WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[CrazyC83]

With such high T-numbers, I would say 145 kt for the current intensity. I'd even be willing to guess 150 kt as ADT estimates, but I'd want to see higher numbers from SSD first.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2009 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 16:33:22 N Lon : 142:29:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 888.9mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.3 7.2 7.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +13.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

03/2030 UTC 16.7N 143.1E T7.0/7.0 MELOR -- West Pacific

[CrazyC83]

03/2030 UTC 16.7N 143.1E T7.0/7.0 MELOR -- West Pacific

I know they can only go by 0.5 increments, but even that may be conservative (with that and past trends for similar storms, 150 kt seems more reasonable now IMO). Certainly should be a Super Typhoon at the next update though. If only the JMA or someone had Recon out there!

[Macrocane]

I agree about supertyphoon strength on the next JTWC warning, it looks very good and I think that some agency (especially JMA since it is the official agency) should have recon on WPAC, in fact all of the RSMC around the world should have it.

[P.K.]

The JMA's latest sat fix has just come in at T7.0 as well so the next advisory will be slightly higher than the current 100kts.

[CrazyC83]

Very lucky that this didn't strengthen 12-18 hours ago, or the Marianas would have been REALLY blasted...I sure wouldn't want to be there with winds between 160 and 175 mph on the doorstep!

[JTE50]

Visible already out:

Eye continuing to clear.

wow, what a beast. When typhoons go by you out here they just get stronger!!! Saipan very lucky looking at that westward jog the past 12 hours.

Where are you, JTE50? I would love to live in that part of the world - I'm completely fascinated by tropical cyclones.

i

I'm in Saipan typhoon chasing but I'm all over really.

[Macrocane]

IMO it looks better than Choi-wan in visible imagery, very symmetrical and with excellent outflow in all quadrants, certainly a beautiful storm.

[P.K.]

JTWC sat fix.

TPPN13 PGTW 040012

A. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR)

B. 03/2330Z

C. 16.6N

D. 142.3E

E. TWO/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 29NM WARM MEDIUM GRAY EYE
SURROUNDED BY WHITE CONVECTIVE RING YIELDS A 6.0 E#. 1.0 ADDED
FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT YIELDS A 7.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 7.5.
DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


SMITH

[CrazyC83]

Looks like JTWC will go 145 or 150 with that.

[CrazyC83]

IMO it looks better than Choi-wan in visible imagery, very symmetrical and with excellent outflow in all quadrants, certainly a beautiful storm.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks - No signs of an ERC either...definitely looks even better than Choi-wan did. Strongest storm in the world this year probably.

[P.K.]

WTPQ22 RJTD 040000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0918 MELOR (0918)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040000UTC 16.6N 142.3E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM NORTH 190NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 050000UTC 18.6N 136.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 060000UTC 22.0N 131.5E 140NM 70%
MOVE NW 14KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 070000UTC 25.9N 130.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =

[RattleMan]

Code: Select all

20W      MELOR 091004 0000  16.6N  142.3E WPAC  145   914

[ozonepete]

Yeah, who could argue with those numbers? The symmetry is just beautiful. You rarely ever see it like that.

Sure looks like it would be a cat 5 over here and must be a super typhoon now.

[ozonepete]

BTW, as rare as this is, it will be REALLY rare if PARMA were to drift eastward at all over the next few hours. You'll have two typhoons moving pretty much directly towards each other. More likely that PARMA will stay stationary or drift northwestward, but I can say for sure I've never seen two tropical cyclones moving towards each other along almost the same latitude.

[cycloneye]

0300z JTWC Warning=145kts



WTPN34 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.6N 139.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.7N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.6N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 23.3N 132.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.4N 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 36.4N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 38 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 45.0N 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 141.6E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A 30 NM WIDE,
CLOUD-FREE, VERY WELL-DEFINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW TO ALL
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
AROUND 14 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID TO UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z,
041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS
(WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Squarethecircle]

In retrospect, 145 knots may not have been such a bad intensity forecast, eh?



The WPAC certainly seems to be making up for lost time.

[breeze]

BTW, as rare as this is, it will be REALLY rare if PARMA were to drift eastward at all over the next few hours. You'll have two typhoons moving pretty much directly towards each other. More likely that PARMA will stay stationary or drift northwestward, but I can say for sure I've never seen two tropical cyclones moving towards each other along almost the same latitude.

I saw the forecast tracks on PARMA, ozonepete, and noted that the US and Taiwan tracks actually turned back eastward. Like you, I also wondered what would happen with the two systems moving at each other! This is definitely an interesting situation to follow.

[CrazyC83]

Strongest storm in the world in 2009 now - and the strongest since Hurricane Felix in 2007 in any basin (wind-wise).