2014 WPAC Season

[Meow]

Despite 93W, another tropical storm may form southwest of Taiwan in four days.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This disturbance looks quite impressive, located W of Ilocos Region, close to the Northwestern tip of the Philippine Island of Luzon. Has good outflow and organization over an area of very WARM sea surface temperatures, but, on a small area of low Vertical Wind Shear. Strong Vorticity over the system could help it develop.



Well despite that, a trough to its NE would bring a NE-ward track, over less favorable conditions; it will move towards an area of higher Vertical Wind Shear, higher pressures, and cooler sea surface temperatures.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Well way down south, an area full of tropical waves give me interest. The area is full of very low vertical wind shear, associated with a weak anticyclone N and NW of the systems. SSTs are also very favorable, but, it is over a region of lower-than-normal atmospheric instability, and only very weak steering.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS expects a strong tropical storm or possibly a typhoon to develop over the SCS this week, then eventually followed by at least 2 tropical storms. GFS is so bullish right now, because of the lower shear and higher SSTs over there. Let's see if this will really be the scenario.

[euro6208]

increasing potential.

[Meow]

Actually, the strong vorticity is located near Taiwan, which is making landfall and merging with 93W. According to some forecasting, 93W will become an extratropical cyclone, which will link with a stationary front. Soon, the southwest part will be cut off in the South China Sea and eventually become a tropical storm near Friday.

[euro6208]

June 8



Jun 11



Jun 15



Jun 17



Jun 20



Jun 24




I would like to share this from another website through 384 hours out...

MJO about to enter the West Pacific and strengthens it there with little to no movement through possibly early July meaning the WPAC
could see a very active few weeks ahead...

[euro6208]

108 hours...

06Z showing another tropical storm to follow right behind Invest 94W (Not yet classifed) that makes landfall over taiwan and veered off to thr northeast and dumps heavy rains over okinawa and southern japan.



186 hours...

Weak short lived TD/TS in the Northern south china sea...



384 hours...

Possible TD/TS in the Philippine Sea. This is right in the middle of that massive MJO event that will pass through our area as seen from the previous post so I wouldn't be surprised if this is our next big one.

[euro6208]

06Z still showing 3 tropical cyclone formations over the next few days, 2 develops in the south china sea with one of them impacting taiwan while the 3rd one slowly develops in the philippine sea...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS consistent with a strong TS or weak TY over the North part of the SCS.



Meanwhile, the ECMWF does not develop anything at TD strength or stronger. However, the CMC/GEM develops a weak tropical storm over the same area the GFS hints development.

[Meow]

GFS consistent with a strong TS or weak TY over the North part of the SCS.

Too small to even see a cyclone...

[Steve820]

Looks like the WPac could get a burst of activity in the coming week. After being inactive since Tapah in late-April, we could finally get a couple named storms in the coming week or so. It would be awesome to finally get some new named storms in that basin! I've been waiting for a month already!

[euro6208]

The large area of disturbed weather in the South China Sea is what GFS is developing. It might take a while due to very strong shear but once it lessens, we could see faster development...

[Meow]

The large area of disturbed weather in the South China Sea is what GFS is developing. It might take a while due to very strong shear but once it lessens, we could see faster development...

It is now 95W.

[euro6208]

Last update, 0Z, had Subtropical Storm 94W with 45 knots winds. That's 0.9325 ACE so far bringing season total to 12.475

Normal Year to date is 31...

We need one long tracking typhoon if we want to catch up...

http://policlimate.com/tropical/

[Meow]

We just said goodbye to Tropical Storm Mitag. Will there be Hagibis soon?

[euro6208]

0Z GFS no longer showing 95 to develop but develops another low pressure system right behind it but doesn't develop it much until it reaches taiwan...Most likely a series of fronts...

Let's see what happens...

[euro6208]

Tropical Storm Risk on May 6 calls for:

27 Tropical Storms
17 Typhoons
11 Intense Typhoons (Major)
ACE of 375

TSR predicts the 2014 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will be the most active since 2004,
with activity approximately 25% above the 1965-2013 climate norm.

https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/





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Accuweather releases their forecast for June 12:

2014 Typhoon Forecast: Another Active Season for West Pacific.

28 Tropical Storms
18 Typhoons
5 Super Typhoons (130 Knots or higher)

West Pacific Typhoon Season Key Points:

1. AccuWeather.com is predicting a near-normal typhoon season.
2. The onset of El Niño will give tropical storms a better chance for development.
3. While China, Taiwan and the Philippines will be impacted this year, Japan may experience more storms than the 2013 season.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2014-west-pacific-typhoon-forecast/28038213

[euro6208]

Looking like a very active season ahead as suggested by accuweather. New update from Tropicalstormrisk will be released on July 7th...

I am really excited to start tracking our typhoons over here which will be amplified even more by an el nino but hoping for no damage and casualties...

[euro6208]

Latest GFS and EURO showing a relatively quiet pattern over the next few days

All the energy is in the EPAC at this moment ...