Texas Winter 2019-2020

[TropicalTundra]

. Just about all data agrees on the Central to East Texas snow Wed night now.

The perfect Texas winter storm lol

Yep, haha. But honestly it is such a close call for DFW between mostly rain, an inch of sleet or a few inches of snow. A degree or two change anywhere in the lower few thousand feet will change things drastically for yall. For East Texas Wed is at best a sleet/rain mix. Wed night thankfully appears to be a snow threat primarily though I will wait until tomorrow to be very confident in that event.

. Just about all data agrees on the Central to East Texas snow Wed night now.

What about central texas? Snow covered backyard or icy roads? Wouldn’t mind either of them

[TropicalTundra]

112 Guests? That’s almost more than what I saw in January

[Ralph's Weather]

The perfect Texas winter storm lol

Yep, haha. But honestly it is such a close call for DFW between mostly rain, an inch of sleet or a few inches of snow. A degree or two change anywhere in the lower few thousand feet will change things drastically for yall. For East Texas Wed is at best a sleet/rain mix. Wed night thankfully appears to be a snow threat primarily though I will wait until tomorrow to be very confident in that event.

What about central texas? Snow covered backyard or icy roads? Wouldn’t mind either of them

I could see part of Central Texas getting an inch or two of snow Wed night. Northern Central Texas could get in on the sleet during the day Wed.

[wxman57]

Why would y'all want to go see somebody else's snow? I have had chances to do that here, it just doesn't interest me.

I have to agree with you on this. I've seen feet of snow several times in Colorado with blizzard conditions. It doesn't really excite me unless it's at my house. I do love to see snow here in Houston. Cold without snow, though, is useless to me.

Where are you in South Louisiana? I grew up in Lafayette.

[Texas Snow]

Just a quick peek at what 2 Hi-Res models (HRRR amd WRF-ARW) say should be happening now in the panhandle. HRRR might be barely warmer for what should be happening now compared to the WRF. That said, both are too warm behind the front based on surface observations.

Doesn't mean that it will be that much colder here for us in DFW, East, or Central Texas so don't go thinking that means we're getting hit now, but also shows they don't have it down right yet on this thing so keep watching folks.

[Cpv17]

Why would y'all want to go see somebody else's snow? I have had chances to do that here, it just doesn't interest me.

I couldn’t agree more!!

[harp]

Why would y'all want to go see somebody else's snow? I have had chances to do that here, it just doesn't interest me.

I have to agree with you on this. I've seen feet of snow several times in Colorado with blizzard conditions. It doesn't really excite me unless it's at my house. I do love to see snow here in Houston. Cold without snow, though, is useless to me.

Where are you in South Louisiana? I grew up in Lafayette.

. Just west of New Orleans in Harahan.

[Texas Snow]

While the AFD is not quite out yet I am now even more curious. My Pinpoint forecast just went down to a high of 34 on Wednesday with 80% wintry mix before noon. Step in the right direction with 36 hours to go




Edit: And as soon as i typed that, now it is out:






LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Late Tuesday night through Thursday/

As being advertised over the last couple of days...the main focus
of the forecast is the winter precipitation Tuesday night into
Wednesday night. A few changes were made to the previous forecast,
especially to the temperatures, accumulations, and PoPs. In
general, rain will likely transition into wintry mix Tuesday night
across the northwest counties and continue its way through North
and parts of Central TX by early Wednesday morning. A complete
transition to snow/sleet will be possible on Wednesday. We still
expect that all this precipitation should be out of our area by
early Thursday morning.

Latest model guidance continues to show a synoptic and dynamic
pattern that supports wintry precipitation for our area starting
Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The combination of a strong
upper trough to our west providing lift and decent moisture and
instability in place will give the ingredients for precipitation
to develop. But, what we really want to know is: Where it will be
just cold rain or wintry mix? This is where the temperature
profile comes into play. For this event (and honestly, most of
them), the big forecast challenge is how cold it will be at the
surface and throughout the column. We inclined to pick the NAM
over the rest of the guidance, as it handles the shallow cold
fronts well. While the NAM is the coldest of the traditional
synoptic models, it is slightly warmer than other high-resolution
models (HREF). There is a possibility that future updates will
have to go colder than we have currently shown for highs on
Wednesday. Therefore winter impacts may spread farther south and
east than currently forecast. For now, most of North and Central
TX will be in the low 30 during the day with strong north winds
15-20 mph.

