Texas Winter 2023-2024

[gpsnowman]

For the football watchers the Chiefs Dolphins game is going to be incredibly cold on Sunday. One of the coldest in NFL history. Ouch. I'll have an all day fire while watching the playoffs.

Dolphins-Chiefs is Saturday night. Might be near zero by the end of that game.

Then Sunday afternoon we get Steelers-Bills in a near blizzard in Buffalo!

Yes. Thanks for the correction. Hard for me to keep track sometimes.

[869MB]

For the football watchers the Chiefs Dolphins game is going to be incredibly cold on Sunday. One of the coldest in NFL history. Ouch. I'll have an all day fire while watching the playoffs.

Dolphins-Chiefs is Saturday night. Might be below zero by the end of that game. Miami is going to be very sorry they didn’t win last week.

Then Sunday afternoon we get Steelers-Bills in a near blizzard in Buffalo!

And the Houston Texans should be counting their blessings that the Jacksonville Jaguars choked at the Tennessee Titans or it would have been them traveling to Buffalo for that game.

[3090]

Low pressure forming is going to be quite potent, it appears.

[Tammie]

Low pressure forming is going to be quite potent, it appears.

In the gulf?

[Harp.1]

I thought, if anything, this would be an overrunning situation.

[3090]

Low pressure forming is going to be quite potent, it appears.

In the gulf?

Yes!

[mmmmsnouts]

I’m just wondering how FWD could forecast freezing rain when temps are going to be in the mid teens or lower. Surely it would end up being sleet or snow on the ground?

[orangeblood]

I’m just wondering how FWD could forecast freezing rain when temps are going to be in the mid teens or lower. Surely it would end up being sleet or snow on the ground?

They usually just forecast model output at this range, likely adjust as we get closer to the event

[Texas Snow]

I’m just wondering how FWD could forecast freezing rain when temps are going to be in the mid teens or lower. Surely it would end up being sleet or snow on the ground?

They brought the great Jennifer Dunn back into the forecast room for this AFD which addresses the current thinking, which admittedly will evolve:

LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Night through Thursday/

The most notable change with this forecast is to increase the PoPs
for Sunday afternoon through Monday. We are still expecting a
combination of rain, freezing rain and snow with relatively light
accumulations to occur in this time frame, but the MAIN HEADLINE
continues to be the dangerously low, and at times record-breaking,
temperatures Sunday through Wednesday. Looking ahead, it`s pretty
much a given that a Hard Freeze Warning (temperatures below 10
degrees) and a Wind Chill Advisory (wind chills below zero
degrees) will be needed for much of the region for the early part
of next week. At least a Winter Weather Advisory is also possible
for part of the region Sunday night into Monday, but these
decisions will be collaborated with neighbors and finalized over
the next 1-2 days.

Our first blast of arctic air enters the region during the day on
Saturday. High temperatures will vary across the region based on the
speed of the front. Right now the highs range from the mid 40s in
the north to low 60s in the south and southwest. In addition, breezy
northerly winds of 10-20 mph will follow the front. Saturday night -
Sunday morning will be the first bitterly cold night with
overnight lows in the teens to lower 20s. A little breeze will
continue resulting in wind chill values between -5 degrees to 15
degrees.

Conditions won`t get any nicer on Sunday with highs only in the mid
20s to mid 30s and a slight breeze keeping wind chill values about
10-15 degrees lower than the actual temperature. Sunday afternoon
is when we could see the start of wintry precipitation. On Sunday
afternoon, we`ll be under zonal flow aloft with a shortwave
dropping across the southern Rockies. This will start to spread
larger scale lift into the state, but the best dynamic lift will
still be west of our area Sunday afternoon. However, isentropic
charts show decent isentropic lift across much of the region in
the 285K-300K layer. This lift looks to be enough for light
precipitation to slowly develop across the region starting Sunday
afternoon. Forecast models are responding to this as many of the
models start to output light reflectivity starting Sunday
afternoon.

An analysis of forecast soundings Sunday afternoon shows a layer of
moisture near 850 mb with a fairly dry layer below and at the
surface. Between 850-600 mb, there is another dry layer with
another layer of moisture above 600 mb. The exception to this may
be our northeast counties where the mid layer layer may not be
quite as dry. In the northeast, the sounding profile supports
mostly snow or freezing rain. Elsewhere, the sounding profile
would support a mix of rain or freezing rain depending on surface
temperatures. However, depending on how dry the layer is near the
surface, this may impact how much precipitation reaches the ground
Sunday afternoon. Across North Texas, unfortunately this
precipitation will be falling into a near surface layer that is
well below freezing. Across Central Texas, some areas will still
be near or above freezing Sunday afternoon. There is only a 20%
chance of precipitation for Sunday afternoon but with temperatures
as cold as they are expected across North Texas, anything that
falls will instantly stick and may start causing travel problems.

Precipitation will continue and possibly increase a little Sunday
evening and night as larger scale lift edges into the region.
Isentropic ascent will still be ongoing in the lower levels and this
period is when majority of our wintry precipitation is expected to
fall. The shortwave will pass overnight and the precipitation is
expected to end Monday morning, but there`s a low chance some light
freezing rain continues into Monday afternoon across our eastern and
southern counties.

