Central Caribbean Wave (Gulf Development?) (Is Invest 92L)

[ninel conde]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2013081212/namconus_z850_vort_us.html

the NAM at 84hrs sends the disturbance into the meat of the Yucatan. BOC if you extrap it out. Probably miss the connection with the trof.

eastern US is soaked from non stop rain. i hope it heads west. we dont need massive flooding.

[Hurricaneman]

Track wise if it goes as modeled by the GFS, its heading for Pensacola but if the ridge nudges a little farther west then Texas to New Orleans could get this but if the ridge is a little farther east than modeled then the Florida Peninsula may have to deal with this. Its really all about the position of the ridge\trough in 5 days

As for intensity, an eastern gulf system IMO has a better chance so if its as modeled or even over the Peninsula this has potential get up to the 80mph range but a western Gulf solution would probably be a more sheared system so more of a 60mph system if it should head over there so a lot of uncertainties with track and strength still but if another storm from last year told us anything is that the GFS was the standard in track with that system and very well could be the best solution with the current and progged position of the ridge\trough

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

One thing to watch for here is where the center actually consolidates in the NW Caribbean. If it consolidates a bit more north or east, then it could start its recurve further east and become an Eastern Gulf/Florida problem. If the center consolidates further south or west, the recurve path would bring it more west in the Central GOM. Also the strength of the system will determine which layer of steering steers the system. Looking at the projected steering from the GFS, a deeper system in the NW Caribbean would tend to start recurving a bit sooner. A shallow system could head more west through the Yucatan and into the BOC or Western GOM missing the connection with the trough.

As for shear being high in the GOM comments I am seeing, not too sure about that as we are in mid-August and shear is something that is tough for models to forecast in advance. Not only that but shear caused by fronts have shown they can actually strengthen systems as well if other factors in the environment such as SSTs are excellent (e.g. Wilma, 2005)

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

cycloneye adds the S2k Disclaimer

[ROCK]

12Z NAVGEM at 72hrs. difference from the 6Z is this is farther up the Yucatan....so far...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

[Sanibel]

Some gelling but still dry-pocketed and sheared. The season is starting to force the issue. Slight hint of a twist in the Colombia disturbance.

[ROCK]

108hr NAVGEM goes from BOC to NGOM in one run. Sheared weak system as with the other models.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HouTXmetro]

If this develops, the NAVGEM deserves some credit as the first to sniff this out.

[ROCK]

12Z CMC is rolling in....12Hrs...lets see if it has 2 lows like last run...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_3.png

[Rgv20]

12zNAVGEM has a very weak system heading to the Northern Gulf Coast.....I see 2 possible track scenarios so far....Northern Gulf Coast or West toward Veracruz or Tampico area.



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[Rgv20]

12zCMC same as the GFS, a TC in the Florida Panhandle area this Saturday.



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[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANGE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[ROCK]

wow...only a 20% chance in 5 days....that doesnt seem confident. Not sure why RECON was even scheduled unless to cya....

12Z NAM at 84 hrs

TW approaching the Yucatan but not very organized. Very broad 1012MB...but its the NAM

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

[Rgv20]

12zNAM has a well organize TC at 84hr over Belize..Its the long range NAM tho only for entertainment purposes!



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[ROCK]

Nice map RGV...I dont have that one....


12Z EURO is rolling....out 12hrs

[wxman57]

wow...only a 20% chance in 5 days....that doesn't seem confident. Not sure why RECON was even scheduled unless to cya....

12Z NAM at 84 hrs

TW approaching the Yucatan but not very organized. Very broad 1012MB...but its the NAM

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Seems the NHC isn't going to go with a higher chance of development based solely on model projections before the disturbance consolidates. I thought they would at least go 30-40% by now, though I think chances are greater than that of a named storm within 120 hrs.

[Tireman4]

Seems the NHC isn't going to go with a higher chance of development based solely on model projections before the disturbance consolidates. I thought they would at least go 30-40% by now, though I think chances are greater than that of a named storm within 120 hrs.

I do wonder if we (Upper Texas Coast) will get anything from this...the thinking is........?

[HouTXmetro]

Tireman, nothing at this time suggest that. Seems to be Northern GOM or a Mexico issue.

[ROCK]

so far the 12Z EURO out 48hrs doesnt show much of anything.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=048

[wxman57]

Seems the NHC isn't going to go with a higher chance of development based solely on model projections before the disturbance consolidates. I thought they would at least go 30-40% by now, though I think chances are greater than that of a named storm within 120 hrs.

I do wonder if we (Upper Texas Coast) will get anything from this...the thinking is........?

Nope. NW-W winds aloft across Texas should keep any effects well to our east.

[tropicwatch]

I think they will start raising the five day percentage as long as conditions become more conducive and Saturday becomes within five days. I would look for the increase in percentage possibly tonight.