We still expect that the greatest potential for accumulations and
impacts will be areas to the north and west of the DFW Metroplex,
where the Winter Storm Watch is in effect. We increased the snow
and sleet accumulations to 2-4 inches across the far northwest
counties, with isolated higher amounts. Lighter accumulations (an
inch or less) will be possible farther south and east (including
the DFW Metroplex), which will may also have impacts on travel.
Areas across the far southeastern counties will mainly stay in
cold rain during the day on Wednesday, but a light freezing rain
and snow/sleet may mix in with the rain Wednesday night. We like
to remind everyone that there are still uncertainties with this
forecast, so we need to closely monitor the details as the event
evolves.

One thing we know sure is that it will be cold the next couple of
days. Wind chill values on Wednesday will be in the 10s and 20s.
The cold weather will continue on Thursday, with morning lows well
below normal values for February. We are forecasting low 20s
across the northwest, to low 30s across the southeast. The good
news is that the sun will return and it will help the afternoon
high temperatures to reach the 40s and low 50s Thursday.

Sanchez

/Thursday Night through Monday/

The upper level trough responsible for the wintry weather will exit
to the east and a couple days of dry northwesterly flow aloft will
prevail. While the airmass will be very dry in the low and mid
levels, there will be a band of high level moisture that could
produce some cirrus clouds that may minimally impact high and low
temperatures through Saturday. Otherwise the warmup will be
noteworthy, as Friday`s highs temps will reach the mid 60s in the
southern zones, but only the lower 50s in the far northwestern zones
where some impacts of a melting snowpack may still be occurring.

A weak front will slip through the area on Saturday and bring an
increase of clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. Otherwise the
return of moist southerly flow won`t occur until Sunday when low
clouds should overspread the region. There may be enough moisture
for a few showers by Sunday afternoon, but this probability will
be low and mainly east of I-35. Nonetheless despite the southerly
winds, high temps will be a little cooler than Saturday, generally
topping out in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Lows Sunday
night will struggle to fall much, and likely stall in the low 50s
due to the higher moisture and cloud cover. Rain chances will
increase Sunday night and into Monday as a shallow cold front
moves into the region, warm advection continues above the surface,
and southwesterly flow aloft strengthens. There will be enough
instability for a few storms, but this activity should not be
surface based and thus there is no severe weather threat.

TR.92

[WacoWx]

Mine went from 38 to 35. Great trend for an even COLDER rain. I'm gonna hold off on any excitement with this system.

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 032111
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
311 PM CST Mon Feb 3 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Broad areas of elevated light rain showers are drifting NE across
South-Central Texas this afternoon with rain gauges mainly reporting
only a trace or 0.01 inch. South winds of 15 to 25 mph have
contributed to a deeper layer of low level moisture and the evening
forecast period still looks to have enough moisture and instability
to support a few thunderstorms forming mainly west of I-35. The
rapid refresh models continue to suggest this deeper convection, but
have backed off of what was a more robust output for storms from the
early morning updates. With the canopy of mid clouds curbing daytime
heating potential, expect most of the activity to be showers with
only some short lived storms. Rainfall amounts are expected to be
mostly below 1/4 inch, as cell movement should be at least 30 knots.
Rain chances should taper off after midnight, with a mostly cloudy
morning keeping min temps in the 50s and lower 60s. Tuesday continues
to look like the warmest day of the week, although model confidence
is gaining on a faster FROPA late in the afternoon into the Hill
Country as forecast by the NAM model.

The model consensus continues to show rapid cooling overnight with a
potential for freezing temperatures along our northern county
warning area border by 12Z Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers
are expected to overrun the front, and model soundings from the NAM
suggest a cold layer sufficient to generate a few sleet pellets with
light freezing rain between 9Z and 12Z north of the Rocksprings and
Llano areas. With inherited warm ground temperatures prior to the
front, no ice accumulations are anticipated in the short-term
through Tuesday night. Post-frontal rainfall amounts should be
mainly in the 1/10-1/4 inch range through Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Strong north winds and much colder temperatures will prevail through
the day on Wednesday behind the cold front. We have trended the high
temperature forecast colder, weighted closer to the NAM12 and NAM
MOS guidance, which tends to do better with shallow, cold airmasses.
This will result in high temperatures Wednesday only in the 30s
across the Hill Country and 40s elsewhere. Wind chill values will be
in the upper teens to low 20s through the Hill Country Wednesday
morning and upper 20s to upper 30s elsewhere.

