ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

No way Erika will follow the NHC's forecast points. Looks like she is moving due west. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[wzrgirl1]

I truly wonder if watches will come on at 5pm for SFL. It of course causes the domino effect with schools/businesses following the closure of schools, etc.

If the forecast stays the same there will most likely be.

[JPmia]

I truly wonder if watches will come on at 5pm for SFL. It of course causes the domino effect with schools/businesses following the closure of schools, etc.

If the forecast stays the same there will most likely be.

Yeah nothing wrong with putting up watches. It is the warnings that would close schools, work, etc.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder now if Erika might stay south of Hispaniola altogether...how conducive to intensification is it in the Cayman Trench?

[Aric Dunn]

its quite likely that the westerly motion at this time is partially due to oragraphic forcing.

[tropicwatch]

its quite likely that the westerly motion at this time is partially due to oragraphic forcing.

[fci]

I truly wonder if watches will come on at 5pm for SFL. It of course causes the domino effect with schools/businesses following the closure of schools, etc.

If there are any issued at 5:00 and truly I would be shocked if they did; closure of schools for Monday would be totally ridiculous until Erika emerges from Hispanola IF it does.

[emeraldislenc]

If the center were to reform on the north coast of Haiti/DR what direction would it possibly move in?

[fci]

My local meteorologist said that once it emerges north of Cuba/Hispaniola, it will be in a low shear environment and water near 90 degrees. So what do you think will happen next?

That was the thinking of 2 days ago, also called media hype, by pushing the old advisory, even though the situation has changed...

So your feeling is that the water temperature is NOT 90 and it is NOT a low shear environment north of Cuba and Hispanola?
Can You share the charts that show that?
I don't see that as "media hype".

[AutoPenalti]

its quite likely that the westerly motion at this time is partially due to oragraphic forcing.

What's that?

[ronjon]

lol... not sure what to think of this thing.. or if I would even classify it at the moment.. but the energy can survive it might have a chance to come back. I think the energy moving north of DR has the better shot of redeveloping.. if at all

Yeah Aric I can think of lots of examples where energy seemingly "jumped" across the isalnd to the north side and a COC developed. People writing this system off I'm sure are not thinking this way.

[BucMan2]

Aric- I don't care what that means -its a great word even if its a little nebulous:)

[CrazyC83]

I truly wonder if watches will come on at 5pm for SFL. It of course causes the domino effect with schools/businesses following the closure of schools, etc.

If there are any issued at 5:00 and truly I would be shocked if they did; closure of schools for Monday would be totally ridiculous until Erika emerges from Hispanola IF it does.

I would definitely hold off on any watches for Florida at this time. I'd put warnings up for easternmost Cuba, more watches in Cuba and a TS Watch for Jamaica however.

[Aric Dunn]

its quite likely that the westerly motion at this time is partially due to oragraphic forcing.

think of it as water rushing ... when it runs into something it cant go up and over it has to go around... in this case the mountains the low level flow is pushing up against the mountains but is having a hard time going over so it gets pushed back and around..

[tropicwatch]

its quite likely that the westerly motion at this time is partially due to oragraphic forcing.

We don't have any mountains in Florida so I had to look it up.

Except "Space Mountain"

[tgenius]

I truly wonder if watches will come on at 5pm for SFL. It of course causes the domino effect with schools/businesses following the closure of schools, etc.

If there are any issued at 5:00 and truly I would be shocked if they did; closure of schools for Monday would be totally ridiculous until Erika emerges from Hispanola IF it does.

I agree totally, however they sometimes err on side of caution. I'm more concerned because at work we try to mimic the school system. It may come down to the possibility of Trop Storm force winds which would halt the buses from running monday in essence cancelling school for the day. It's a domino effect.

[Aric Dunn]

its quite likely that the westerly motion at this time is partially due to oragraphic forcing.

We don't have any mountains in Florida so I had to look it up.

I spelled it wrong ...

[fci]

The way Mayfield makes it sound (and he definately would know), NHC is basically passing the buck for another 12 or so hours.

Jeremy, that makes sense since there is almost complete uncertainty about what's going to come out the other side and where whatever it is comes out at.

[galaxy401]

It almost seems like Erika's "center" is purposely trying to maneuver around the islands without making landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

It almost seems like Erika's "center" is purposely trying to maneuver around the islands without making landfall.

thats what I was explaining on the previous page