ATL: SANDY - Models

[sharoncapecod]

Been looking at alot of models and I'm concerned up here. I'm on Cape Cod and the Boston stations don't want to say too much. Should I be worried? Only one way off the island and it's only 2 lanes..

There is almost no chance of a total evacuation of Cape Cod, since much of it is at higher elevation. But prepare for a long period of 50-65 mph winds (higher gusts), rain and waves.

Thanks, First real storm since I moved here..

[bzukajo]

ROCK wrote:
ok where is my NYC surge map.... though this would not really apply so much with such a huge windfield in this storm

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 1202x778.



If New York City got such storm surge like that, they are in major trouble.

This NOAA Product was spot on with Irene last year in Rye. My father lives on the sound, and it had accurately predicted the surge to go right over the golf course. I certainly hope there is no Irene repeat here.

[weatherwindow]

Been looking at alot of models and I'm concerned up here. I'm on Cape Cod and the Boston stations don't want to say too much. Should I be worried? Only one way off the island and it's only 2 lanes..

There is almost no chance of a total evacuation of Cape Cod, since much of it is at higher elevation. But prepare for a long period of 50-65 mph winds (higher gusts), rain and waves.

sharon...the local nws office in taunton will provide timely updates and any evacuation info/links...they are already discussing the possibility of an impact by Sandy...just click on the link below and click the interactive map on the index page

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/index.php

[Dean4Storms]

Come on everyone, this is for models and model discussions. Can you please take the other stuff to the Storm Discussion thread???

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like GFS blinks first. The 00z runs of GFS and GGEM might be the proverbial nail in the coffin!

[sunnyday]

Dean4Storms, what do you mean about the nail in the coffin? Thanks for your response.

[DESTRUCTION5]

All lined up!! Changes now should be minimal for 72 hrs..

[JamesCaneTracker]

Dean4Storms, what do you mean about the nail in the coffin? Thanks for your response.

My take on it is that Soon the NHC will HAVE to start changing their Forecast Track if the Models continue to show it impacting the NorthEast... With the 18z run of the GFS it's starting to come onboard with the NorthEast Impact with a Direct landfall in Canada just East of Maine with the whole State of Maine feeling some Impacts from it.

[chaser1]

Looks like GFS blinks first. The 00z runs of GFS and GGEM might be the proverbial nail in the coffin!

Meaning?

As a side note, the NAM should be coming out prior to the GFS. Yes, I know the NAM is "not" a tropical model, however it has not only been consistant with Sandy, more importantly it is used as one of the standard models for mid latitude dynamics analysis and perhaps should not be entirely discounted. Furthermore, it may well have a handle on the steering elements that might well make a seemingly insignificant 200 correction based on minor detection of height rises/falls (no Boca, perhaps not 500 mile) to an extent that impact a forecast and likely conditions to a particular island or land mass.

[SFLcane]

Speaking of NAM...

[chaser1]

Dean4Storms, what do you mean about the nail in the coffin? Thanks for your response.

My take on it is that Soon the NHC will HAVE to start changing their Forecast Track if the Models continue to show it impacting the NorthEast... With the 18z run of the GFS it's starting to come onboard with the NorthEast Impact with a Direct landfall in Canada just East of Maine with the whole State of Maine feeling some Impacts from it.

For you folks up in the Northeast, I do believe that this will be an event that will directly impact you. End of the world? NO, Leave you guys without power until December, NO. However this well may prove to be a nasty coastal event and if tonights GFS verifies with this evenings 0Z Euro, Sandy might prove to be this years most "U.S." impacting hurricane.

[chaser1]

Speaking of NAM...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images ... LP_084.gif

Hey SFLcane, I figured the NAM was soon to come out. Since I havn't looked directly at it, how does it compare to the 12Z run? Hard to tell from that map which side of Andros Island Sandy is on. Either way though, close enough that any westward deviation "really" puts S. Fla. into a tailspin - if trends continue slightly westward, then "shutters up" here in S. Fla. come Thurs. a.m. (at least as a precaution anyways).

[SFLcane]

Speaking of NAM...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images ... LP_084.gif

Hey SFLcane, I figured the NAM was soon to come out. Since I havn't looked directly at it, how does it compare to the 12Z run? Hard to tell from that map which side of Andros Island Sandy is on. Either way though, close enough that any westward deviation "really" puts S. Fla. into a tailspin - if trends continue slightly westward, then "shutters up" here in S. Fla. come Thurs. a.m. (at least as a precaution anyways).

Hey chaser1..that was the 18z run. I think watches are a given and maybe even TS warnings for sfl given the expansion of the windfield.

edit..thought i was seeing things with sandy as she appears stacked which has been diffifcult to find this season. Recon shows a developing eyewall even though its a ragged for the moment. should be a cane come morning.

[WYNweather]

Speaking of NAM...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images ... LP_084.gif

Hey SFLcane, I figured the NAM was soon to come out. Since I havn't looked directly at it, how does it compare to the 12Z run? Hard to tell from that map which side of Andros Island Sandy is on. Either way though, close enough that any westward deviation "really" puts S. Fla. into a tailspin - if trends continue slightly westward, then "shutters up" here in S. Fla. come Thurs. a.m. (at least as a precaution anyways).

Would agree day 3 GFS http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/3d/gfs_700_3d.gif looks like a lot of wind. I am beach side pompano. Glad it was not last week. Tides were 7 inches from top of seawall.

[floridasun78]

Speaking of NAM...

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images ... LP_084.gif]

were can i see nam models at? one you have

[SFLcane]

floridasun78... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/

[chaser1]

Speaking of NAM...

Would agree day 3 GFS http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfs/3d/gfs_700_3d.gif looks like a lot of wind. I am beach side pompano. Glad it was not last week. Tides were 7 inches from top of seawall.

Well, I was going to "park myself" with a camera and a few beer on the coast in Key Largo to watch Sandy spit some wind at S. Florida. I think you may be in a better position in Pompano Beach perhaps to get a bit more wind, at least on the projected track. Maybe if things get real dull down in Largo, perhaps some of us S2K locals might have to meet on the pier up there!

Oh, here is the main home page where I access the NAM, GFS, or RUC models (you may have to cut and paste): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... &prevArea=

[JamesCaneTracker]

Dean4Storms, what do you mean about the nail in the coffin? Thanks for your response.

My take on it is that Soon the NHC will HAVE to start changing their Forecast Track if the Models continue to show it impacting the NorthEast... With the 18z run of the GFS it's starting to come onboard with the NorthEast Impact with a Direct landfall in Canada just East of Maine with the whole State of Maine feeling some Impacts from it.

For you folks up in the Northeast, I do believe that this will be an event that will directly impact you. End of the world? NO, Leave you guys without power until December, NO. However this well may prove to be a nasty coastal event and if tonights GFS verifies with this evenings 0Z Euro, Sandy might prove to be this years most "U.S." impacting hurricane.

If we are impacted by Sandy up here in Maine then this will have to go down in the records as one of the Most active months here for Natural Disaster type events... First the Strongest EarthQuake to hit Southern Maine and then this... lol sure has been a memorable month that's for sure! lol

[WYNweather]

Thanks for the link. You More then welcome up here will be having a few adult beverages myself. Will be watching bunch of 7 figure yachts try not to touch each other at the show on Friday.

[floridasun78]

floridasun78... http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/

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