June 4-7: Severe wx (Omaha tornado update)
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...
VALID 051656Z - 051800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460
CONTINUES.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED TO JUST
E-CNTRL/SERN LOWER MI AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS. THE MORE INTENSE
REFLECTIVITY ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS NOW JUST E OF I-75 CORRIDOR N OF
FNT HAS BEEN UNORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MITIGATING
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS
ALSO RETARDED SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN
LOWER MI. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE THUMB OF LOWER MI...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SBCAPES /AOB 1000
J/KG/. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...A NARROW
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF GUSTY WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO MCS PUSHING EWD ACROSS LK HURON AND SRN ONTARIO.
ANY REDEVELOPMENT ALONG TRAILING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT SHOULD
BE SUPPRESSED IN THE NEAR-TERM GIVEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MCS
AND MID-LEVEL WARMING STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION.
..GRAMS.. 06/05/2008
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...
43768209 43068238 42808278 42968346 43548384 43948388
44258355 44388286 4434822
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460...
VALID 051656Z - 051800Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 460
CONTINUES.
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED TO JUST
E-CNTRL/SERN LOWER MI AHEAD OF ONGOING MCS. THE MORE INTENSE
REFLECTIVITY ON LEADING EDGE OF MCS NOW JUST E OF I-75 CORRIDOR N OF
FNT HAS BEEN UNORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MITIGATING
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE THREAT. EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS
ALSO RETARDED SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN
LOWER MI. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE THUMB OF LOWER MI...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK SBCAPES /AOB 1000
J/KG/. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO STEEPEN...A NARROW
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF GUSTY WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL APPEARS
POSSIBLE PRIOR TO MCS PUSHING EWD ACROSS LK HURON AND SRN ONTARIO.
ANY REDEVELOPMENT ALONG TRAILING COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT SHOULD
BE SUPPRESSED IN THE NEAR-TERM GIVEN THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF MCS
AND MID-LEVEL WARMING STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION.
..GRAMS.. 06/05/2008
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...
43768209 43068238 42808278 42968346 43548384 43948388
44258355 44388286 4434822
0 likes
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Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
Re: June 4-7: Severe weather outbreak, HIGH RISK today
SPC AC 051654 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN KS...ERN NEB...NW MO AND WRN IA... ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS...NW MO...ERN NEB...SERN SD...IA AND SRN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EXPECTED TO EJECT RAPIDLY NE INTO ND BY 12Z FRIDAY...PROPELLED BY FAST WLY JET OVER THE NE PACIFIC. 80-90 KT MID-LVL FLOW NOW ROUNDING BASE OF LOW WILL REDEVELOP NE ACROSS THE PLNS TODAY AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW NOW IN WRN KS SHOULD DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N TO THE NEB/SD BORDER THIS EVENING AND INTO SE ND EARLY FRIDAY. ...PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY... SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE YIELDS A WIDE CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL IN PART OVERLAY BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR FROM THE PLNS INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY. A SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER OUTBREAK IN TERMS OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MDT RISK REGION...WHERE BOTH TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN NB SWD THROUGH W CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH WRN TX. A WARM FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ENEWD THROUGH SRN NEB....CNTRL IA AND SRN WI. A WARM EML HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXIST. BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM OK NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS THROUGH ERN NEB. STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM MODES AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. OTHER STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL KS WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING. CURVED 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EAST OF SURFACE LOW WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB AND PARTS OF KS. FARTHER S AND E...MAJOR QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE PREDOMINANT STORM MODE AND CORRESPONDING SVR WEATHER THREATS FROM OK/KS. WITH THE SERN U.S. RIDGE HOLDING FIRM...AND WITH UPSTREAM SPEED MAX ON ITS IMMEDIATE HEELS...EXPECT THAT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL AT BEST ONLY GLANCE ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLNS /I.E. S AND E OF I-44 IN OK/. COUPLED WITH EXISTING VERY WARM 700 MB LAYER WITH THE RIDGE...