2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[dexterlabio]

Looks more of an east based El-Nino to me. But these climate models have been pretty bad to date.

Not west-based? Seems like the warmest region is CPAC, not EPAC, although Nino 1+2 is also warm.

[Kingarabian]

Looks more of an east based El-Nino to me. But these climate models have been pretty bad to date.

Not west-based? Seems like the warmest region is CPAC, not EPAC, although Nino 1+2 is also warm.

It's fine if its warm to the west. The values of the regions to the east do not have to surpass the ones in the west for it to be a traditional Nino. They just need to be warm.
Nino 3.4 is the second most western region and we use it to guage if we're in an El-Nino or not and it typically is the highest of all.

A typical Modoki Nino:

[TheStormExpert]

Here's a link showing what one should look for in regards to a Modoki El Niño as opposed to a Traditional El Niño event.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

Also here's a map of the different Niño regions just for reference.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks more of an east based El-Nino to me. But these climate models have been pretty bad to date.

Not west-based? Seems like the warmest region is CPAC, not EPAC, although Nino 1+2 is also warm.

Warmest waters seem to be from 120W-150W. Counts as eastern pacific in my book.

[Kingarabian]

What the Canadian is showing is an eastern event. It could eventually evolve into something different like 2009.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/861593493801775105

[Ntxw]

Looks more of an east based El-Nino to me. But these climate models have been pretty bad to date.

Not west-based? Seems like the warmest region is CPAC, not EPAC, although Nino 1+2 is also warm.

It's fine if its warm to the west. The values of the regions to the east do not have to surpass the ones in the west for it to be a traditional Nino. They just need to be warm.
Nino 3.4 is the second most western region and we use it to guage if we're in an El-Nino or not and it typically is the highest of all.

A typical Modoki Nino:

This map needs to be better understood. A modoki by the terms of the author is more than where it is warm. By true definition, the walker circulation or convection needs to be centered over the dateline or close by and sinking motion at Nino 3 and 1+2. If its all warm and above 28C convection blossoms all over and defeats the purpose of modoki which is to center it westward. So if you are looking for a 2004 type modoki, Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 better get into Nina levels or close to it.

During the 2004 Nino event much of late spring and summer Nino 1.2 was often -1C or lower which in a traditional Nina thats almost a moderate Nina while the warm Nino was way west at Nino 4.

Again emphasis needs to be where is the walker circulation and where is 28C threshold. The rest falls as dominos into the pattern

[Alyono]

BIG change in the EC. No longer going for substantially higher pressures over the Atlantic. Instead, pressure and precip are near normal

[cycloneye]

Yikes! It will be released to public on the 15th.

[AutoPenalti]

Oh boy.

[weathaguyry]

BIG change in the EC. No longer going for substantially higher pressures over the Atlantic. Instead, pressure and precip are near normal

That is VERY scary considering the large bias that the EC has

[tolakram]

BIG change in the EC. No longer going for substantially higher pressures over the Atlantic. Instead, pressure and precip are near normal

Pardon my ignorance but is this with the new update (is there one) or the old one?

Personally I'm still not sure we have any trends yet, only the typical May correction of the nino forecast.

[Alyono]

BIG change in the EC. No longer going for substantially higher pressures over the Atlantic. Instead, pressure and precip are near normal

Pardon my ignorance but is this with the new update (is there one) or the old one?

Personally I'm still not sure we have any trends yet, only the typical May correction of the nino forecast.

the May update. Just came out today on the non public site

[Hurricaneman]

BIG change in the EC. No longer going for substantially higher pressures over the Atlantic. Instead, pressure and precip are near normal

I'm thinking now we are going to have a big hurricane season but this is where the tracks will be important

[Hammy]

BIG change in the EC. No longer going for substantially higher pressures over the Atlantic. Instead, pressure and precip are near normal

What's the situation with regards to possible Nino?

[tolakram]

the May update. Just came out today on the non public site

Sorry, I meant the new update (version) to the model. I know there's one due in June but I'm unsure if this applies to all the products or just the 10 day.

[blp]

Well I can't say I am surprised by the Euro forecast. The trend was pointing to a more muted El Niño event. I am interested to see the graphic when it comes out because I can't remember last time Euro showed near normal pressure readings.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/861629091816116225




Image copy:

[cycloneye]

I can see the experts (CSU,TSR,JB) raising their numbers a little bit when their outlooks come out in the next few weeks.

[TheStormExpert]

Part of me is surprised and part of me isn't.

I'm surprised at how quickly things have changed in just one month, and this just goes to show you that the indicators before May mean very little to almost nothing as just like we see here things can change on a dime!

What doesn't surprise me is that I felt the Euro was overdoing the higher pressures and lower precipitation. I mean we had our first Cat.5 in over nine years located in the extreme Southern Part of the Eastern Caribbean in October last year. This tells me that conditions and pressure had to have been quite favorable.

All in all something tells me(and has been) that this season could be a just as active or even more active than last.

Now the big question is where will the bulk of the storms track this year? Will we see an active Cape Verde season allowing storms to recurve instantly before affecting land, or will things wait to get going until further west just like in 2005 greatly enhancing the chances of land impacts?

My last question is when you say near normal Alyono does this mean slightly above normal pressures and slightly below normal precipitation or the opposite?