ATL: IRMA - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is there a reason we are already seeing so much activity this year? Is it cause El Nino came and went? Warmer waters? I am just curious on opinions,.

Favorable SST's, cold neutral pattern forming (La Nada), favorable MJO/Kelvin Waves, not too much sheer when the TUTT isn't around, strong waves, etc....

[chaser1]

On this run, the storm striking Louisiana quickly weakens with the 500mb ridge seemingly strengthening north of Irma and bridging underneath the Great Lakes trough - Yikes! I'm guessing we'll see the 240 hr. forecast to show the primary trough energy beginning to pull up with the ridge poking in and further west. I'd assume Irma will actually begin to tilt more WNW to westward. Lets home this doesn't play out.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro @240hrs.

[floridasun78]

Is there a reason we are already seeing so much activity this year? Is it cause El Nino came and went? Warmer waters? I am just curious on opinions,.

not here yet we between El Niña and la Niña

[AutoPenalti]

12z Euro @192hrs.

May I ask what the difference is between the MSLP anomaly, 500mb and the 500mb normalized anomaly?

MSLP anomaly is mainly for seeing what the ocean pressures are, if they are decreasing or increasing, storm intensity, and if they are above or below normal in a certain area.
500mb normalized anomaly is for depicting the strength of ridges and troughs, which can help us determine where a system is going to go due to since those features steer the cyclones.

So then why does ridiging look a bit different from the normalized one vs the basic? Is it because they are using the multi-year averages?

[sma10]

:eek: On this run, the storm striking Louisiana quickly weakens with the 500mb ridge seemingly strengthening north of Irma and bridging underneath the Great Lakes trough - Yikes! I'm guessing we'll see the 240 hr. forecast to show the primary trough energy beginning to pull up with the ridge poking in and further west. I'd assume Irma will actually begin to tilt more WNW to westward. Lets home this doesn't play out.

Actually looks like in this version of the run, the trough may be winning out, pushing the ridge aside. Looks like a complex setup - and this is at 10 days yet. Lots of watching and waiting.

[chaser1]

Close call for the Carolina's?? Too early to say for sure. Does look like the trough while pulling out, still degrades enough of the ridge to (hopefully) spare the Bahamas and Florida. Here's where it'll come down to timing and details. Things too early to know either way quite yet.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Magic trap door appears to be open (for now)

[SouthFLTropics]

Ah, the Euro is like an episode of a good TV drama...Leaves the CONUS hanging at hour 240 to wait till the next episode at 00z to see what happens.

[sma10]

Magic trap door appears to be open (for now)

If we were 2 days out, I'd be more optimistic about magic doors.

[chaser1]

Overall take-away from this a.m' EURO and GFS run....... GFS says weaker verses the EURO going a little stronger! Both models show mid to late range forecast to build the heights over the W. Atlantic with time. Biggest question now might be whether the deep trough in the Midwest verifies, digs further west or east, and the added variably of another GOM storm entering the equation toward the end of the cycle

[chaser1]

Magic trap door appears to be open (for now)

If we were 2 days out, I'd be more optimistic about magic doors.

No "magic doors", just science

[meriland29]

Ah, the Euro is like an episode of a good TV drama...Leaves the CONUS hanging at hour 240 to wait till the next episode at 00z to see what happens.

True story. Also curious how GFS will play this out. Complete opposites atm.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Don't know if this was posted but the CMC ends it's run with the trough stalling/slightly retrograding

[Siker]

Ah the magic trap door which has kept the US major hurricane free for nearly 4 days...

[AutoPenalti]

Ah the magic trap door which has kept the US major hurricane free for 4 days...

Looks like our streak may end again.

[SouthFLTropics]

Ah the magic trap door which has kept the US major hurricane free for nearly 4 days...

Many jokes are made tongue in cheek about the magic trap door. It is true that "it" (trap door/trough/eroding ridge) has saved the CONUS, and in particular Florida, from many strikes in the past. However, it should be noted that the devil is in the details. What might save you in September can hurt you in October when a storm sets up in the Western Caribbean.

[hurricaneCW]

That's a dangerous setup for the east coast, you want to root for a weaker trough to kick the storm OTS, not what the Euro shows.

That's almost an ideal setup for potential Irma to shoot straight up the coast.

[floridasun78]

Close call for the Carolina's?? Too early to say for sure. Does look like the trough while pulling out, still degrades enough of the ridge to (hopefully) spare the Bahamas and Florida. Here's where it'll come down to timing and details. Things too early to know either way quite yet.

240 hour long time let how it all work out

[RL3AO]

The trough being so strong is why the downstream ridge is so strong which is why it can get so far west in the model.