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP SERN EDGE TO THE SVR THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH W CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK. INITIAL STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXIST FOR STORMS TO EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINEAR AND MIXED MODES WITH BOTH LINES AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LEWP/BOW ECHOE STRUCTURES BECOMING LIKELY AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND. EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO OK BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR MODES LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. AT THE SAME TIME...INCREASING UVV/SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLOW AND MODEST SFC HEATING MAY INITIATE SCTD STORMS ALONG OR N WARM FRONT FROM NRN NEB ACROSS SERN SD INTO MN/WI. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT IN MI. INTENSITY OF WIND FIELD THROUGHOUT THE PLNS ENSURES THAT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL ROTATE. BUT DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE PROFILES ABOVE THE NEAR-SFC LAYER /REFLECTING EARLY-SPRING TYPE KINEMATIC SETUP/ LIKELY WILL YIELD VERY STRONGLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR...THESE COULD YIELD STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES. ON THE OTHER HAND...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS /AVERAGE LATE AFTN DCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1000 J PER KG IN KS AND OK/. COUPLED WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...AND LINEAR DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT /HEIGHT FALLS/...EXPECT THAT BY EVENING STORMS WILL HAVE ORGANIZED INTO AN EXTENSIVE BROKEN BAND FROM SRN/ERN NEB SWD INTO OK. ESPECIALLY IN NEB...KS...WRN IA AND NW MO...INTENSE FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS/LEWPS COULD PRODUCE LONG SWATHS OF DMGG WIND...IN ADDITION TO A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. ..DIAL/GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/05/2008 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1701Z (1:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Severe weather outbreak, HIGH RISK today
SPC AC 051654
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN KS...ERN
NEB...NW MO AND WRN IA...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND
ERN KS...NW MO...ERN NEB...SERN SD...IA AND SRN MN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EXPECTED TO
EJECT RAPIDLY NE INTO ND BY 12Z FRIDAY...PROPELLED BY FAST WLY JET
OVER THE NE PACIFIC. 80-90 KT MID-LVL FLOW NOW ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
WILL REDEVELOP NE ACROSS THE PLNS TODAY AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY
TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW NOW IN WRN KS SHOULD DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N TO THE NEB/SD BORDER THIS EVENING AND INTO SE
ND EARLY FRIDAY.
...PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY...
SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE YIELDS A WIDE CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO INTENSE
VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL IN PART OVERLAY BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR
FROM THE PLNS INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY. A SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER
OUTBREAK IN TERMS OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MDT RISK REGION...WHERE BOTH TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN NB SWD THROUGH W
CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH WRN TX. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ENEWD THROUGH SRN NEB....CNTRL IA AND
SRN WI. A WARM EML HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXIST. BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
FROM OK NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS THROUGH ERN NEB. STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS
MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED. LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM MODES
AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW FROM S
CNTRL NEB SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL KS WHERE VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING. CURVED 0-1
KM HODOGRAPHS EAST OF SURFACE LOW WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB AND PARTS OF
KS.
FARTHER S AND E...MAJOR QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE PREDOMINANT
STORM MODE AND CORRESPONDING SVR WEATHER THREATS FROM OK/KS. WITH
THE SERN U.S. RIDGE HOLDING FIRM...AND WITH UPSTREAM SPEED MAX ON
ITS IMMEDIATE HEELS...EXPECT THAT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL AT BEST ONLY GLANCE ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLNS /I.E. S AND E OF I-44 IN OK/. COUPLED WITH EXISTING
VERY WARM 700 MB LAYER WITH THE RIDGE...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A
SHARP SERN EDGE TO THE SVR THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH W CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK.
INITIAL STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINEAR AND MIXED MODES WITH BOTH LINES
AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LEWP/BOW ECHOE STRUCTURES BECOMING LIKELY AS
ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND.
EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD ALONG
DRYLINE INTO OK BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR MODES LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. AT THE SAME
TIME...INCREASING UVV/SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLOW AND MODEST SFC
HEATING MAY INITIATE SCTD STORMS ALONG OR N WARM FRONT FROM NRN NEB
ACROSS SERN SD INTO MN/WI. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN MI.