Forcing along the 850mb front, combined with upper level forcing in
the southwest flow aloft, will generate the best chances for
precipitation during the day on Wednesday across the Hill Country
into Central Texas. Using a top-down forecast approach, soundings
indicate mostly liquid falling during the day on Wednesday. However,
there may be enough cold air advection in the lowest 750 meters to
allow for some freezing into ice pellets across portions of the
northern Hill Country. Also, some locations across the northern Hill
Country may see surface air temperatures reach freezing Wednesday
morning and struggle to rise back above freezing during the day.
Ground temperatures are warm across the region, however can`t rule
out some isolated spots through the northern Hill Country where
bridges and overpasses see some very light freezing rain and sleet
accumulations on Wednesday. The remainder of the precipitation
across the area during the day on Wednesday should remain liquid

The big question, and lower confidence portions of the forecast,
continues to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the core
of the dynamical forcing in the base of the trough moves across the
region. The GFS and NAM12 continue to trend drier, as the 850mb
front clears the area and also an increasingly dry layer beneath
700mb is indicated on forecast soundings. GEFS plumes as well as
SREF plumes point to lower probabilities of precipitation across the
region, at less than 20%. The 12Z ECMWF and Canadian are still
indicating more QPF than the GFS and NAM12, across the eastern Hill
Country and along and east of I-35. We have trended PoPs into the
slight chance category for Wednesday night. With that said, and again
using a top- down approach, precipitation that does develop in the
base of the upper level trough does have the potential to fall as a
rain/freezing rain/sleet mix along and north of U.S. 90. There is a
lesser probability of flurries/light snow on the back side of any
precipitation axis ending west to east, across portions of the Hill
Country and Central Texas, as temperatures in the the ice crystal
initiation region of the cloud cool to sufficient levels. Again, this
is assuming any precipitation does develop and were to make it all
the way to the ground without evaporation or sublimation occurring.
At the current time impacts appear very minimal, given both the low
confidence of precipitation occurring and precip amounts remaining
light.

It is urged to pay close attention to the forecast over the next
24-36 hours as additional fluctuations are likely to the Wednesday
through Wednesday night time frame.

A hard freeze is forecast Wednesday night into Thursday morning
across the Hill Country, with a light freeze across portions of the
I-35 corridor. Clearing and warmer during the day on Thursday with
highs forecast to rebound into the mid 50s to mid 60s. The warming
trend continues into Friday, with highs back into the upper 60s to
mid 70s. A weak cold front is forecast to move through the area
Saturday with dry conditions over the weekend.

[Cerlin]

I would not be surprised to see CTX get more than DFW. I think I expect that from now on.

[Brent]

I would not be surprised to see CTX get more than DFW. I think I expect that from now on.

Pretty soon their climo will be better than ours

[bubba hotep]

Updated point for MBY in Collin County. I suspect that FWD is trying to decide between lifting a Winter Weather Advisory or expanding the Winter Storm Watch.

[Texas Snow]

Rick Mitchell NBC5DFW Just showed a total snowfall map that was all northwest of the metroplex and said he would be watching to see if it shifted any further east, but at this point he does not believe that it will.

I am begging for the opportunity to build a snowman in his front yard.

[Haris]

The fact of the matter is Dallas saw 10x more snow last decade than Austin.

[South Texas Storms]

The fact of the matter is Dallas saw 10x more snow last decade than Austin.

Yep but everyone seems to forget that.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Odd how closely the atx and fwd forecast discussions ran this afternoon. The nws stations have obviously been doing a lot of communication concerning this storm. Hell theyre more bullish on frozen precip for dfw than the forum is atm. Btw, Austin people, you get to live in Austin, so there is your plus side.....Houston folks.....well, I’m not sure what to say there

[WeatherNewbie]

The fact of the matter is Dallas saw 10x more snow last decade than Austin.

it's 250 miles farther north, so it... uh... should.

[Texas Snow]

The fact of the matter is Dallas saw 10x more snow last decade than Austin.

Yep but everyone seems to forget that.

That’s like Dallas complaining Oklahoma City gets more snow

[South Texas Storms]

The fact of the matter is Dallas saw 10x more snow last decade than Austin.

Yep but everyone seems to forget that.

That’s like Dallas complaining Oklahoma City gets more snow

Well yeah but the point is this thread has turned into too much complaining whenever Dallas doesn't get any snow. Like Joe Bastardi always says: "Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you got."