ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneFrances04]

Here is the current wind threat from the NWS in Miami. This shows the wind threat based off the current forecast, taking into account forecast error. Yellow indicates potential for winds 39 to 57 mph and orange represents potential for winds between 58 to 73 mph. I believe it's a tool intended for emergency planners to understand the most reasonable worst case scenario.

https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mfl#

For: Coastal Palm Beach County

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm-force winds are possible
somewhere within this area within the next 48 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- West Palm Beach
- Boca Raton
- Juno Beach
- Jupiter

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Tropical Storm
force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 30-40 mph with gusts to 60
mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: Saturday
morning until early Sunday morning

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY:
Potential for wind 58 to 73 mph
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent
strong tropical storm force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect life and property
should now be underway. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before
the wind becomes hazardous.

- Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat
as depicted on the left.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- https://www.weather.gov/mfl
- http://www.co-palm-beach.fl.us
- For storm information call 2-1-1

[chaser1]

This could be a long weekend for all of us. Should they have put up a Hurricane Watch for SE Florida since it's in the cone while forecast to be a hurricane? Or would that have created too much panic?

That’s a good question? Not even sure about the TS watch if based on the models 35-40 all you’ll get inland. Not sure what the thinking is at the NHC maybe at 11pm. Huge wind field though we will be on the weak side. I remember with Mathew a power storm just a few miles offshore and not even a breeze across mainland sfl.

Matthew was as quiet as a church mouse by me even though he was JUUUUUST off the coast. That right there tells all you need to know about missing a core of even a major on the western side. Not gonna see much of anything.

Twas the night before landfall and all through the house,
not a creature was stirring..... not even a mouse.

The duct tape was hung on the windows with care,
in hopes that Hurricane Isaias would soon be there.

Weather nerds were nestled all snug in their beds,
while visions of landfall danced in their heads

[Nimbus]

Most of the models were calling for a recurve hundreds of miles further east just a couple days ago..
I'm feeling more comfortable with the model consensus missing Florida except for TS winds.
Storm looks like it might be a Hurricane tomorrow though which might change some of the model parameters.
I'm assuming they are confident enough in the mid level shear forecast and ridge evolution that they aren't sending recon?

How much space should you leave around Plylox shutters 1/4"? Those gripper springs extend out about an inch on either side so it doesn't look like it makes much difference? For next year of course..

[cp79]

I guess I’m in the minority here but I don’t see this approaching Fla. as a hurricane. Too much shear and dry air is going to be waiting for it once it gets closer to the state. Conditions are not going to be nice for it. Watching the HWRF run, the dry air really sucks the energy out of this thing and they are usually the kings of pumping up a storm. I’m optimistic that this thing could struggle to hang on in 48 hours given the conditions. Right now conditions not bad but it won’t be that way come Saturday morning.

[GCANE]

Minimal frictional forcing here

[abajan]

Mark Sudduth's latest video.
(My apologies if it's been posted already.)

[aspen]

So...what happened to the recon scheduled for 5:40?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think I would be a little more concerned about this if I lived on the coast from VA to New England. This has the potential to race right up the coast as a hurricane. The water is warm enough to support a strong hurricane right up to Long Island. People in FL are used to the threat and are aware of what to do...the others...not as much, and nobody is talking about that scenario yet...some are starting to.

[Visioen]

Very deep convection with the west to east oriented band. Coastline effect?

[cainjamin]

Wow, Levi sounds pretty bullish about Isaias being a serious east coast threat in his video tonight. Depending on the placement of that upper jet, the Northeast could be in trouble. The trends for Florida are looking promising at least.

[tiger_deF]

Is it just me or has land interaction with Hispaniola slowed him down somewhat

[chaser1]

I think I would be a little more concerned about this if I lived on the coast from VA to New England. This has the potential to race right up the coast as a hurricane. The water is warm enough to support a strong hurricane right up to Long Island. People in FL are used to the threat and are aware of what to do...the others...not as much, and nobody is talking about that scenario yet...some are starting to.

Yes, actually from coastal North & South Carolina northward to New England. Timing will dictate track but this storm could well be a hurricane all the way up the coastline. If that shortwave energy pulls up and high pressure builds in strong, all bets are off up there and coastal residents and visitors need to keep an eye on this.

[Aric Dunn]

If there is an llc under that MLC.. it is just about back offshore.. maybe another hours or so.. pretty decently ahead of all the models.

[supercane4867]

The burst of heavy convection is causing some serious flooding in DR.

 https://twitter.com/StoDomingoNews/status/1288981135012311041

[Kazmit]

So...what happened to the recon scheduled for 5:40?

I second this. Some recon in this would be really nice right now to see if an LLC has formed.

[Weatherboy1]

Very deep convection with the west to east oriented band. Coastline effect?

https://i.imgur.com/apAjUVK.jpg

That’s exactly what I was referring to earlier. 8 pm advisory puta center roughly there too - 19.9 and 71.2.

[aspen]

So...what happened to the recon scheduled for 5:40?

I second this. Some recon in this would be really nice right now to see if an LLC has formed.

I guess they’re waiting for the MLC to emerge over open waters, which it only just has. Is there a flight scheduled for tonight?

[TheDreamTraveler]

I think I would be a little more concerned about this if I lived on the coast from VA to New England. This has the potential to race right up the coast as a hurricane. The water is warm enough to support a strong hurricane right up to Long Island. People in FL are used to the threat and are aware of what to do...the others...not as much, and nobody is talking about that scenario yet...some are starting to.

You're right. I know most of the users here are from Florida so there's a bit of a bias but I don't think New England has had a landfalling hurricane since Bob in 1991. That's almost 30 years so a lot of people are definitely not prepared depending how strong this is once it reaches there. GFS, Euro etc have been showing this flying up the coast for a while

[DestinHurricane]

Considering how far ahead it is of models and NHC track right now, a FL landfall is not completely off the table yet. If the llc forms under that mlc then it will also be south of guidance and moving west. Please do not call an all clear for Florida.

[Nimbus]

So...what happened to the recon scheduled for 5:40?

I second this. Some recon in this would be really nice right now to see if an LLC has formed.

I guess they’re waiting for the MLC to emerge over open waters, which it only just has. Is there a flight scheduled for tonight?

There are about six flights scheduled for Friday and Saturday once the center is clearly back out over water.
Some of the local observation stations had west winds and surface pressures near 997 MB so its ahead of the models as ARIC said.