ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Based on radar, the eye looks like it's down to around 10 nm. I'm interested to see what diameter they report on the VDM.

When was the last pass through the center?

[GCANE]

Getting a 3mb dip in surface pressure inbound

[Michele B]

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

Gotta drive to Vero tomorrow for work. I'm afraid we're gonna run out of gas here before I get home tomorrow

Wal-Mart is VERY good about bringing in more supplies. I'm sure they are working to keep gas/water coming as long as they are able to places where it is needed.

[Michele B]

Have chased almost every hurricane for the past 20+ years. It's a long story not going to bore you lol.

Was within 2 miles of the eye of Michael last year in Panama City, FL. My first Cat 5 with gusts to 185mph.

Before flying I was a hurricane forecaster and I guess it's still in my blood. Parking lot garages are where I make my stand. Above the storm surge and the stairwells offer bulletproof protection. Afterwards I help those trapped and in need.

That being said Hurricane Dorian has my attention. My initial gut is we may see a Cat 5 on this one. There's nothing in the way of synoptics to stop this thing. It's too early to call but for me to get on here and post means the internal radar isn't liking what I'm seeing.

If it goes major I'll be heading from Houston into the gauntlet. If you guys are interested I'll post from the danger zone as I have done several times before.

Ready for the usual wise-cracks and naysayers lol. But have never had a problem and don't anticipate any this time. It's one heck of an adventure if you know what you're doing.

Prepare early in Florida. Within a day or so there won't be any supplies.

Thanks guys.

Chuck

Thank you for your expertise.

If you do come down, be careful! I know you know what you are doing, but it never hurts to be reminded!

[syfr]

I'm not trying to start something, and I know this is an offbeat question, but is there anybody on the board who still isn't buying the left turn that most models are predicting?

North Carolinians?


.

Only when I see it happening will I believe!

[Michele B]

This morning Jim Cantore made an interesting observation worth repeating now - he said Dorian has been favoring the right side of the cone and by my observation it seems to be doing that still, per the SJU radar that shows it on a 340 or 350 heading.

It's good news for Puerto Rico and I hope it will be good news for Florida too. I think too much stock is placed on the "robust ridge" - but many are forgetting the trough moving through the eastern states right now is robust, too, and is forecast to recurve Erin.

We have to remember Erin (and prior TD6) were in the same area for almost the past week - a trough carved in the atmosphere for that long just does not disappear overnight, and it will take time for the ridge to rebuild.

Jim might have really struck on the heart of the matter when it comes to Erin's track.

Some might recall the scene in "Hoosiers" when old Shooter had to fill in for the coach, and Shooter's observation that the other team was "picking [the basketball] low all night" - and that's what lead to their winning the game.

It's the same in a sense with Dorian - once something in motion sets a pattern usually it remains..

Not sure I'm totally following here.....

Are you saying it's more likely he's going to end up more north?

[Sanibel]

Flat edge developing on northern outer band on Puerto Rican long range doppler radar...Could be sign of contact with ridge?...

[1900hurricane]

Here's the 00Z from San Juan. Tropopause is a little lower than I thought. Maybe intense convection can push it up a little? Everything would probably have to be perfect to get in the vicinity of the HWRF solutions though.

[1900hurricane]

Based on radar, the eye looks like it's down to around 10 nm. I'm interested to see what diameter they report on the VDM.

When was the last pass through the center?

Mission 11 did recently, but did not transmit a VDM strangely enough. Mission 12 is about to make a center fix though.

[ozonepete]

Hey Ozonepete!! Yeah, GFS has been a.amazingly consistent so far in being accurate in being to the right of ithe projected forecast track points. It is making.me wonder jut a bit if the GFS could be onto something about its track reasoning in the next 4-5 days. Pete you share my thoughts on this?