Along the Red River, snow is currently expected to be the
dominant precipitation type with totals over an inch possible in
our northeast counties. A glaze of ice could also occur. South of
the Red River counties, freezing rain is currently expected to be
the dominant weather type, but some light snow may also occur
along and north of I-20. Ice accumulations are forecasted to
generally be less than 0.10" at this time. However, with the
temperature values, even a little bit of freezing rain and snow
can be expected to result in impacts to roadways, travel, and some
infrastructure.

In the wake of the winter weather potential, dangerously cold
conditions will continue Monday through Wednesday morning. Morning
lows on Monday and Tuesday will range from the single digits to the
teens with wind chill readings below zero. Wednesday morning`s
temperatures will be slightly warmer, but not by much. High
temperatures on Monday may not reach above 20 degrees near the Red
River. On Tuesday, sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures may
begin to melt any ice or snow, especially where temperatures
reach 30 degrees. However, any residual water will refreeze
overnight. The entire region will finally warm into the 40s and
50s on Wednesday.

Climate Stats:
Temperature records are on track to fall at both DFW and Waco
Monday and Tuesday:

DFW:
Low Temperature Monday Jan 15...Forecast is 12 degrees, Record is
11 degrees in 1905.

Lowest High Temperature Monday Jan 15...
Forecast is 26 degrees, Record is 31 degrees in 1917.

Low Temperature Tuesday Jan 16...Forecast is 11 degrees, Record
is 11 degrees in 1930.

Lowest High Temperature Tuesday Jan 16...
Forecast is 30 degrees, Record is 26 degrees in 1953.

Waco:
Low Temperature Monday Jan 15...Forecast is 12 degrees, Record is
17 degrees in 1905.

Lowest High Temperature Monday Jan 15...
Forecast is 29 degrees, Record is 32 degrees in 1917.

Low Temperature Tuesday Jan 16...Forecast is 12 degrees, Record
is 15 degrees in 1930 and 2018.

Lowest High Temperature Tuesday Jan 16...
Forecast is 31 degrees, Record is 30 degrees in 1916 and 1953.

JLDunn

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS was a little funky with the second Arctic blast for the 18z. I'm with Ntx, this could be a historic period for the next few weeks.

One thing I'm curious about, will the Greenland Block hang on longer than the models are forecasting? It's already forecasting it to stay longer than it said 5 days ago.

[orangeblood]

GFS was a little funky with the second Arctic blast for the 18z. I'm with Ntx, this could be a historic period for the next few weeks.

One thing I'm curious about, will the Greenland Block hang on longer than the models are forecasting? It's already forecasting it to stay longer than it said 5 days ago.

Just released Euro weeklies have it in place thru week 1, relax a little week 2, then comes back week 3 and beyond. Negative EPO WPO AO and NAO, positive PNA. Most notable is the Cross Polar flow that should continue to seed cold to NA thru what appears the remainder of winter.

30 day mean 500mb anomalies

[Cerlin]

Taking a moment to appreciate how insane this front is that’s going to go over central Oklahoma soon. It’s currently in the 60s outside and when I wake up, the wind chills will be approaching zero. And it’s all downhill from there…

[Itryatgolf]

GFS was a little funky with the second Arctic blast for the 18z. I'm with Ntx, this could be a historic period for the next few weeks.

One thing I'm curious about, will the Greenland Block hang on longer than the models are forecasting? It's already forecasting it to stay longer than it said 5 days ago.

Just released Euro weeklies have it in place thru week 1, relax a little week 2, then comes back week 3 and beyond. Negative EPO WPO AO and NAO, positive PNA. Most notable is the Cross Polar flow that should continue to seed cold to NA thru what appears the remainder of winter.

30 day mean 500mb anomalies
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-weeklies-avg/nhemi/z500_anom_30day/1704931200/1707696000-11jSJhVabys.png

Hopefully we can find precipitation here while it's cold as well

[ElectricStorm]

Taking a moment to appreciate how insane this front is that’s going to go over central Oklahoma soon. It’s currently in the 60s outside and when I wake up, the wind chills will be approaching zero. And it’s all downhill from there…

Yep gonna be a wild ride

[Tireman4]

For all us of involved, this will be an interesting week coming. Stay safe, preprare wisely and be weather aware.

[Ntxw]

18z Euro is mostly snow north of I-20. Makes sense, it's hard to mix with such low temps. Mixed bag south into C TX.

[Brent]

18z Euro is mostly snow north of I-20. Makes sense, it's hard to mix with such low temps. Mixed bag south into C TX.

It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it

[Ghost0321]

TV mets still too conservative with the low temps for DFW imo

[Ntxw]

18z Euro is mostly snow north of I-20. Makes sense, it's hard to mix with such low temps. Mixed bag south into C TX.

It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it

For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

18z Euro is mostly snow north of I-20. Makes sense, it's hard to mix with such low temps. Mixed bag south into C TX.

It's way drier though which concerns me. We've come too far today to go backwards and I really hope the 0z reserves it

For Oklahoma yeah. For TX we are trending better. There's an STJ linkage. Two precip shields converging.

The STJ component is wild card. It will provide much more qpf the more it can get injected into the flow within the southern sector. This is why guidance intensifies the band as it crosses Red River.

Meso models see this scenario.