INTENSITY OF WIND FIELD THROUGHOUT THE PLNS ENSURES THAT ANY
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL ROTATE. BUT DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE PROFILES ABOVE THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
/REFLECTING EARLY-SPRING TYPE KINEMATIC SETUP/ LIKELY WILL YIELD
VERY STRONGLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF WARM
SECTOR...THESE COULD YIELD STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES.
ON THE OTHER HAND...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE GREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS /AVERAGE LATE
AFTN DCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1000 J PER KG IN KS AND OK/. COUPLED
WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...AND LINEAR DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT /HEIGHT FALLS/...EXPECT THAT BY EVENING STORMS WILL HAVE
ORGANIZED INTO AN EXTENSIVE BROKEN BAND FROM SRN/ERN NEB SWD INTO
OK. ESPECIALLY IN NEB...KS...WRN IA AND NW MO...INTENSE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS/LEWPS COULD PRODUCE LONG SWATHS OF DMGG
WIND...IN ADDITION TO A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
..DIAL/GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1701Z (1:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN KS...ERN
NEB...NW MO AND WRN IA...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN OK THROUGH CNTRL AND
ERN KS...NW MO...ERN NEB...SERN SD...IA AND SRN MN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS EXPECTED TO
EJECT RAPIDLY NE INTO ND BY 12Z FRIDAY...PROPELLED BY FAST WLY JET
OVER THE NE PACIFIC. 80-90 KT MID-LVL FLOW NOW ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
WILL REDEVELOP NE ACROSS THE PLNS TODAY AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY
TONIGHT. AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW NOW IN WRN KS SHOULD DEEPEN
SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N TO THE NEB/SD BORDER THIS EVENING AND INTO SE
ND EARLY FRIDAY.
...PLNS INTO MID/UPR MS VLY...
SETUP DESCRIBED ABOVE YIELDS A WIDE CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO INTENSE
VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WILL IN PART OVERLAY BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR
FROM THE PLNS INTO THE MID/UPR MS VLY. A SIGNIFICANT SVR WEATHER
OUTBREAK IN TERMS OF BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MDT RISK REGION...WHERE BOTH TORNADOES
AND WIDESPREAD DMGG WINDS APPEAR LIKELY.
COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM A SURFACE LOW IN SWRN NB SWD THROUGH W
CNTRL KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE IT INTERSECTS A DRYLINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH WRN TX. A WARM
FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW ENEWD THROUGH SRN NEB....CNTRL IA AND
SRN WI. A WARM EML HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 EXIST. BREAKS IN
CLOUDS ARE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
FROM OK NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN KS THROUGH ERN NEB. STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER ERN NEB WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THESE STORMS
MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. HOWEVER...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO WARM...STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SURFACE BASED. LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM MODES
AS ACTIVITY BECOMES ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW FROM S
CNTRL NEB SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH CNTRL KS WHERE VISIBLE
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING. CURVED 0-1
KM HODOGRAPHS EAST OF SURFACE LOW WILL POSE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEB AND PARTS OF
KS.
FARTHER S AND E...MAJOR QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE PREDOMINANT
STORM MODE AND CORRESPONDING SVR WEATHER THREATS FROM OK/KS. WITH
THE SERN U.S. RIDGE HOLDING FIRM...AND WITH UPSTREAM SPEED MAX ON
ITS IMMEDIATE HEELS...EXPECT THAT HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
EJECTING FOUR CORNERS LOW WILL AT BEST ONLY GLANCE ERN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLNS /I.E. S AND E OF I-44 IN OK/. COUPLED WITH EXISTING
VERY WARM 700 MB LAYER WITH THE RIDGE...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A
SHARP SERN EDGE TO THE SVR THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP SWD ALONG COLD FRONT THROUGH W CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK.
INITIAL STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT OF
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINEAR AND MIXED MODES WITH BOTH LINES
AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL MAINTAIN
ORGANIZED STORMS WITH LEWP/BOW ECHOE STRUCTURES BECOMING LIKELY AS
ACTIVITY ADVANCES EAST WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WIND.
