ATL: ANDREA - Post-Tropical

[Dean4Storms]

Noting a low level circulation this morning near 89.5W/24.5N

[tolakram]

Latest MIMIC-TPW loop shows circulation off the tip of the Yucatan.

Saved image: http://imageshack.us/a/img209/1714/zzmi ... t72hrs.gif

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west pic.twitter.com/fLyFYuUMwY

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

[Dean4Storms]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west pic.twitter.com/fLyFYuUMwY

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

That's the one I'm seeing. Clear spin and at low level.

[cycloneye]

12z Best track coincides with JB.

AL, 91, 2013060412, , BEST, 0, 243N, 893W, 25, 1009, DB

[tolakram]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 8m
Low level circulation may be starting near 25 north and 89.5 west pic.twitter.com/fLyFYuUMwY

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi

It's the area just below the westward moving spiral. If he's right then that spiral, if it holds together, should start moving SW ans then S around the larger center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[jlauderdal]

Here is the GFS shear forecast over the next 72 hrs, it shows shear to diminish Wednesday and early Thursday ahead of the next trough of low pressure but as the low merges with the trough for it to acquire more of subtropical or extratropical entitiy.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 6842fd.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 9ddfbb.png
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 2c60e1.png

impending doom for whatever develops

[jlauderdal]

With respect to the current substantial shear, modelling earlier in the week, particularly the GFS and Euro, were suggesting that the shear would ease as the front/trough along the Gulf coast lifted to the Northeast. Is that solution still in the cards or will the shear r
remain? Any comment from the pros or the ams?...Rich
PS...The Lower Keys will need kayaks soon if the rain persists:)
PPS....Front Street in Key West was under 2' of water at high tide last nite

front street has been flooded twice already in the past month, we are having trouble getting anything significant going in SE Florida, dynamics are crappy for anything to get going, severe looks totally really unlikely for today and rain totals look meager, lets see what tomorrow brings

[tropicwatch]

The model plots came together pretty quickly on this one. Now all they need to do is shift a little further west I know I am being a little selfish but we need rain.

[wzrgirl1]

Why Jlauderdale? Because of dry air? Confused.....

[N2FSU]

Greetings from a wet Cozumel. Just pulling into port on the Carnival Paradise. Heavy rain right now with pretty gusty winds and low ceilings. Looks like a drinking day!

[Dean4Storms]

Greetings from a wet Cozumel. Just pulling into port on the Carnival Paradise. Heavy rain right now with pretty gusty winds and low ceilings. Looks like a drinking day!

Tequila flows like water down there!

[wxman57]

I don't think that the swirl near 24.5N/89.5W is the place to look for development. I saw 2-3 such swirls yesterday, all rotating around a broad area of low pressure. Follow the convection - that's where any low will form (not the other way around).

[NDG]

Looking at the water vapor loop this morning you can tell that the mid and upper level conditions are starting to change a little bit.

[N2Storms]

[quote="panamatropicwatch"]The model plots came together pretty quickly on this one. Now all they need to do is shift a little further west I know I am being a little selfish but we need rain.[/quote]


PTW. I've all but given up on this one...it looks like we are destined to be on the dry side of this one. Maybe we'll be able to get a good shower or two out of it. Anything would be better than nothing.

[wzrgirl1]

Looking at the water vapor loop this morning you can tell that the mid and upper level conditions are starting to change a little bit.

Please be more specific. For the worse or for the better in terms of development?

[NDG]

I don't think that the swirl near 24.5N/89.5W is the place to look for development. I saw 2-3 such swirls yesterday, all rotating around a broad area of low pressure. Follow the convection - that's where any low will form (not the other way around).

Yeah, I agree, it appears to be more like an eddy drifting away from a broader circulation near the Yucatan Peninsula.

[NDG]

Looking at the water vapor loop this morning you can tell that the mid and upper level conditions are starting to change a little bit.

Please be more specific. For the worse or for the better in terms of development?

For the better of development. Latest shear map shows near 20 knots across the eastern GOM when yesterday was closer to 30 knots.

[TexasF6]

Has Aric Dunn made any synopsis this morning? WXman57 is spot on with the ejecting vorts, but the convection may have only a mid-level circ, if anything...my eyes may be playing tricks on me with only one cup of joe thusfar! GM folks!

[jlauderdal]

Greetings from a wet Cozumel. Just pulling into port on the Carnival Paradise. Heavy rain right now with pretty gusty winds and low ceilings. Looks like a drinking day!

if you are on a carnival cruise you have much bigger concerns then a tropical system,