ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[ROCK]

really weak this run after 48hr......

[Ivanhater]

Word is...00z Euro showing the disturbance over Jamaica at 84 hours...this should be interesting,

[ROCK]

Word is...00z Euro showing the disturbance over Jamaica at 84 hours...this should be interesting,

you and your secret sources.... here is the 72hr....not much to look at....weak

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

[TwisterFanatic]

the 850MB vorticity is still kind of elongated.

[Ivanhater]

Word is...00z Euro showing the disturbance over Jamaica at 84 hours...this should be interesting,

you and your secret sources.... here is the 72hr....not much to look at....weak

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif

00z Euro does not do much with this system this run...confusion continues.

[ROCK]

[quote="TwisterFanatic"]the 850MB vorticity is still kind of elongated.


the EURO might be on to something in the model thread.....

[SeminoleWind]

120hrs

[dwsqos2]

01/0545 UTC 14.4N 55.6W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

It actually "looks" better tonight.

[ROCK]

96hr Hispa has done its thing....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif

[SouthFLTropics]

IMO I think the southern side of the system is having trouble getting stacked because it appears that the westerlies are screaming through the ITCZ. Once it gets further away from that I think it will take stack all its quadrants and take off. Outflow to the NW looks decent but below it there just isn't a channel yet.

SFT

[ROCK]

that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....

[Evil Jeremy]

the 850MB vorticity is still kind of elongated.

It's much better than before. I think 6 hours ago, there were still two competing vorticies (east one was stronger though). Now its consolidating.

01/0545 UTC 14.4N 55.6W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

It actually "looks" better tonight.

Aren't those TD level numbers?

[Evil Jeremy]

that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....

120 out, heading to SFL:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[ROCK]

that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....

120 out, heading to SFL:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

right in line with the CMC, NOGAPS...hmmm....

[SeminoleWind]

that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....

posted went away now its back, weird.

[Ivanhater]

MUCH stronger ridging on the 00z Euro

[WeatherEmperor]

The new 00Z Euro brings a weak system close to SFla. I can't make out the strength. Moderate TS perhaps??

[SouthFLTropics]

What kind of strength are we looking at here?

[dwsqos2]

T2.0 would usually correspond to TD strength; however, there is still question about the definition of the surface circulation.

I really think this is going to have shear issues down the road; the anticyclone on the gfs looks small. Too far north or too far south and the storm will get smacked around by either upper-level westerlies or easterlies.

I am also getting tired of the designation "future Emily." It's really starting to remind me of pre-Fiona. I am going to laugh if this ends up being totally insignificant, and the Euro suggests that possibility; actually the gfs is weak too.

And, yes, yes, I know rain/flooding issues. But a tropical cyclone wouldn't even have to exist to cause those problems. So, when I say insignificant, I am referring to its intensity as a tropical cyclone not impact.

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[SeminoleWind]

144 is out