and upon finding stores well stocked with water, batteries, extra cell phone battery bank/chargers, etc - go buy these items as if you were told that the risk is imminent. It may not be convenient to go out and buy first aid supplies, surplus canned foods, baby supplies, gas in gas tanks, cash on hand (since ATM machines will not work without electric), water, etc. but that is what having a plan is all about. Furthermore, the last thing one wants is to feel trapped with a hurricane fast bearing down but without ample supplies to last at least a week. Being in that position with small children only results in a tremendous around of greater stress and obviously that much greater risk.

I am in the same situation with 3 young children who also have some special needs and I have 3 big dogs. I am terrified. I want to just leave FL but can't even figure out where to even go. This storm is all over the place and Harvey flooded half of my choices and there are fires to the west and potential Irma damage to the east states. I am completely freaking out. I have been through hurricanes, but I was never the "decision maker" I hate this so so much. GA seems too close..CA is on fire. I hate waiting till the last minute but I guess I have to without knowing a better idea of the path. uugh

[Aric Dunn]

the large.. likey 20 mile wide eye is about to clear out at 16.88° N 51.37° W ish..

[FLeastcoast]

Sure we've all seen the latest GFS by now and I know anything can change but I want to have a plan just in case.

I live in Orlando, not in a low lying area. If you were me, would you evacuate or stick around? (I know most of you will say follow law enforcement orders) but do they typically evacuate Orlando? I'm new to hurricanes so this would be my first.

I would like to know the answer to this as well!

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I fully understand we're still some days out from knowing anything as close to certain as models and tracks can get. But with all the west shifts I am getting extremely nervous. My last hurricane was Ivan (Im in Pensacola)and that was pre-children. I am very nervous to go through a hurricane with three relatively young children.

As much as I wish I could keep needed items all year long that just isn't feasible due to space. ANYWAYS! Sorry for the blubbering!

While I was at Walmart today I noticed almost both sides of the water aisle were nearly empty.
So what I'm wondering and would love some insight from some hurricane veterans - approximately what day (IF the models continue to shift our way) should I venture out to track down needed items?
The thought of facing a strong hurricane with children sends my brain into a hizzy.

Though most Floridians have heard the mantra "have a hurricane plan", most do not. Understandably, many people might be new to the state and realize the potential risk nor fully grasp the level of discomfort that occurs following the effects of a hurricane (let along the potential impact and damage caused by a Cat 4 or Cat 5 hurricane). My recommendation right now, for those living in South or Central Florida and if planning to "stay put" in their home should Irma make landfall or closely approach..... calmly make some phone calls and upon finding stores well stocked with water, batteries, extra cell phone battery bank/chargers, etc - go buy these items as if you were told that the risk is imminent. It may not be convenient to go out and buy first aid supplies, surplus canned foods, baby supplies, gas in gas tanks, cash on hand (since ATM machines will not work without electric), water, etc. but that is what having a plan is all about. Furthermore, the last thing one wants is to feel trapped with a hurricane fast bearing down but without ample supplies to last at least a week. Being in that position with small children only results in a tremendous around of greater stress and obviously that much greater risk.

I am in the same situation with 3 young children who also have some special needs and I have 3 big dogs. I am terrified. I want to just leave FL but can't even figure out where to even go. This storm is all over the place and Harvey flooded half of my choices and there are fires to the west and potential Irma damage to the east states. I am completely freaking out. I have been through hurricanes, but I was never the "decision maker" I hate this so so much. GA seems too close..CA is on fire. I hate waiting till the last minute but I guess I have to without knowing a better idea of the path. uugh

You're thinking of evacuating all the way to California? Isn't that going to be...difficult?
When I evacuated from the Texas Gulf Coast, I always went to San Antonio. I'm pretty sure you don't have to go *that* far inland.

[FLeastcoast]

Sure we've all seen the latest GFS by now and I know anything can change but I want to have a plan just in case.

I live in Orlando, not in a low lying area. If you were me, would you evacuate or stick around? (I know most of you will say follow law enforcement orders) but do they typically evacuate Orlando? I'm new to hurricanes so this would be my first.

The GFS would be the absolute worst case scenario imaginable.

Almost 6 million in the Miami metro (Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm) as of 2014. I know some folks would stay behind, but could you imagine an exodus of that many people north? There's only four highways out of South Florida - I-95, the Turnpike, US 27 and I-75.

I don't even want to think about that. And thats not to mention the extra 6+ million people that are between Tampa and Orlando.

Sorry, I am confused...Does that mean that the OP should leave Orlando is the GFS came to fruition? thanks

[sponger]

Sure we've all seen the latest GFS by now and I know anything can change but I want to have a plan just in case.

I live in Orlando, not in a low lying area. If you were me, would you evacuate or stick around? (I know most of you will say follow law enforcement orders) but do they typically evacuate Orlando? I'm new to hurricanes so this would be my first.

The GFS would be the absolute worst case scenario imaginable.

Almost 6 million in the Miami metro (Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm) as of 2014. I know some folks would stay behind, but could you imagine an exodus of that many people north? There's only four highways out of South Florida - I-95, the Turnpike, US 27 and I-75.

I don't even want to think about that. And thats not to mention the extra 6+ million people that are between Tampa and Orlando.

Sorry, I am confused...Does that mean that the OP should leave Orlando is the GFS came to fruition? thanks

Orlando is unlikely to require an evac. Inland is usually fine in a sturdy structure. If not, evac to a shelter.

[Aric Dunn]

its going to be passing to the south of the next forecast point.. also look at the size of that eye..

I guess the models were right on with the growing size .. sheesh ..

[Langinbang187]

Irma's definitely looking better than earlier imo. When will recon arrive?

