Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

You central and north texans enjoy this system, i’ve completely given up on seeing any frozen precipitation out of this event, see yall next winter

[txtwister78]

NAM is supposed to be better at seeing/handling arctic cold? Delayed would actually be better though in this situation. All about timing. Just think what models had several days ago. Going to need every bit of that cold air in the plains to bleed down.

[JDawg512]

ICON's scary forecast for Austin:

33–30...Wednesday (very light snow changing to freezing rain; 0.32 inches of ice)

31–29....Thursday (freezing rain changing to snow; 0.28 inches of new ice; 5.8 inches of new snow)

That's an ice storm plus a snow storm. The ice accumulations would be very close to February 2023 levels.

EWX will get to issue ice storm warnings for the first time after deciding earlier this year to begin using them instead of broad–brush winter storm warnings.

I seriously hope this doesn't pan out. I have PTSD from the last winter storm due to being out of power for almost 4 days. My elderly father got sick due to that event and has never quite recovered.

[Ntxw]

Here's a fun one, UKMET does nada for anyone .

[wxman22]

Big increase in snow accumulation mean on the GEFS.

[orangeblood]

NAM is supposed to be better at seeing/handling arctic cold? Delayed would actually be better though in this situation. All about timing. Just think what models had several days ago. Going to need every bit of that cold air in the plains to bleed down.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2025010412/081/sfct-imp.us_sc.png

It’s warmer due to no cloud cover at this time frame . However, dew points in the teens, aggressive evaporative cooling will crater those surface temps as soon as precip begins

[orangeblood]

Here's a fun one, UKMET does nada for anyone .

Continues to miss the phasing with northern stream, last domino left!!

[Ntxw]

Here's a fun one, UKMET does nada for anyone .

Continues to miss the phasing with northern stream, last domino left!!

I used to think higher of it, but that's when we only got up to 72 hours, which all the models generally are pretty decent in that range. Once access to 144+ hours its longer 5 day I've not been a fan of.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Obviously a lot of this discussion is oriented toward where the users are, namely North Texas.

Could anyone (*cough* ahem, ntxw ) explain a little bit about the various factors in play for the Austin area?

From what I can gather, we need the low out west to dig a little deeper, keeping the STJ on the southern side of the state giving central and east Texas access to plenty of moisture, while also needing the front to be strong enough to keep temps below freezing that far south?

Looking at the model soundings, this doesn't necessarily appear to be the typical shallow front with a really large warm nose in or below the DGZ. It seems like it all boils down to just how potent this front is; if it's cold enough at the surface, it will likely be cold enough aloft for at least some snow to mix in. Does that seem like a reasonable take?

What are some things to look for with respect to track and timing that would favor/disfavor a snow event in South Central Texas vs. a mixed precip/sleet/ice/cold rain event?

[txtwister78]

NAM is supposed to be better at seeing/handling arctic cold? Delayed would actually be better though in this situation. All about timing. Just think what models had several days ago. Going to need every bit of that cold air in the plains to bleed down.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2025010412/081/sfct-imp.us_sc.png

It’s warmer due to no cloud cover. However, dew points in the teens, aggressive evaporative cooling will crater those surface temps as soon as precip begins

No, I know why it's warmer and I just mentioned the evaporative cooling prospect above in the thread in regard to the CMC dews, so I get that but was just commenting about the lack of arctic air that some were quite certain a few days ago was on the way.

At any rate, talk about a reversal.

[Brandon8181]

For the I-20 corridor and west Texas part of the state the ICON's surface temps of upper 20s to near 30 during the event is ideal. 850s are also in the ~ -5C range. You would get pretty decent ratios probably a little better than 10:1.

I think we can fade the global models cooler than what they are currently showing. This could be an epic event for Texas.

Yes, sir, I really think the euro has been too warm.

[Ntxw]

Obviously a lot of this discussion is oriented toward where the users are, namely North Texas.

Could anyone (*cough* ahem, ntxw ) explain a little bit about the various factors in play for the Austin area?

