ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ROCK]

^Agree 100%

I would have said 99% and left you an out...just sayin....

[KWT]

Doesn't shift much from its WNW motion throughout, the weakness doesn't really lift it out at all, first run I've seen where the system just keeps on trundling WNW.

Not going to be far from Texas this run...MUCH further west!

[deltadog03]

I still think the euro is too far W, but its been consistent... We shall see....



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[SunnyThoughts]

wow, big shift west. Just when you think there is a consensus building..bammm..not so fast everybody. This info being gathered by gulfstream-4 is going to be SO valuable in the coming runs of these models.

[Dean4Storms]

This ECMWF run is very strange, how can the weakness get that far west?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The first Euro run with the G-IV data won't be until tonight, right? It will be that next run that will be telling.

[Aric Dunn]

landfall almost LA/tx border. now the euro is really out in left field compared to the other models. something is odd. Also looks about 90kts at landfall.

[adam0983]

This is Madness the Euro Model just created it own path and is heading straight to New Orleans. This would be horrible Situation. I don't believe any model at this time. We have GFDL Model and HWRF Model showing landfall on the east coast florida. We have the GFS Model on the west coast of Florida. We need to get more data things are getting scary out there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Shreveport...With NOLA on the dirty side. A very interesting run to say the least. I think the next 48 hours and the land interaction with Cuba and Haiti is crucial. Where the new center decides to reform after disruption will be key to the eventual track and intensity.

SFT

[ROCK]

[quote="deltadog03"]I still think the euro is too far W, but its been consistent... We shall see....


thats close enough to Texas for ya WX Warrior......

[jeff]

I'm curious as to what the models are seeing that I'm missing. This trough that has been camped out over North/Central FLA and the Gulf does not seem to want to budge. The flow for us here on East/Central FLA has been from SW to NE over the past 4-5 days which tells me that high pressure is not in charge here and is pushed off to the East. Maybe it will change but it looks like we are going to get storms again today moving from SW to NE.

SFT

You have to look upstream at the flow over the US and NW Pacific out in time, not what it is now. The culprit appears to be the strong shortwave off the NW US coast early next week which pumps up the southern plains ridge digging a downstream SE US trough. A flatter shortwave equalls less southern plains ridging and less SE US troughing allowing the weakness to fill. A stronger shortwave has the opposite effect. Bad news is that this area (Pacific) tends to give modeling troubles as it is un-sampled to a large degree. The key will be in the timing of Isaac and the timing/intensity of the short waves moving into the NW/N US and their effect on the downstream ridge over the southern plains. What continues to be worrying is the lack of a strong recurve and trough capture pattern in the models...minus the GFS. The rest tend to drive Isaac NW and inland more like rounding the west side of the ridge instead of being picked up by a trough. That may suugest they are seeing the ridging closing up the weakness, but their timing of Isaac is fast enough or far enough north to bring it northward/or their pattern amplification is greater.

[Jevo]

I would say the GFS has been pretty consistent as well.. nothing more than east or west by +/- 50 miles each run at 2nd landfall and 1st landfall has consistently been FL Keys for 3/4 days now

[SunnyThoughts]

The first Euro run with the G-IV data won't be until tonight, right? It will be that next run that will be telling.

From what I read, that is correct. Tonights 0z models should have the info ingested from todays flight/flights.

[Jagno]

12z ECMWF (Euro) +168

I really try hard not to focus on the models until the system has developed with a well defined center but this still makes me nervous when they show it directly over my house. The best part is usually they are not very accurate this far out and I pray that trend continues.

[Wx_Warrior]

Im the huggers of all EURO huggers. If this particular run pans, I'd be a tad puzzled. Too far west IMO.

Just have to wait for recon data.

[BigB0882]

This is Madness the Euro Model just created it own path and is heading straight to New Orleans. This would be horrible Situation.

It went into SW LA. Did you even look at the final landfall?

[KWT]

ECM is so far left of field its almost not real, thats really far west of where the other models are, its in agreement till 48hrs then it just seems to trundle WNW...for the next 5 days!

[jeff]

I would say the GFS has been pretty consistent as well.. nothing more than east or west by +/- 50 miles each run at 2nd landfall and 1st landfall has consistently been FL Keys for 3/4 days now

Indeed it has been and it has done very well this season with track and intensity. It is not bouncing around as much as in the past and not as much as the ECMWF

[Weatherboy1]

Just wondering out loud why some models, like the EURO at the extreme, but even the UKMET and GFS to a little extend in the most recent run, don't see Isaac just heading up into the clear ridge weakness sooner? The base of the trough on water vapor imagery looks to have dug all the way down to 23N-25N. That's pretty darn deep, no? Why wouldn't it be enough to "scoop" Isaac to the NW and then N? Or is the idea he's going to move too slow, miss the connection and get left behind, then a ridge will build over top and shunt him back W into the Gulf?

[deltadog03]

I think I can see what the EURO and GFS are doing. Its in that 2-3 day time frame....Look on the euro how there is almost a closed isobar over Eastern Cuba and one near Jamaica. I think the EURO is making more of that cir., down near Jamaica instead of keeping with that other cir over E Cuba....