EXPECT THAT ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL STORMS WILL DEVELOP SWD ALONG
DRYLINE INTO OK BEFORE STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINEAR MODES LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. AT THE SAME
TIME...INCREASING UVV/SUSTAINED MOISTURE INFLOW AND MODEST SFC
HEATING MAY INITIATE SCTD STORMS ALONG OR N WARM FRONT FROM NRN NEB
ACROSS SERN SD INTO MN/WI. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN MI.
INTENSITY OF WIND FIELD THROUGHOUT THE PLNS ENSURES THAT ANY
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL ROTATE. BUT DECIDEDLY MERIDIONAL/LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE PROFILES ABOVE THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
/REFLECTING EARLY-SPRING TYPE KINEMATIC SETUP/ LIKELY WILL YIELD
VERY STRONGLY ELONGATED AND SHEARED STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN
QUALITY OF MOISTURE INFLOW AND MERIDIONAL EXTENT OF WARM
SECTOR...THESE COULD YIELD STRONG...LONG TRACK TORNADOES.
ON THE OTHER HAND...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE GREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS /AVERAGE LATE
AFTN DCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1000 J PER KG IN KS AND OK/. COUPLED
WITH DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD...AND LINEAR DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT /HEIGHT FALLS/...EXPECT THAT BY EVENING STORMS WILL HAVE
ORGANIZED INTO AN EXTENSIVE BROKEN BAND FROM SRN/ERN NEB SWD INTO
OK. ESPECIALLY IN NEB...KS...WRN IA AND NW MO...INTENSE
FORWARD-PROPAGATING SEGMENTS/LEWPS COULD PRODUCE LONG SWATHS OF DMGG
WIND...IN ADDITION TO A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
..DIAL/GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 06/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1701Z (1:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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I see we have our first tornado warning, not relaly all that surprising to be honest!
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
IAC133-NEC173-051730-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0127.080605T1707Z-080605T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1207 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MONONA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT.
* AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WALTHILL...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 56 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINNEBAGO...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. GO
TO A SAFE PLACE INSIDE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND GLASS DOORS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LAT...LON 4228 9633 4223 9633 4222 9634 4222 9625
4221 9625 4210 9638 4217 9659 4228 9655
4228 9637 4229 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 211DEG 48KT 4219 9643
$$
DERGAN
tornado risk has also been increased upto 30% as expected.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
IAC133-NEC173-051730-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0127.080605T1707Z-080605T1730Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1207 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN THURSTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MONONA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA...
* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT.
* AT 1206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WALTHILL...OR 22 MILES SOUTH OF SIOUX CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 56 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WINNEBAGO...
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.
HAIL THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. GO
TO A SAFE PLACE INSIDE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND GLASS DOORS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LAT...LON 4228 9633 4223 9633 4222 9634 4222 9625
4221 9625 4210 9638 4217 9659 4228 9655
4228 9637 4229 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 211DEG 48KT 4219 9643
$$
DERGAN
tornado risk has also been increased upto 30% as expected.
0 likes
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
-
Weatherfreak14
- Category 5
- Posts: 1383
- Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
- Location: Beaufort, SC
- Contact:
Re:
HarlequinBoy wrote:They went 30% for a small area in Nebraska.
IMO they should of made it a tad bit larger.
0 likes
Yep bunkertor its on page 12 posted at 10.50 local time, though been none yet and I suspect there won't be many for another couple of hours till daylight heating really gets things juicy.
Maybe though ther eis probably still uncertainty with how quickly it will evolve hence probably the small 30$ region.
Maybe though ther eis probably still uncertainty with how quickly it will evolve hence probably the small 30$ region.
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CHAMBERLAIN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW
461...WW 462...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF
NEB AND INTO SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1205 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CHAMBERLAIN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
WORTHINGTON MINNESOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW
461...WW 462...
DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF
NEB AND INTO SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SOME THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
0 likes
Still got that tornado warning out:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
COC009-051745-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080605T1745Z/
BACA CO-
1107 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM MDT FOR CENTRAL
BACA COUNTY...
TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WHEN THE STORM WAS
WEST OF CAMPO AT 1049 AM. AT 1105 AM THIS SEVERE STORM WAS CENTERED
6 MILES EAST OF CAMPO...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. OTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER NORTHWEST BACA COUNTY ABOUT 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONINGTON.
