ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ROCK]

174hr is at TX LA border

[meriland23]

The first Euro run with the G-IV data won't be until tonight, right? It will be that next run that will be telling.

From what I read, that is correct. Tonights 0z models should have the info ingested from todays flight/flights.

but wont the G-IV data take time to digest and change models? They collect data for 0z run like at 8 or 9 pm.. don't think they will have it changed according to until 12z tomorrow.

[LaBreeze]

I hear you Jagno! Not liking this run for sure.

[PTrackerLA]

This is crazy. SE Texas to Florida now in play IMO.

[uhvjaguars22]

Yes i wouldnt be suprised if the euro did this just to make sure everyone is paying attention from mexico to florida. i called the galveston to new orleans landfall a while back but this shows you that this far out still early in the ball game

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigB0882]

What I take from this is a westward shift in both the GFS and Euro. That is all, at this point.

[deltadog03]

I think I can see what the EURO and GFS are doing. Its in that 2-3 day time frame....Look on the euro how there is almost a closed isobar over Eastern Cuba and one near Jamaica. I think the EURO is making more of that cir., down near Jamaica instead of keeping with that other cir over E Cuba....

[meriland23]

this is the furthest west I have seen the Euro take this system to.. and the strongest..

[wxman76]

Well the GFS and Euro have been consistent for sure. i am not surprised by the Euro shift west though. 00z was east but most of it's ensembles were west of the operational. I won't say the Euro is right but I can see it happening. It isn't totally in left field, especially if Isaac continues to be stubborn to move poleward and organize as it has been the last couple of days.

[SunnyThoughts]

The first Euro run with the G-IV data won't be until tonight, right? It will be that next run that will be telling.

From what I read, that is correct. Tonights 0z models should have the info ingested from todays flight/flights.

but wont the G-IV data take time to digest and change models? They collect data for 0z run like at 8 or 9 pm.. don't think they will have it changed according to until 12z tomorrow.

Not exactly sure Meriland, but I do know that the Gulfstream flight is in the air now..and expected to be finished in like 3 hours...so maybe that gives enough time to input into the model for 0z tonight? Just going by what I read earlier from others that tonight's 0z should have the info ingested.

[Jevo]

12z ECMWF (Euro) +192



(1000th Post!!)

[uhvjaguars22]

Plus the gfs from last week is looking good too a hurricane in texas at end of august

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Guys at nhc must be pulling their hair out. Just when it looked as if there was pretty good consensus with the.models of a panhandle /big bend track the euro says not so fast and wants to destroy grand isle and port fourchon. Gotta love it.

[LaBreeze]

This is crazy. SE Texas to Florida now in play IMO.

How do you like that one PTrackerLA?

[Tireman4]

Still WAY early in the game. I am still thinking Friday or Saturday before I bite on any solutions.....I do believe ( and I know nothing) this gives all of us pause to think of our preparations ( to be mindful, not do it yet) for anything.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[meriland23]

My mom was watching fox news and when they started talking about Isaac she was like "pff, what a dud, don't know why they are even paying attention to this, they said it right there.. only a category 1" I was like "there is a big toss up, could be a cat 3" she was like " yeah, right.. you know everything Sarah.. these are professionals, not you" LMFAO

[Ntxw]

Jeff said it very well. The changes in features up in the Pacific NW have huge implications on connections. Euro is trying to paint a Rita pattern while GFS says no.

[KWT]

this is the furthest west I have seen the Euro take this system to.. and the strongest..

Sure is the furtherst west solution yet, not sure its the strongest, but given its so close to the Caribbean sea by 72hrs wouldn't take much for it to actually get its feet wet again so to speak.

[ROCK]

some of this has got to do with that death ridge that has been baking the plains....and that the short wave is flatter than before...but I will let a MET here explain.....you get the Georgia high building in, providing the steering, it could very well get this far west.

Of course we dont really have a center, we dont know what land is going to do to it and we have no idea what day it is because some of us have been up for the EURO until 3am for 3 days straight.....

[Kingarabian]

My mom was watching fox news and when they started talking about Isaac she was like "pff, what a dud, don't know why they are even paying attention to this, they said it right there.. only a category 1" I was like "there is a big toss up, could be a cat 3" she was like " yeah, right.. you know everything Sarah.. these are professionals, not you" LMFAO

Yeah I think Fox news get's their information from the NHC who are not showing major intensification right now.