Hey Jax! What the GFS is onto, or rather has, is a series of upgrades over the last couple of years that has made it much better at TC forecasting in tricky environments. It now is often on a par with or exceeds the euro in day 4 or 5. In a case like this the 4 and 5 day are so hard because it is really difficult to forecast how strong that STR will be and how it will be oriented. This TC has continuously been forecast too far west and south, and that means the models have not had a handle on how strong or shaped the STR to the north has been. It is also still very dificult to get ridge strength more than 3 days out unless we've had a persistence pattern; that persistent Atlantic ridge pattern broke about 5 days ago.That makes me doubt that the models are suddenly going to get a better handle on that ridge now, especially when the GFS and euro are both struggling with it on the extended forecasts. Are the models insisting that the ridge that's been there most of the summer will build back in due to persistence bias? Let's see what they say tomorow.
Anyway, it's turning out to be a classic case where you always prepare as if the 5 day forecast were correct but don't believe any forecast beyond the 3rd day. I would watch carefully from
Miami to North Carolina, but especially from Daytona to Charleston. That's my 2 cents.

well we are down to 72 hours come tomorrow morning.

If it doesn't stall, lol.

[Highteeld]

TXNT28 KNES 290028
TCSNTL

A. 05L (DORIAN)

B. 29/0001Z

C. 19.2N

D. 65.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A DG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED WITHIN MG RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 4.5, AN EADJ OF 0.0, AND A DT OF 4.5 WITH NO BANDING FEATURE
ADDED. THE MET IS 4.0 AND THE PT IS 4.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[northjaxpro]

Still does not seem to be following the forecast track. Looks to be moving more NNW than NW. While the usual forecasts do well with track and have trouble with intensity, this one has been difficult on both. Even now, as the intensity forecasts are consolidating and starting to work out better, this one has been a real problem with track and still is.

Hey Ozonepete!! Yeah, GFS has been a.amazingly consistent so far in being accurate in being to the right of ithe projected forecast track points. It is making.me wonder jut a bit if the GFS could be onto something about its track reasoning in the next 4-5 days. Pete you share my thoughts on this?

Hey Jax! What the GFS is onto, or rather has, is a series of upgrades over the last couple of years that has made it much better at TC forecasting in tricky environments. It now is often on a par with or exceeds the euro in day 4 or 5. In a case like this the 4 and 5 day are so hard because it is really difficult to forecast how strong that STR will be and how it will be oriented. This TC has continuously been forecast too far west and south, and that means the models have not had a handle on how strong or shaped the STR to the north has been. It is also still very dificult to get ridge strength more than 3 days out unless we've had a persistence pattern; that persistent Atlantic ridge pattern broke about 5 days ago.That makes me doubt that the models are suddenly going to get a better handle on that ridge now, especially when the GFS and euro are both struggling with it on the extended forecasts. Are the models insisting that the ridge that's been there most of the summer will build back in due to persistence bias? Let's see what they say tomorow.
Anyway, it's turning out to be a classic case where you always prepare as if the 5 day forecast were correct but don't believe any forecast beyond the 3rd day. I would watch carefully from
Miami to North Carolina, but especially from Daytona to Charleston. That's my 2 cents.

Yeah Pete that is sound reasoning from a fellow analyst. Yeah what you say makes good sense. I tell you what, if the GFS ends up getting this close to being righr with the potential north track
that would be REALLY something for the model for sure in this instance.
It would really show just how the improvements made to the model have made much better.forercasting, especially medium to long range (5-7 days out).God knows we need all the better in this business in forecasting.

[gulfcoastdave]

Question , I have been tied up with work and trying to play catch up on the system. I know we are days out from a possible landfall in Florida . What are the thoughts with system...does the system go into the gulf or turn and go up the east coast ?

Just asking for thoughts on this as I am trying to help my college age daughter plan

[KC7NEC]

Question , I have been tied up with work and trying to play catch up on the system. I know we are days out from a possible landfall in Florida . What are the thoughts with system...does the system go into the gulf or turn and go up the east coast ?

Just asking for thoughts on this as I am trying to help my college age daughter plan

The consensus is moving to a GoM but there is still enough uncertainty to place wagers on it.

