ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

Seems like SFL will be entering the 3 day cone.

Yup I need to learn to keep my mouth shut lol...

[ConvergenceZone]

Shouldn't we all be happy if it turns out to be a complete dud. This season, the big storms are beyond the tropics.

You are right, we should, but I think sometimes it's easy for us to
be selfish when one invests so much time on the board to follow a storm only to
have it go poof....It's too early to say if Isaac is going to go poof yet, but
it's very possible it might......

[cycloneye]

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like they aren't ready to let S. FL let their guard down but they cite the HWRF and CMC as leaving uncertainty...not exactly models I consider reliable. If the GFS nudges more westward at 18z I'd expect a more significant shift at 11pm.

[GeneratorPower]

With all due respect, the NHC's 5pm advisory says it's far from going "poof".

[sunnyday]

The following statements are only my opinion. Check with the NHC or NWS for accurate info....

I definitely vote for poof, dud, etc. I haven't seen a storm of this size not be able to get its act together (not that I remember). Does anyone feel the same?
We can call him Isaac Poof. Has a nice ring to it!

[Ikester]

Monroe County, FL (Keys) have closed schools on Monday.

[jlauderdal]

Seems like SFL will be entering the 3 day cone.

Yup I need to learn to keep my mouth shut lol...

kids on the east coast of Florida becoming increasingly frustrated with this move to the west

[KWT]

new track just came out on our system. Basically an update of the old track. Perhaps a hair to the west---and I do mean a hair. Closing in on landfall near Destin at 8pm Tuesday.

If the southern area takes charge, then the NHC are going to require a rather sizeable shift to the west in the short term, for now it looks ok to me, but we are playing blind here with regards to where the center is.

[meriland23]

That new track is teetering pretty heavily. Obviously taking baby steps to the left, any more and it could be out of W hispanola and E Cuba, where the mountainous terrain is. That would make for some storm in the gulf :S

[tropicwatch]

Well HH is finding more winds above minimal TS strength some in the 50's. Looks like Isaac is attempting to get its act together.

[jlauderdal]

With all due respect, the NHC's 5pm advisory says it's far from going "poof".

they actually talk about RI

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from discussion.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE
CYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. WHILE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS IT...ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY
ABOUT THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL IN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24-36 HR.
AFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND THE CURRENT 120 HR INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE
IF THE GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS VERIFY. THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS
STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

[meriland23]

The following statements are only my opinion. Check with the NHC or NWS for accurate info....

I definitely vote for poof, dud, etc. I haven't seen a storm of this size not be able to get its act together (not that I remember). Does anyone feel the same?
We can call him Isaac Poof. Has a nice ring to it!

Size matters nill when you have a practically stationary system over hot waters..

[Bocadude85]

Seems like SFL will be entering the 3 day cone.

Yup I need to learn to keep my mouth shut lol...

kids on the east coast of Florida becoming increasingly frustrated with this move to the west

lol yea though I would think if Isaac follows the current NHC track then South Florida should go under a TS warning.. do they close schools for a TS warning?

[ConvergenceZone]

That new track is teetering pretty heavily. Obviously taking baby steps to the left, any more and it could be out of W hispanola and E Cuba, where the mountainous terrain is. That would make for some storm in the gulf :S

You make a good point. If this storm stays very weak and doesn't develop or even weakens further, and doesn't touch the islands, it POTENTIALLY could mean bad news for a strengthening storm in the gulf, but course that's a BIG "if"....

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Heard recon found winds of 50mph(I assume it was mph) upgrade at 8?

[SouthDadeFish]

Check out data at this buoy:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 210 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 36.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 9.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.3 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.5 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 33.0 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 35.0 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[Jevo]

I see some people saying that they are frustrated by this storm. To me this is why I'm here, I love the uncertainty, the different model output every 6 hours, and the chance to take a swing at my own forecast in the midst of such uncertainty. if it were easy, we wouldn't need pros

With that said, I don't know how many of you use Twitter, but there is a lot of good information coming out of there right now by the NHC, NOAA, HRD, and other sources such as Jim Cantore and Brian Norcross. These are recent tweets from the Hashtag #isaac

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
@NHCDirector When model runs reflect G-IV data? Data will get into 00Z (8 pm ET) runs, used for 5 am advisory.

Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Would not be surprised to see the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and even parts of LA including New Orleans in the new cone from NHC.

Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Some FL chances of tropical storm force next 5 days: Key West 39% Miami 33% Tampa 24% Cocoa Beach 18% http://ow.ly/1Osl7i #Isaac

NWS Miami ‏@NWSMiami
Don't focus too much on exact forecast track this far out. Average errors in extended range well over 100 miles!

[psyclone]

we've seen many storms struggle and look awful for long periods of time and then all of a sudden a switch turns on and they go nuts. i wouldn't be surprised if that happens at some point with Isaac and it rapidly intensifies. Never turn your back on a storm during the heart of hurricane season. and since we're near the anniversary of Andrew, it's worth remembering that that storm struggled and its survival for a time appeared doubtful.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.