ATL: ALBERTO - Post-Tropical

[chaser1]

I would go with 55 kt and issue a Hurricane Watch for a small part of the coast around Panama City.

Makes total sense. In fact I don't see how/why NHC wouldn't raise a H-Watch with 60 mph flight level winds. Not unless there were signs of increasing shear. If for no other reason then the potential for a small upward adjustment to storm surge impact conditions

[CrazyC83]

Needs to become tropical before it can become a hurricane. This could hit 75mph and would still be considered a subtropical storm.

Technically yes. But 75 mph wind impacts either way would be the same whether tropical, subtropical or post-tropical. I'd still put hurricane-level warnings or watches if that was the forecast. Warning if the forecast is for 65 kt; watch if for 55-60 kt (certainly 60 kt).

[cycloneye]

CrazyC83,,can you continue posting the data?

[pcolaman]

The thing that gets me is 12 mph to the nw. So that will move landfall to the west unless it turns hard to the north.So possible hurricane at landfall now with little time for evacuations from the coast.

[Dean4Storms]

I won't get that beer either from somebody who said it was dead.

[DestinHurricane]

I would go with 55 kt and issue a Hurricane Watch for a small part of the coast around Panama City.

Makes total sense. In fact I don't see how/why NHC wouldn't raise a H-Watch with 60 mph flight level winds. Not unless there were signs of increasing shear. If for no other reason then the potential for a small upward adjustment to storm surge impact conditions

they probably will in the special advisory

[psyclone]

Needs to become tropical before it can become a hurricane. This could hit 75mph and would still be considered a subtropical storm.

Technically yes. But 75 mph wind impacts either way would be the same whether tropical, subtropical or post-tropical. I'd still put hurricane-level warnings or watches if that was the forecast. Warning if the forecast is for 65 kt; watch if for 55-60 kt (certainly 60 kt).

No doubt. WFOs issue hurricane force wind warnings for mid latitude events up north when 65kt+ winds are expected.

[galaxy401]

Wow what a change of display in the last 12 hours. Strongest May storm since Beryl 2012. Wonder how close it is to being tropical now.

[stormhunter7]

I won't get that beer either from somebody who said it was dead.

Hmm.... :lol::lol::lol:

[Dean4Storms]

I would go with 55 kt and issue a Hurricane Watch for a small part of the coast around Panama City.

Makes total sense. In fact I don't see how/why NHC wouldn't raise a H-Watch with 60 mph flight level winds. Not unless there were signs of increasing shear. If for no other reason then the potential for a small upward adjustment to storm surge impact conditions

They'll have to go with a Warning if they see the potential wouldn't they?

[cycloneye]

Subtropical Storm Alberto Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018
700 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018

..ALBERTO STRONGER...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that Alberto has strengthened and the maximum
sustained winds are now 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. A special advisory will be issued within the hour.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 85.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[PSUHiker31]

They might wait for another recon pass before the special advisory

[DestinHurricane]

At 4pm advisory it was 50 mph and now, 3 hours later it is 65mph so in 3 hours it could be cat 1?

[CrazyC83]

I would go with 55 kt and issue a Hurricane Watch for a small part of the coast around Panama City.

Makes total sense. In fact I don't see how/why NHC wouldn't raise a H-Watch with 60 mph flight level winds. Not unless there were signs of increasing shear. If for no other reason then the potential for a small upward adjustment to storm surge impact conditions

They'll have to go with a Warning if they see the potential wouldn't they?

If they actually forecast a hurricane they would go with a warning. I'm not sure if they will go all the way up to 65 kt for landfall intensity though.

[Ian2401]

At 4pm advisory it was 50 mph and now, 3 hours later it is 65mph so in 3 hours it could be cat 1?

That is assuming that its strengthening is linear, which with weather systems, it is almost never that neat

[jdjaguar]

The thing that gets me is 12 mph to the nw. So that will move landfall to the west unless it turns hard to the north.So possible hurricane at landfall now with little time for evacuations from the coast.

Normally one does not need to evacuate for Cat 1/2
Storm surge estimates are my critical deciding factorand or CAT 3 classification

[DestinHurricane]

Even if it became cat 1, northern gulf storms often weaken just before landfall.

[AdamFirst]

Have had consistently heavy bands blowing through here since the early afternoon. Some minor ponding on the roadways as I was heading home from work. Got more on the way down in the Keys and over the Everglades.

[caneman]

Funny thing is storms can strengthen with shallow convection. After jeanne in 2005 did the loop convection was very shallow but a inner core developed regardless. Then later on the convection deepened

Well I was wrong but it is crappy looking on radar and satellite. Move along Alberto. Nice little pre season warning across the bow

[galaxy401]

I assume this storm has been steadily strengthening since the morning. These west shifts are important.