From what I can gather, we need the low out west to dig a little deeper, keeping the STJ on the southern side of the state giving central and east Texas access to plenty of moisture, while also needing the front to be strong enough to keep temps below freezing that far south?

Looking at the model soundings, this doesn't necessarily appear to be the typical shallow front with a really large warm nose in or below the DGZ. It seems like it all boils down to just how potent this front is; if it's cold enough at the surface, it will likely be cold enough aloft for at least some snow to mix in. Does that seem like a reasonable take?

What are some things to look for with respect to track and timing that would favor/disfavor a snow event in South Central Texas vs. a mixed precip/sleet/ice/cold rain event?

I'm not sure the the path or line of thinking ice storm is really at play. It's either too warm for rain, or cold enough for rain/sleet, or snow type deal. It's old cold, initial front is tomorrow and Monday, then held down by digging western trough. The system will push warm, moist air over it. At that point the ULL/features will try to cool the atmosphere above our heads. If by then your surface cold layer is colder than what the model tried to erode then you got a shot. Where precip shield is, with the lift, will tend to be colder than surrounding regions. True in all places.

[Brandon8181]

Here's a fun one, UKMET does nada for anyone .

When does the UK met ever do anything?

[Portastorm]

ICON's scary forecast for Austin:

33–30...Wednesday (very light snow changing to freezing rain; 0.32 inches of ice)

31–29....Thursday (freezing rain changing to snow; 0.28 inches of new ice; 5.8 inches of new snow)

That's an ice storm plus a snow storm. The ice accumulations would be very close to February 2023 levels.

EWX will get to issue ice storm warnings for the first time after deciding earlier this year to begin using them instead of broad–brush winter storm warnings.

Based on how the city has responded in the last few events ... should this verify ... we'll need the National Guard activated to rescue Austinites!

[Harp.1]

Euro??

[txtwister78]

This reminds me a lot of Dec 2017 setup across HC and SC TX. That event was pure dynamic in nature. In fact, I don't think we ever went below freezing here but the convective nature of the precip helped to cool layers above just enough to deliver some heavy burst of wet snow. Started across the Hill Country and then eventually transitioned from rain to snow further south in the evening. I'm sure there will be some differences but if I recall we were in the mid 40's earlier in the day and temps dropped from there as precip began to fall.

All about where the precip shield ends up. Right now, areas N and NW still favored but ICON and CMC continue to keep it close.

[Portastorm]

This reminds me a lot of Dec 2017 setup across HC and SC TX. That event was pure dynamic in nature. In fact, I don't think we ever went below freezing here but the convective nature of the precip helped to cool layers above just enough to deliver some heavy burst of wet snow. Started across the Hill Country and then eventually transitioned from rain to snow further south in the evening. I'm sure there will be some differences but if I recall we were in the mid 40's earlier in the day and temps dropped from there as precip began to fall.

All about where the precip shield ends up. Right now, areas N and NW still favored but ICON and CMC continue to keep it close.

Agreed. I remember that evening watching it snow at a moderate pace in Austin while the surface temps were in the mid 30s.

[txtwister78]

This reminds me a lot of Dec 2017 setup across HC and SC TX. That event was pure dynamic in nature. In fact, I don't think we ever went below freezing here but the convective nature of the precip helped to cool layers above just enough to deliver some heavy burst of wet snow. Started across the Hill Country and then eventually transitioned from rain to snow further south in the evening. I'm sure there will be some differences but if I recall we were in the mid 40's earlier in the day and temps dropped from there as precip began to fall.

All about where the precip shield ends up. Right now, areas N and NW still favored but ICON and CMC continue to keep it close.

Agreed. I remember that evening watching it snow at a moderate pace in Austin while the surface temps were in the mid 30s.

Yup...all the kids were bummed out because they still had to go to school down here next day.

[wxman22]

Wow!

[Ntxw]

Mid to upper 1040s high over the central plains on the Euro, which is the best of the OPs non elevation related, so no lack of mechanism to drive the cold early this coming week.