LAT...LON 3736 10279 3733 10214 3700 10234 3701 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 236DEG 30KT 3718 10239
$
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1110 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
COC009-051745-
/O.CON.KPUB.TO.W.0004.000000T0000Z-080605T1745Z/
BACA CO-
1107 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM MDT FOR CENTRAL
BACA COUNTY...
TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WHEN THE STORM WAS
WEST OF CAMPO AT 1049 AM. AT 1105 AM THIS SEVERE STORM WAS CENTERED
6 MILES EAST OF CAMPO...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND
WAS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. OTHER STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER NORTHWEST BACA COUNTY ABOUT 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STONINGTON.
LAT...LON 3736 10279 3733 10214 3700 10234 3701 10275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1707Z 236DEG 30KT 3718 10239
$
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Severe weather outbreak, HIGH RISK today
SPC AC 051729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/FAR EASTERN
IA/EASTERN MO/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN IND/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
NEARLY STACKED/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET AND A
CONTINUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /990-985 MB/. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SURFACE LOW...PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LIKELY RETREATING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO ROCKIES LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AMIDST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME.
...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI/IA/MO. DESTABILIZATION/STORM
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE IN MOST
LOCALES...DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITHIN THE PRE-COLD
FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. BENEATH THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET...STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOTH
QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...OWING TO RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
AND A RETREATING COLD FRONT AND MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR. WHILE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONDITIONAL/RELATIVELY MORE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED IN NATURE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
...PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
THE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. OWING TO MODEST
LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG /GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS/...ALTHOUGH SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER SRH ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A FEW
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
..GUYER.. 06/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1738Z (1:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/FAR EASTERN
IA/EASTERN MO/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN IND/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
NEARLY STACKED/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET AND A
CONTINUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /990-985 MB/. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SURFACE LOW...PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LIKELY RETREATING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO ROCKIES LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AMIDST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT REGIME.
...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI/IA/MO. DESTABILIZATION/STORM
INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE IN MOST
LOCALES...DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITHIN THE PRE-COLD
FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. BENEATH THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET...STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOTH
QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...OWING TO RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
AND A RETREATING COLD FRONT AND MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR. WHILE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONDITIONAL/RELATIVELY MORE
SCATTERED/ISOLATED IN NATURE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
...PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA
REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
THE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. OWING TO MODEST
LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG /GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS/...ALTHOUGH SOME
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER SRH ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A FEW
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
..GUYER.. 06/05/2008
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1738Z (1:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Severe weather outbreak, HIGH RISK today
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 051711
IAZ000-KSZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-060115-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN NEB WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH KS...OK AND
NWRN TX. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.
STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS W CNTRL KS AS WELL
AS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA. OTHER STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY IN THESE REGIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES WITH
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. DOMINANT STORM MODE
MAY TRANSITION TO LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS BY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION WITH A
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..DIAL.. 06/05/2008
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 051711
IAZ000-KSZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-060115-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN NEB WILL LIFT SLOWLY NNEWD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH KS...OK AND
NWRN TX. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION.
STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS W CNTRL KS AS WELL
AS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA. OTHER STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN OK. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE...STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY IN THESE REGIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES WITH
A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. DOMINANT STORM MODE
MAY TRANSITION TO LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS BY EVENING AS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION WITH A
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..DIAL.. 06/05/2008
$$
0 likes
Yep seems like at first the risk for tornado with the risk of high straight line winds increasing as time goes along.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC047-145-165-185-051815-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0182.080605T1738Z-080605T1815Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
EAST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT
* AT 1235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZOOK...
LARNED...
RADIUM...
SEWARD...
SHAFFER...
OTIS...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN EDWARDS...EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN
STAFFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES.
BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LAT...LON 3800 9923 3863 9912 3854 9904 3825 9902
3825 9852 3822 9848 3781 9923
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 211DEG 39KT 3804 9911
$$
RITTERLING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KSC047-145-165-185-051815-
/O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0182.080605T1738Z-080605T1815Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1238 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
EAST CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
EASTERN PAWNEE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
NORTHERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT
* AT 1235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ZOOK...
