Texas Winter 2017-2018

[stormlover2013]

Wouldn’t bet on it, looking like next Monday,Tuesday, or wed.

[starsfan65]

Wouldn’t bet on it, looking like next Monday,Tuesday, or wed.

There will be shift in the models.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah, I think we see a shift in the models tonight. I’m betting on the Christmas storm right now.

Noooo you jinxed it!

[Brent]

Yeah, I think we see a shift in the models tonight. I’m betting on the Christmas storm right now.

Noooo you jinxed it!

Lol

I noticed on my facebook memories this day last year the gfs was predicting a foot of snow just west of fort worth on Christmas

That was so way far off lol

Maybe its better its not showing snow

[ronyan]

We may need a 'model memories' site or such to remind us what was going on with the models previously. It's really a lot to remember given all the variations and things that don't occur.

[missygirl810]

How often do the models run?

[starsfan65]

How often do the models run?

GFS every 6 hours, Euro every 12 hours

[missygirl810]

How often do the models run?

GFS every 6 hours, Euro every 12 hours

Thank you!!!

[starsfan65]

How often do the models run?

GFS every 6 hours, Euro every 12 hours

Thank you!!!

No problem

[dhweather]

I'd like to see NOAA refine the resolution of GFS and cut back to two runs a day, like the ECMWF, and try that for while.


I'll be Debbie Downer here - it's not doing anything for Christmas, other than getting cold.

[iorange55]

I'd like to see NOAA refine the resolution of GFS and cut back to two runs a day, like the ECMWF, and try that for while.


I'll be Debbie Downer here - it's not doing anything for Christmas, other than getting cold.

Maybe not at your house

[snowballzzz]

Aren't we in that notorious mid-range that seems to lose track of everything?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Aren't we in that notorious mid-range that seems to lose track of everything?

Yes

[dhweather]

Aren't we in that notorious mid-range that seems to lose track of everything?

Honestly, yes.

My concern is the artic air will be so dry, we won't get any precip. If it's gonna be that cold, it may as well snow.

[Brent]

Aren't we in that notorious mid-range that seems to lose track of everything?

Honestly, yes.

My concern is the artic air will be so dry, we won't get any precip. If it's gonna be that cold, it may as well snow.

Yeah im definitely concerned it could be cold and dry... That to me is how we screwed out of this pattern... If the arctic air is just too extreme much like most of 1983 or 1989. The gfs and euro both are notorious for being too warm. I'd rather take my chances on more. borderline cold temps

[MississippiWx]

The strength of the incoming high pressure does not bode well for overrunning events. If it ends up being as strong as the models say, it will blow everything out into the Gulf quickly. Still plenty of time to change.

[South Texas Storms]

Like bubba mentioned earlier, the models have really been struggling in the medium range lately. Just 5 days ago, not many models had us getting rain yesterday and tomorrow into Tuesday.

I suspect many more model changes are ahead regarding the upcoming pattern over the next 10 days. Cold air seems likely, but confidence in any precip remains quite low.

[Ntxw]

-SOI crash has really bode well for rain. -20 today daily which is pretty down there in Nino territory

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pro Mets, saw the MJO forecast and it's now expected to move back into its non-existent state. Is this the reason for the trough not digging as deep into the southern plains? Will it not digging as far, this leaves the SE ridge able to flex its muscles.

Any thoughts?

[spencer817]

Is that a split and a tilt I see on the GFS hour 96???

Never mind my imgination