Most intensity forecasts are pretty bad, which is why the NHC is concentrating on projects to improve them.
My point, and it wasn't meant as an attack, is that the season is still young and it's still early for a major hurricane, so any predictions of a strong storm are suspect, at least statistically.
In 2010 Hurricane Danielle, the first cat 4 of the season, was just moving off the coast of Africa. It developed into Tropical Depression Six near the Cape Verde Islands on August 21 (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_ ... %282010%29 ) Alex started 2010 as a very rare and early hurricane, but it was followed by 4 wimpy systems, more typical of activity early in the season.
So far 2012 is off to an early start, but it's normal for storms to struggle this time of year. We'll have to watch and see if conditions begin to improve, now that we are entering the heart of the year, or they continue to struggle.
Now back to Gordon, the presentation has continued to improve this afternoon. Maybe a run at Hurricane is not out of the question yet.
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