LARNED...
RADIUM...
SEWARD...
SHAFFER...
OTIS...
RURAL RESIDENCES OF EASTERN EDWARDS...EASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN
STAFFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES.
BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LAT...LON 3800 9923 3863 9912 3854 9904 3825 9902
3825 9852 3822 9848 3781 9923
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 211DEG 39KT 3804 9911
$$
RITTERLING
0 likes
-
wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
Storms west of Wichita really beginning to crank although still very linear...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.
* AT 1238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTH OF PAWNEE ROCK...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
OF LARNED...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 48 MPH.
* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CLAFLIN...GREAT BEND...GREAT BEND AIRPORT...HOISINGTON...PAWNEE
ROCK...SUSANK.
SAFETY INFORMATION FOR THIS WARNING FOLLOWS:
THE STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE OR OTHER ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT...WHILE LIGHTNING IS IN THE
AREA.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.
* AT 1238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTH OF PAWNEE ROCK...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
OF LARNED...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 48 MPH.
* LOCATIONS WITHIN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CLAFLIN...GREAT BEND...GREAT BEND AIRPORT...HOISINGTON...PAWNEE
ROCK...SUSANK.
SAFETY INFORMATION FOR THIS WARNING FOLLOWS:
THE STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE OR OTHER ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT...WHILE LIGHTNING IS IN THE
AREA.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
0 likes
Yep they sure are though the linear nature should suggest higher straight winds.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NEC027-051815-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0130.080605T1742Z-080605T1815Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT.
* AT 1238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF HARTINGTON TO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HARTINGTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VERMILLION TO 27 MILES SOUTH OF YANKTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARTINGTON AND WYNOT...
GOLF BALL HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
COLERIDGE AT 1233 PM. AREAS FROM HARTINGTON TO WYNOT ARE UNDER THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE. GO TO A
SAFE PLACE INSIDE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
GLASS DOORS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LAT...LON 4286 9728 4286 9723 4283 9722 4278 9713
4277 9702 4276 9701 4256 9701 4247 9741
4287 9735 4288 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 208DEG 56KT 4263 9705 4255 9732
$$
DERGAN
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NEC027-051815-
/O.NEW.KOAX.SV.W.0130.080605T1742Z-080605T1815Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT.
* AT 1238 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF HARTINGTON TO 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HARTINGTON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VERMILLION TO 27 MILES SOUTH OF YANKTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARTINGTON AND WYNOT...
GOLF BALL HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF
COLERIDGE AT 1233 PM. AREAS FROM HARTINGTON TO WYNOT ARE UNDER THE
GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THESE STORMS.
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE. GO TO A
SAFE PLACE INSIDE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
GLASS DOORS.
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN NEBRASKA.
LAT...LON 4286 9728 4286 9723 4283 9722 4278 9713
4277 9702 4276 9701 4256 9701 4247 9741
4287 9735 4288 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 1742Z 208DEG 56KT 4263 9705 4255 9732
$$
DERGAN
0 likes
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34002
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: June 4-7: Severe weather outbreak, HIGH RISK today
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1228
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...CNTRL KS INTO NW OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 461...462...
VALID 051744Z - 051915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 461...462...CONTINUES.
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND...COOLING/LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE JET AXIS
IS WEAKENING INHIBITION ALONG INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION/INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.
IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE
LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO EXTREMELY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS AN 80-90 KT
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET CORE REDEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS IS WHERE STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST
BEFORE POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO A LARGER STORM CLUSTER. SYNOPTIC
WARM FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF BROKEN BOW INTO THE SIOUX CITY IA AREA MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS. BUT...SURFACE FLOW REMAINS BACKED AROUND TO
SOUTHEASTERLY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...
NORTH OF OLD WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS
COUPLED WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE
...BENEATH BROADER SCALE DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
FEW LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 06/05/2008
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...AMA...