[Steve]

Laughed at and with a bit, but not hated on. I actually agree with syfr. I'd believe it if I saw it, and I don't think that NC is out of the woods by any means though it's not seeming too likely it's going to get all the way up there. It's not going to be the only threat this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see you guys get some action in September. I don't even know what's driving the current pulse up with Erin and Dorian as the MJO isn't really that much of a factor at the moment.

[Michele B]

I find it interesting and maybe someone can help explain this to me. I’m looking at the wind speed probs and my area which is on the list as Ft. pierce seems to have the highest probability for ts and hurricane winds on the chart despite the predicted landfall being to our north a bit. This morning cocoa Bach was 2% higher than us. Why is that? I always thought the heavier winds would be in the NE quad.

Thx

I haven't seen anyone answer your question, but I haven't read all the pages yet, either, but let me just add this:

If I understand your question, the "wind speed probs" have been changing all day, as this storm has found it's own path. That may be why the numbers seem to change. It's only when it gets very close to landfall that anything will be totally settled. Until hurricane forecasting is a perfect science (NEVER!), I think there is still a lot of unknowns about what and why hurricanes do what they do.

[jasons2k]

and just like that eyw diameter is halved.. pressure should soon respond and winds will go up..

https://i.ibb.co/JdYkRhW/18.gif

Amazing . This time yesterday ppl were still debating its survival.

Yeah, it's like to opposite of Debby (2000). They Keys (for awhile) thought they were gonna get leveled when the GFDL showed a Cat 4. Then poof.

[eastcoastFL]

I find it interesting and maybe someone can help explain this to me. I’m looking at the wind speed probs and my area which is on the list as Ft. pierce seems to have the highest probability for ts and hurricane winds on the chart despite the predicted landfall being to our north a bit. This morning cocoa Bach was 2% higher than us. Why is that? I always thought the heavier winds would be in the NE quad.

Thx

I haven't seen anyone answer your question, but I haven't read all the pages yet, either, but let me just add this:

If I understand your question, the "wind speed probs" have been changing all day, as this storm has found it's own path. That may be why the numbers seem to change. It's only when it gets very close to landfall that anything will be totally settled. Until hurricane forecasting is a perfect science (NEVER!), I think there is still a lot of unknowns about what and why hurricanes do what they do.

Thank you. I was wondering why ft pierce still has the highest probabilities when the track shows landfall near melbourne

[Steve]

Question , I have been tied up with work and trying to play catch up on the system. I know we are days out from a possible landfall in Florida . What are the thoughts with system...does the system go into the gulf or turn and go up the east coast ?

Just asking for thoughts on this as I am trying to help my college age daughter plan

Not sure. Bastardi has it between 1947 and Frances I think so he's got like Mobile/Gulf Shores/Pensacola sort of in the crosshairs. Obviously that would be bad for you guys in Santa Rosa County - certainly worse closer to the coast. But you're in Milton, so you know how many pine trees there are. Cat 2/3 winds, even as gusts, snap some of them. It's going to come down to where Dorian crosses South Florida (assuming it does obviously) and at what trajectory. Is there a southwest dip and uh-oh, we're screwed or maybe over toward Morgan City? Or does it hook off more north or Northeast and fade heading out around PCB or something? I dont' know. If you split the difference, you have to think that anything from the LA/MS line over to like Destin could easily be a 2 and maybe even 50/50 a 3 depending on what's going on to its north, how much if any dry air is coming off land, and what the heading is.

It's all guesses now, but I think the best models are concentrating more toward SEFL which is really the main part of Eastern Florida that gets hit from the east anyway. If it did follow the GFS or NAVGEM's ideas, it crosses at a higher latitude and maybe gets into the gulf briefly or gets hung up around Perry/Cross City before moving out or raining out. Hard to plan a week out for sure.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radar from 10:02am AST to 8:49pm AST:



Larger: https://imgur.com/E7tiN8D
From: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/i ... A-N0Q-0-12