ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[srainhoutx]

NHC is working FIVE at once?

They worked 7 at once in 1971...

[Mialco]

likely to be a hurricane by morning ( or earlier ) and then just start dropping ...

Hi everyone... we in Barbados are of course monitoring Maria very closely. Aric - what do you mean by 'just start dropping'?

pressure.. meaning intensifying rapidly..

Oh ok... I'm glad you didn't mean dropping latitude... although dropping pressure isn't great either

[johngaltfla]

I wanted to take this moment to say to our neighbors down in the Northeast Caribbean Islands that my thoughts and prayers are completely with you, as once again another natural disaster is staring down the region. I am sure everyone on this forum shares my sentiments as well. God Speed to everyone with their preparations in the region and please be safe!!!!

yes, fortunately we arent look at cat 5 irma rolling through there but plenty of intensity to cause problems, be prepared for at least 5 days and secure your property as best you can...3 days supply isnt enough and emergency managers and media need to stop it with the 3 day, its 5 day minimum with gas for the generator, food and most importantly water....its discouraging to see people in the united states complaing on day two they dont have gas for their car and the store isnt open...its absurd and there needs to be a change in thinking in this country..i understand if you dont have cash for five days of fuel for the generator but in most cases you can go without the generator..one thing you cant go without is water, no exceptions..be smart, be prepared and defend yourself against these storms..most people on this board get it..also help your neighbors with preps and check on them after...we had mutliple people die in a nursing home due to heat which is a tragedy and embarrassing considering the resources in the united states, we must do better

im ranting but its embarrassing as a citizen f this country this stuff goes on

One day after the season is over, I'll rant about my "un-prepared" neighbors. In the mean time, it's getting to be that time to buckle up our chin straps again if any of the models showing a building high pressure ridge pushing this towards Florida verify in the next 72 hours.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/909161117490012160

[Aric Dunn]

I wanted to take this moment to say to our neighbors down in the Northeast Caribbean Islands that my thoughts and prayers are completely with you, as once again another natural disaster is staring down the region. I am sure everyone on this forum shares my sentiments as well. God Speed to everyone with their preparations in the region and please be safe!!!!

yes, fortunately we arent look at cat 5 irma rolling through there but plenty of intensity to cause problems, be prepared for at least 5 days and secure your property as best you can...3 days supply isnt enough and emergency managers and media need to stop it with the 3 day, its 5 day minimum with gas for the generator, food and most importantly water....its discouraging to see people in the united states complaing on day two they dont have gas for their car and the store isnt open...its absurd and there needs to be a change in thinking in this country..i understand if you dont have cash for five days of fuel for the generator but in most cases you can go without the generator..one thing you cant go without is water, no exceptions..be smart, be prepared and defend yourself against these storms..most people on this board get it..also help your neighbors with preps and check on them after...we had mutliple people die in a nursing home due to heat which is a tragedy and embarrassing considering the resources in the united states, we must do better

im ranting but its embarrassing as a citizen f this country this stuff goes on

One day after the season is over, I'll rant about my "un-prepared" neighbors. In the mean time, it's getting to be that time to buckle up our chin straps again if any of the models showing a building high pressure ridge pushing this towards Florida verify in the next 72 hours.

They all have a building high pressure.. but they also have a upper lever feature in the gulf that turns it north. just have to watch that upper level feature to see if it cuts off earlier or is weaker then staying WNW through florida is quite possible.

Or maria becomes much weaker from going or DR then it would likely stay more west as it wont be vertically as deep so wont be steered by the upper levle feature.

[Aric Dunn]

The NASA site is up finally !!!!!!!!

clearly you can see the proto eyewal forming ring of convection all around it now

[northjaxpro]

yes, fortunately we arent look at cat 5 irma rolling through there but plenty of intensity to cause problems, be prepared for at least 5 days and secure your property as best you can...3 days supply isnt enough and emergency managers and media need to stop it with the 3 day, its 5 day minimum with gas for the generator, food and most importantly water....its discouraging to see people in the united states complaing on day two they dont have gas for their car and the store isnt open...its absurd and there needs to be a change in thinking in this country..i understand if you dont have cash for five days of fuel for the generator but in most cases you can go without the generator..one thing you cant go without is water, no exceptions..be smart, be prepared and defend yourself against these storms..most people on this board get it..also help your neighbors with preps and check on them after...we had mutliple people die in a nursing home due to heat which is a tragedy and embarrassing considering the resources in the united states, we must do better

im ranting but its embarrassing as a citizen f this country this stuff goes on

One day after the season is over, I'll rant about my "un-prepared" neighbors. In the mean time, it's getting to be that time to buckle up our chin straps again if any of the models showing a building high pressure ridge pushing this towards Florida verify in the next 72 hours.

