ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[MJGarrison]

Euro 12Z running. Slightly weaker and slightly faster after 12 hours (compared to 06Z)


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[DestinHurricane]

Slight SE shift at hour 24 when compared to 00Z.

[gatorcane]

Strangely the GFS is now a bit more west of the Euro at 24 hours. But we are splitting hairs here.

[DestinHurricane]

Strangely the GFS is now a bit more west of the Euro at 24 hours. But we are splitting hairs here.

Considering where it is now both of them will probably end up being too far east.

[NDG]

Slightly stronger and a little more to the right compared to last night's 0z run.

[NDG]

At 18z tomorrow about 5 miles more west than on last night's run.

[NDG]

And then it takes a jog to the north, lol.

[NDG]

Then a jog to the NW making landfall in Cape Canaveral, lol.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro initialized to far SE. Pretty clear the position Isaias is in now after this persistent WNW movement and its likely to landfall in FL. The question is all the deep convection is far removed and can new convection build between Andros and FL to maintain Hurricane status? My guess is NHC may start backing down intensity at 5pm. JMHO

[MJGarrison]

Yea, it takes an odd jog to the north then into the cape.


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[NDG]

[sma10]

Yea, it takes an odd jog to the north then into the cape.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200801/e143dc916f614536c59e2b2fdac65da1.gif


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Well first benchmark for Euro is it takes the storm to the right of Bimini - we'll be able to quality check that pretty soon

[ronjon]

12z HWRF simulated IR looks to bring some nasty weather to the SEFL Coast on up towards the Space Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80112&fh=9

Look what the HWRF does on the simulated IR between hours 6 and 12. Does anyone believe that?

[Ken711]

Any change on intensity with the latest Euro run so far?

[toad strangler]

Then a jog to the NW making landfall in Cape Canaveral, lol.

It's doing the Matthew shuffle

[ocala]

Then a jog to the NW making landfall in Cape Canaveral, lol.

It's doing the Matthew shuffle

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z TCVN now shows landfall near PBC/Martin

[NDG]

18z TVCN

[Steve]

18z TCVN now shows landfall near PBC/Martin

HRRR is also moving closest to the coast so far on its 18z run.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 80118&fh=0

[Steve]

And boom. Mostly offshore, but HRRR pulses this twice in the next 15 hours. It's got a burst west toward the coast then looking bad then blowing up. Most heaviest convection is offshore, but right along the Coast should easily get some TS conditions out of this.