ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[NCSTORMMAN]

It has that comma look to it now. Sure looks like it is strengthening.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[jlauderdal]

GFS pressure projections show a ridge building west for the next ten days with a significant high over the Miss/Ala area at day ten. I assume that will block anything coming through in the Car. toward a turn to the North. I believe a very early run by the Euro projected a trip to the far west Gulf near the Texas/Mexico Border.

Of course this is very early speculation at best.

This post is my opinion only and reflects the thinking of a complete novice regarding meteorlogical matters.

very rare to have them run that far...not only does the ridge have to be in place but the storm has to survive and this one is going to head right into the carib shredder in a strong el nino...good luck making it all the way as a named system

[tolakram]

My take is that the formation looks shockingly good this early, clear banding with what looks to be a core already trying to form. I'm not sure it means anything at all but early on this sure looks good.

[SeminoleWind]

It has that comma look to it now. Sure looks like it is strengthening.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

WOW!! i haven't gotten a real good look at it yet today. It sure looks like a TS

[RL3AO]

A very healthy looking TC this afternoon. If it can stay in a low shear environment, the dry air won't impact it that much.

[gatorcane]

Off topic: 12Z GFS has a monster system in the 12Z run barreling west and through the Leewards and into Puerto Rico in the long-range (another system). So this may be one-two punch unfolding here for the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Will post image in models thread.

What El Nino?

[Yellow Evan]

Doing Dvorak here, DT to me is at least 3.0.

[Alyono]

Off topic: 12Z GFS has a monster system in the 12Z run barreling west and through the Leewards and into Puerto Rico in the long-range (another system). So this may be one-two punch unfolding here for the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Will post image in models thread.

What El Nino?

well... the el niño is transitioning toward a Modoki. The Niño 1&2 are cooling right now, while the western regions are warming

[NCSTORMMAN]

Doing Dvorak here, DT to me is at least 3.0.

Which puts it at where intensity wise?

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 AUG 2015 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 10:40:26 N Lon : 36:48:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1013.0mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.4 2.5

Center Temp : -53.0C Cloud Region Temp : -47.2C

[Alyono]

Doing Dvorak here, DT to me is at least 3.0.

way too high. Thinking 2.0 right now, maybe you could stretch a 2.5 out of it

[Yellow Evan]

Doing Dvorak here, DT to me is at least 3.0.

Which puts it at where intensity wise?

45 knts. 2.0 is 30 knts. 2.5 is 35 knts.

Note: I'm only an amateur.

[tolakram]

From the FTP site.

16:15Z

[Yellow Evan]

Off topic: 12Z GFS has a monster system in the 12Z run barreling west and through the Leewards and into Puerto Rico in the long-range (another system). So this may be one-two punch unfolding here for the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Will post image in models thread.

What El Nino?

2009 got busy like this for a strethc. So did 2006 and 2002. This happens when MJO is in the dead circle sometimes.

[tolakram]

It has a ways to go.

[Nimbus]

Guess I was wrong on thinking NHC would keep it a T.S. throughout. Wow NHC is going strong at the end forecasting steady intensification to a hurricane

120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH

There was some dry air intrusion this morning but obviously worked most of that out with a good circulation.
The shear forecast of ~5 knots is apparently the key the models are running with for continued development past cat 1 before the islands..

Although currently gaining latitude Danny gets trapped by the ridging and becomes a Caribbean runner.
Current upper air analysis drifts the high back west later in the forecast.

WXman57 should have some interesting input soon, I'm headed out to buy gasoline.

[Ntxw]

Off topic: 12Z GFS has a monster system in the 12Z run barreling west and through the Leewards and into Puerto Rico in the long-range (another system). So this may be one-two punch unfolding here for the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Will post image in models thread.

What El Nino?

2009 got busy like this for a strethc. So did 2006 and 2002. This happens when MJO is in the dead circle sometimes.

And don't forget healthy Kelvin waves! It came from the EPAC, week 2 though it will be the opposite. Easily the best KW of the season in tandem.

[Alyono]

Off topic: 12Z GFS has a monster system in the 12Z run barreling west and through the Leewards and into Puerto Rico in the long-range (another system). So this may be one-two punch unfolding here for the Leewards and Puerto Rico. Will post image in models thread.

What El Nino?

2009 got busy like this for a strethc. So did 2006 and 2002. This happens when MJO is in the dead circle sometimes.

And don't forget healthy Kelvin waves! It came from the EPAC, week 2 though it will be the opposite. Easily the best KW of the season in tandem.

lets not forget the cooler EPAC as well with the very hot CPAC

[LarryWx]

This happens when MJO is in the dead circle sometimes.

Related to this for Sep.: For just the four Ninos since 1976 that were +1.0 C+ in Nino 3.4 during Sep. (1982, 1987, 1997, and 2002), 14 of the 15 Sep TC geneses (for those that later became TS+ strength) were when the MJO was within the circle. Being within the circle during Sept. is actually a positive indicator at least for strong Nino's.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, at least we can safely say this is the most interesting system to watch yet! LOL. The important thing to me is that unlike many other disappointing waves, this one is not hauling across the Atlantic at 20-25 mph+. That happened to many waves in the last two years, causing them to die out. Four is moving at a much more normal speed, so could easily avoid that same fate.