They all have a building high pressure.. but they also have a upper lever feature in the gulf that turns it north. just have to watch that upper level feature to see if it cuts off earlier or is weaker then staying WNW through florida is quite possible.

Or maria becomes much weaker from going or DR then it would likely stay more west as it wont be vertically as deep so wont be steered by the upper levle feature.

Yeah, I am extremely concerned about Maria possibly affecting us here in Florida, but I will really concentrate on that after this weekend into early next week. I am just atm so heavily thinking of our neighbors in the Caribbean. God be with them!!

[GCANE]

This is way south of the forecast points and looks to be heading straight west.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 161445.jpg

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is rediculous. This season. I will not be in a position to help with relief efforts, unfortunately, but I will continue to convey opinions and observations on here...maybe I can help someone that way.

[Aric Dunn]

The convection building around the eyewall is clearer here.. nice little ring developing.

could be approaching hurricane by 11pm.. maybe 2am if this keeps up.

[SouthDadeFish]

To be quite honest, this really doesn't look good for the Antilles.... Residents within the cone should be immediately preparing for potential hurricane impacts. I wouldn't be surprised if Maria is a hurricane by tomorrow morning at this rate. SHIPS-RII is calling for a 48% chance of a 25 kt intensity increase in 24 h. That would bring Maria to hurricane strength. I would like to see a more recent microwave pass. If the 37-GHz cyan ring has contracted, then I think all systems are go for RI. As of now, the ring was a bit broad compared to the conventional RI signature, but quite impressive for a system of this intensity nonetheless.

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

The convection building around the eyewall is clearer here.. nice little ring developing.

could be approaching hurricane by 11pm.. maybe 2am if this keeps up.

Strong vortical hot towers developing a feeder band to the west of it as well.

[Rail Dawg]

Dang guys I did boat rescues in Harvey then travelled to Naples to observe Irma pass over.

Texas and Florida lost a lot economically these past couple weeks.

Good odds the US has another one coming.

[Nimbus]

To be quite honest, this really doesn't look good for the Antilles.... Residents within the cone should be immediately preparing for potential hurricane impacts. I wouldn't be surprised if Maria is a hurricane by tomorrow morning at this rate. SHIPS-RII is calling for a 48% chance of a 25 kt intensity increase in 24 h. That would bring Maria to hurricane strength. I would like to see a more recent microwave pass. If the 37-GHz cyan ring has contracted, then I think all systems are go for RI. As of now, the ring was a bit broad compared to the conventional RI signature, but quite impressive for a system of this intensity nonetheless.

Been sliding west along 12N for a while now doesn't seem to want to gain latitude exactly as forecast.

Preps have to be made for the worst assumptions.
Unfortunately its going to come down to local wind field analysis again for some folks. If you end up on the south side of this storm 20 miles you might just lose power, live on the north side of the track and you typically need at least 50 miles to miss the highest eyewall winds.

[Alyono]

may move close to Martinique or Dominica given its current motion

[MGC]

The satellite presentation of Maria is just as impressive as Irma was when Irma was a TS. This could be another big one.....MGC

[GCANE]

New 37GHz fix.
Almost a full degree south of forecast points and nearly due west.

[DelrayMorris]

I wonder if we will get our power back before we need to prepare for this one. So...very...tired.

[WeatherGuesser]

yes, fortunately we arent look at cat 5 irma rolling through there but plenty of intensity to cause problems, be prepared for at least 5 days and secure your property as best you can...3 days supply isnt enough and emergency managers and media need to stop it with the 3 day, its 5 day minimum with gas for the generator, food and most importantly water...

It's fairly common that I don't go to town for three weeks at a time or longer. I never run out of supplies between trips.