ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Convective burst 25.8N 88W
Recon is just south of it.

[Cpv17]

I am definately watching those names with a H can sneak up on people...

Models are honing in on an area from Vic to CC for very high qpf totals.

[HurricaneBrain]

I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.

[GCANE]

Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.

[wxman57]

I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.

I agree, broad, weak circulation without any organized convection. No wind to 20 kts yet. Heading for NE side now. No Hanna today. Tomorrow night...

[Aric Dunn]

Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.

yeah should find a solid wind switch shortly if they turn to the NW.

also likely plenty of higher winds to the E, SE and NE. a little aways from center.

[Hurricane Mike]

I don’t think the NHC will upgrade it to TD today/tonight but tonight would be the ideal time to initiate PTC advisories. I would expect 75% of the TX coast to have TS watches and warnings by midnight.

I agree, broad, weak circulation without any organized convection. No wind to 20 kts yet. Heading for NE side now. No Hanna today. Tomorrow night...

Agree, nothing tonight but a definite Tropical Storm or even hurricane threat for Texas in 2-4 days, IMO.

[wxman57]

Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away!

[GCANE]

Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.

yeah should find a solid wind switch shortly if they turn to the NW.

also likely plenty of higher winds to the E, SE and NE. a little aways from center.

Waiting to see what rain rate they measure.

[Aric Dunn]

That was a weird turn.. definitely defined circ.. why they are avoiding it.. idk lol

[GCANE]

Recon took a left turn. Heading into the burst.

yeah should find a solid wind switch shortly if they turn to the NW.

also likely plenty of higher winds to the E, SE and NE. a little aways from center.

Waiting to see what rain rate they measure.

Winds picking up. 15 knts SFMR

[GCANE]

That was a weird turn.. definitely defined circ.. why they are avoiding it.. idk lol

https://i.ibb.co/0YRFf2T/Capture.png

About two minutes ago, I was just thinking about the infamous "Back Up, Back Up" from Reed Timmer.

[GCANE]

Just checked CIMSS.
Twin vorts.

[floridasun78]

Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away!

aric calling pilot tell them keep looking

[MGC]

91L is clearly NOT a TC yet. Broad circulation, limited convection. We shall see what tonight brings. Most likely will be better organized by tomorrow morning. NHC might consider PTC advisories later tonight. Should be a moderate to top end TS by landfall in Texas......MGC

[wxman57]

Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away!

aric calling pilot tell them keep looking

[Craters]

I might be misinterpreting this, but it seems to me that the GOES-EAST mid-level water-vapor channel (Band 9) is showing quite a bit of relatively dry air surrounding a good bit of our friend:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=gm&band=09&length=24

I'm wondering if that's what's keeping the convection from taking off. The upper- and lower-levels (check the band-selection dropdown), on the other hand, don't seem to have much of a moisture problem.

[Craters]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

GCANE --

A question showing my ignorance, here -- do you have any idea how they get CAPE data for locations like that, out in the middle of nowhere?

Thanks...

It comes from models which would then be an estimate.
Exactly what obs they use and the differential equations I am not sure.

Okay -- that makes sense. I was wondering if some genius came up with a way of deriving CAPE values from satellite observations, buoy data, and sunspot activity or something. Guess not.

Thanks!

[Cpv17]

Ha! Now the recon plane is just teasing you guys. Run away!

aric calling pilot tell them keep looking

Possibility that you might not get much rain from this in southwest Houston. Could be a sharp gradient to your south/sw.

[fendie]

Perhaps the plane is also interested in sampling the area out ahead of the area of lowest pressure.