[Aric Dunn]

look at that huge eye and very deep convection in the eyewall ! very likely to have a cat 4 when recon arrives in a couple hours.. also still dropping wsw at a good clip..

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/goes/abi/ ... and14.html ir channel 4 ..

[cfltrib]

Except for the Everglades and Keys, 20 - 25 miles inland in a well-built shelter should be safe up to a Cat 4 hurricane at landfall - if not in a flood-prone area. Cat 3 at landfall would move that zone to west of I-95, generally speaking. This is just my opinion based on living in central Fla since childhood in the late 50's. If you feel your location is safe enough to ride it out where you are, be sure to fill any container (tubs, sinks, washer, trash cans, etc.) with water to flush toilets and hand wash clothes, if needed. Have a week's worth of non-refrigerated food on hand (canned soups and stews, crackers, fruit, etc.) and something to heat food. You can use a 3" piece of mosquito coil, burned prior to entering a bedroom to keep that room mosquito free for the night.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is in the air.. one hours to first pass..

[aperson]

Watching its vertical structure build has been beautiful, wow!

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Recurve]

Regarding evacuating from a place like Orlando: Always Consult local authorities. Flood risk must be considered. In general: If you are in a study structure with hurricane protection (shutters, reinforced garage door, roof designed for Cat 3) you should plan on sheltering in place. That means having a week's worth of water, food, and emergency lighting and other necessities (medicine, pet food, disposable eating utensils, camp stove, etc).
If you are in an unsafe location, such as a mobile home, older house, building vulnerable to falling trees, or other situations that make riding out a hurricane unwise, then consider going a few miles away to a well-built shelter, hotel, or someone's house. There is no need to leave the state, be it Florida or North Carolina or wherever, and long-distance evacuations are much more stressful and potentially dangerous.
In all likelihood, you won't get the eyewall of a major hurricane, and most residents will have to deal with at most power outages, possibly downed trees, and maybe some roof or window damage. I've been through many evacuations, close calls, misses, and unexpectedly bad "minor" storms. There is no need to freak out, just make a plan, evaluate what's really needed to protect you and your family's lives, keep up with the forecasts (but not every model run), and hope for the best.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Blinhart]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Looks like she is getting very big, with a very big eye, and very intense. I'm afraid to see what happens with recon and if this goes through RI and EWRC before the islands, look out, we could have a storm over 600 miles wide and a Cat 5 with a massive wind field.

[EquusStorm]

Just looking at the cloud motion around the CDO is very impressive. Maybe the structure isn't prefect yet, but you can tell it's a pretty intense storm by the speed it's wrapping the clouds around the center.

[Aric Dunn]

amazing transformation.. .. should see the next cat 4 within the next 6 to 8 hours..still dropping wsw.. though a little less probably back to 255 degrees to 250..

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KWBC 040750
NOAA2 0211A IRMA HDOB 06 20170904
074030 1429N 05540W 5051 05801 0301 -033 -102 003017 018 009 001 00
074100 1431N 05538W 5051 05800 0300 -031 -100 009015 016 007 001 00
074130 1432N 05537W 5051 05800 0300 -033 -094 005015 017 007 001 00
074200 1434N 05535W 5048 05802 0300 -036 -077 356016 017 009 001 00
074230 1435N 05533W 5050 05801 0299 -035 -073 352017 018 007 001 00
074300 1436N 05532W 5049 05802 0299 -025 -108 003022 023 010 001 03
074330 1437N 05529W 5047 05803 0299 -026 -268 001023 023 007 002 03
074400 1438N 05527W 5048 05802 0298 -029 -346 001023 023 008 001 00
074430 1438N 05525W 5046 05808 0302 -030 -325 357021 022 008 001 00
074500 1439N 05522W 5047 05811 0306 -032 -285 354021 021 007 001 00
074530 1440N 05520W 5048 05810 0306 -029 -354 354021 021 009 001 00
074600 1440N 05517W 5046 05813 0305 -035 -385 356021 022 011 000 00
074630 1441N 05515W 5047 05813 0306 -040 -394 356020 020 012 000 00
074700 1441N 05512W 5044 05814 0305 -042 -346 002022 023 009 001 00
074730 1442N 05510W 5044 05814 0304 -040 -299 003023 024 009 001 00
074800 1443N 05507W 5046 05812 0304 -035 -331 358023 023 012 001 00
074830 1443N 05505W 5045 05813 0305 -029 -366 350022 023 012 001 00
074900 1444N 05502W 5043 05814 0305 -032 -381 352022 022 010 001 00
074930 1444N 05459W 5044 05813 0304 -031 -323 349023 023 009 001 00
075000 1445N 05457W 5044 05813 0304 -029 -346 347023 023 012 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

this is completely bombing out right now.. pretty amazing to watch.. however the continued wsw motion is very worrisome for PR...

[FLeastcoast]

Except for the Everglades and Keys, 20 - 25 miles inland in a well-built shelter should be safe up to a Cat 4 hurricane at landfall - if not in a flood-prone area. Cat 3 at landfall would move that zone to west of I-95, generally speaking. This is just my opinion based on living in central Fla since childhood in the late 50's. If you feel your location is safe enough to ride it out where you are, be sure to fill any container (tubs, sinks, washer, trash cans, etc.) with water to flush toilets and hand wash clothes, if needed. Have a week's worth of non-refrigerated food on hand (canned soups and stews, crackers, fruit, etc.) and something to heat food. You can use a 3" piece of mosquito coil, burned prior to entering a bedroom to keep that room mosquito free for the night.

but have we ever had one this big and strong come right up the center of FL before? that is what the GFS looked like it thought it might do.