41530064 42210018 42619934 42789753 42639686 41649609
40789579 39949603 39689677 39229733 37009783 35889844
35389927 35619970 36020037 38009919 39839899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...CNTRL KS INTO NW OK
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 461...462...
VALID 051744Z - 051915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 461...462...CONTINUES.
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AND...COOLING/LIFT ALONG/WEST OF THE JET AXIS
IS WEAKENING INHIBITION ALONG INITIAL SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERWAY...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION/INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z.
IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF
2000-3000 J/KG...AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A SEVERE SQUALL LINE
LIKELY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO EXTREMELY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AS AN 80-90 KT
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET CORE REDEVELOPS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS.
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS IS WHERE STORMS MAY REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST
BEFORE POSSIBLY CONGEALING INTO A LARGER STORM CLUSTER. SYNOPTIC
WARM FRONT NEAR/NORTH OF BROKEN BOW INTO THE SIOUX CITY IA AREA MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS. BUT...SURFACE FLOW REMAINS BACKED AROUND TO
SOUTHEASTERLY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...
NORTH OF OLD WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS
COUPLED WITH AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY NEAR DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE
...BENEATH BROADER SCALE DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A
FEW LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH STRONG TORNADOES.
..KERR.. 06/05/2008
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...LBF...DDC...AMA...
41530064 42210018 42619934 42789753 42639686 41649609
40789579 39949603 39689677 39229733 37009783 35889844
35389927 35619970 36020037 38009919 39839899
0 likes
Looks like the tornado warning has been discountinued so now just got the other warnings such as this:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
COC089-051815-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-080605T1815Z/
OTERO CO-
1147 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM MDT
FOR OTERO COUNTY...
AT 1139 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE CENTERED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA JUNTA TO 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA JUNTA...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA JUNTA.
SWINK.
ROCKY FORD.
LAT...LON 3810 10403 3807 10340 3765 10340 3786 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 204DEG 20KT 3792 10374 3790 10339
$$
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
COC089-051815-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-080605T1815Z/
OTERO CO-
1147 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM MDT
FOR OTERO COUNTY...
AT 1139 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE CENTERED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA JUNTA TO 11
MILES SOUTHEAST OF LA JUNTA...MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LA JUNTA.
SWINK.
ROCKY FORD.
LAT...LON 3810 10403 3807 10340 3765 10340 3786 10404
TIME...MOT...LOC 1747Z 204DEG 20KT 3792 10374 3790 10339
$$
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Looks like some cells getting into KS need to be watched for severe weather, I expect a couple of tornado warnings very shortly. For now keeping up with the severe thunderstorm warnings is hard enough!
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
COC063-KSC181-199-051915-
/O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0168.080605T1808Z-080605T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1208 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 115 PM MDT
* AT 1205 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH
OF KANORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KANORADO AROUND 1220 PM MDT...
KANORADO AROUND 1225 PM MDT...
RULETON AROUND 1235 PM MDT...
GOODLAND AROUND 1245 PM MDT...
EDSON AROUND 1255 PM MDT...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 33.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 159 AND 183.
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.
LAT...LON 3957 10181 3933 10140 3901 10200 3921 10227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 227DEG 31KT 3917 10205
$$
LOCKHART
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
COC063-KSC181-199-051915-
/O.NEW.KGLD.SV.W.0168.080605T1808Z-080605T1915Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1208 PM MDT THU JUN 5 2008
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...
* UNTIL 115 PM MDT
* AT 1205 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 13 MILES SOUTH
OF KANORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
KANORADO AROUND 1220 PM MDT...
KANORADO AROUND 1225 PM MDT...
RULETON AROUND 1235 PM MDT...
GOODLAND AROUND 1245 PM MDT...
EDSON AROUND 1255 PM MDT...
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 33.
THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 27 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 159 AND 183.
PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
GOODLAND.
LAT...LON 3957 10181 3933 10140 3901 10200 3921 10227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 227DEG 31KT 3917 10205
$$
LOCKHART
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HarlequinBoy
- Category 5
- Posts: 1400
- Age: 34
- Joined: Wed Nov 29, 2006 1:57 am
- Location: Memphis
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